Where the $$ are at micro NLH

I used to play too many hands. I played sc's, 1 gappers, and other junk. A few months ago, I used PT2 to analyze where my winnings were coming from, which hands consistently won $$ - and how much they won.

The results surprised me, but this is why people say "tight is right." I filtered to 38k hands 10nl 6max, overall win rate of 6+ ptBB/100.

Gross Winnings: $890
Rake: $440
Net Winnings: $450
Rakeback: $133

Overall net poker winnings including Rakeback: $583.

1. Top 8 NLH hands (AK, 88+): $530 won.
Hands: 1500, 4% of total hand dealt (perfect odds say 3.95%).

2. PP's (22 - 77): $105 won.
Hands: 850, 2.25% of hands (perfect odds say 2.71%)

3. Premium Aces (A9+) and KQ: $150 won.
Hands: 2800, 7.4%

4. All sc's and suited 1-gappers: $60 won.

These 4 hand groupings account for $845 of $890. The rest is accounted for by bad aces, connectors and playing other junk from position or in blind vs. blind battles. In difficult hands, that are hard to play. That tend to win small or lose big. So 90% of poker profit is made on easy-to-play, win-big or lose small hands.

Lessons I learned:
1. I would have beaten the game playing only the Top 8 hands.
2. Only 10% of Holdem hands are consistently profitable, and only 8% are consistently profitable from all positions.
3. Playing anything outside the Top10% PROFITABLY requires (A) positional advantages, (B) reads, and (C) experience.
4. 95% of poker winnings come from10% or less of all hands dealt.

There are other lessons here. But if you're a losing noobie player like I was, consider this.

Are you playing only profitable hands in profitable positions? If you aren't, WTF??

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Your welcome.

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Your welcome.

I've been thinking about this lately too...

Originally Posted by Robb

Lessons I learned:
1. I would have beaten the game playing only the Top 8 hands.
:

But your not gonna get paid in a major why by playing only Top 8 hands. Gotta give perception of giving action to get action at least.

Tight is Right, but Loose Maniac perception can get you the monies too! It's all about style and experience with that style.

Originally Posted by Smith

I've been thinking about this lately too...

Originally Posted by Robb

Lessons I learned:
1. I would have beaten the game playing only the Top 8 hands.
:

But your not gonna get paid in a major why by playing only Top 8 hands. Gotta give perception of giving action to get action at least.

Tight is Right, but Loose Maniac perception can get you the monies too! It's all about style and experience with that style.

I'm writing generally for noobies and micro-grinders. Playing even 20% of your hands is too loose at 6max 10nl, imo. And noobies often play too loose, worrying that they're "losing value" if they don't play sc's and Axs. LoL. They're spewing, mostly. I think most folks agree that playing more like 10-12% of your hands is perfect for beginners, and they're not giving up much value at 10nl 'cuz no one's really paying attention to how tight they are. They still get hella action on their big hands.

vn post Robb

My first experience came from 200K hands at $5 & $10NL FR... where tight is not only right, it's essential. You'll get creamed at those levels playing loose against nut campers -- winning lottsa blinds and small pots but getting stacked far too often in the process.

Went to 6max and am running 6+BB/100 over 15K hands to date. Yes, can loosen up IF and WHEN your post-flop skills (hand reading, pot control, positional aggression) catch up with your pre-flop skills. Remember that playing 2nd and 3rd tier hands, even in position, give you a much weaker foundation to start you post-flop plan from -- and therefore make for much more difficult decisions.

15K hands isn't sh!t -- but I'm recognizing a pattern at these levels. Steal blinds, poke aggressively and then back off when appropriate, take down small pots opportunistically (usually in position) keeps me ahead of the blinds and maybe contributes a BB/100 or two... The money is coming from the monster hand stack-offs -- and most of those are coming from big flopped hands... QQ+ over pairs, AA-KK PF stack-offs, and flopped sets from mid+ pocket pairs.

Took me about 80K hands to learn that taking people's stacks with monsters every 3-400 hands don't mean sh!t if I proceed to give it all back over the hands in between by p!ssing it away at the margins. But I'm a little dense....

Originally Posted by sarbox68

My first experience came from 200K hands at $5 & $10NL FR... where tight is not only right, it's essential. You'll get creamed at those levels playing loose against nut campers -- winning lottsa blinds and small pots but getting stacked far too often in the process.

Went to 6max and am running 6+BB/100 over 15K hands to date. Yes, can loosen up IF and WHEN your post-flop skills (hand reading, pot control, positional aggression) catch up with your pre-flop skills. Remember that playing 2nd and 3rd tier hands, even in position, give you a much weaker foundation to start you post-flop plan from -- and therefore make for much more difficult decisions.

15K hands isn't sh!t -- but I'm recognizing a pattern at these levels. Steal blinds, poke aggressively and then back off when appropriate, take down small pots opportunistically (usually in position) keeps me ahead of the blinds and maybe contributes a BB/100 or two... The money is coming from the monster hand stack-offs -- and most of those are coming from big flopped hands... QQ+ over pairs, AA-KK PF stack-offs, and flopped sets from mid+ pocket pairs.

Took me about 80K hands to learn that taking people's stacks with monsters every 3-400 hands don't mean sh!t if I proceed to give it all back over the hands in between by p!ssing it away at the margins. But I'm a little dense....

+1

That's how we roll.

I think the main post here can be completely quoted for truth, with the one qualifier that it is true if you want to become a winning player while not being a particularly good player. I think it's particularly valuable to have a post once in a while that outlines how we can learn specific lessons from studying the statistics we have assembled through playing hands.

I've thought a bit about poker the last 3 or so months and played a smallish amount of hands (30k or so) and one of the things I think about the most is how best to learn. I ask myself sometimes how to maximise my learning per hour rather than my earning per hour.

While I am completely convinced that learning a tight-aggressive style of poker is the easiest way to become a winning player I am not convinced that it is the most effective way to learn to play poker. It may well be that the most effective way of learning is in reading and writing forum posts, doing hand analyses and hand reading exercises and picking one poker skill to focus on practicing every time you sit down at a table. It may also be that the most effective way of learning poker while playing is to play loose. But it is probably also the more costly, and anyone considering this should consider if trading earning for learning is going to put them on tilt. For many learning poker players it is only fun as long as they make a profit every month and if they end up having a losing month they might be discouraged from playing again.

On a completely generic level I think there is an argument for introducing risk (lower expected EV, higher variance) if there is a reward (such as faster learning), but it is a delicate decision and it is certainly not wrong for a beginner to learn "tight is right", but there will come a time where the potential of that playstyle will be reached.

I agree with ponyboy!

Originally Posted by Erpel

I think the main post here can be completely quoted for truth, with the one qualifier that it is true if you want to become a winning player while not being a particularly good player.

... just as the first time you sit down at a table on line with a dope starting hand list, you still suck. You're abs right -- it comes in stages... and for most people it starts with making the first decision correctly -- PF hand selection based on position. If they don't, they'll p!ss away way more money just getting that first step straight....

Big PF hands make for the easiest decisions post-flop, and if you only ever play TT+ or set-hunt you're post-flop skills gonna stunt out real quick. Evidence -- the pack of set-hunters at FR ... many making money, few learning great poker, and almost none would not have the sh!t exploited out of them later on...

At some point you gotta get good a post-flop... period.

That's actually one of the reasons I flipped to 6max for a bit. I see way more situations, get the oppty to play far more hands post- and in thinner spots than FR... I'm finding it a much better place in the micros for improving post-flop.

Originally Posted by sarbox68

At some point you gotta get good a post-flop... period.

That's actually one of the reasons I flipped to 6max for a bit. I see way more situations, get the oppty to play far more hands post- and in thinner spots than FR... I'm finding it a much better place in the micros for improving post-flop.

Sarbox is right about the differences between FR and 6max, and there are many, many differences in post-flop play as we progress up the levels.

Examples:
1. 10nl has very little preflop 3betting, but 25nl has a good bit more, so playing postflop in 3bet pots is a skill we're only likely to learn at a higher level.
2. 10nl is often what Fnord calls "2 street bingo," where most hands are decided by the flop. If Villain is still there for the turn card, he's showing down. If he isn't showing down, he doesn't see the turn. So learning to play the turn well is probably going to occur at 25nl or 50nl.
3. Playing hands against aware opponents is a difference, but there are so few of them at 25nl and below that it will take a while to get good at it.

While Erpel has a point as far as it goes, we'll learn plenty about playing poker by sticking to a TAGG style and progressing up the levels.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Your welcome.

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Your welcome.

Whoops.

I mean

Whoops.

So what's the best way to study post flop play? This is something I'm really trying to work on but at low limits it seems like donks don't know what betting means. And I hear your pain about winning small, losing big - seems that is all that's happening lately.

Originally Posted by ponyboy

And I hear your pain about winning small, losing big - seems that is all that's happening lately.

Learn the lesson of pot control. It took me a long time to get the basics of that, but as has already been established, I'm dense...

It's not about aggression. It's about selective and accurate aggression. And unlike limit, bloated pots at NL can kill you. I think learning the "big pot, big hands - small pot, small hands" addage, and how (and when) to make it happen in different situations is one of the biggest "A-hah's" to consistently crushing micro NL.

There's a time to bet... to raise... and yes, to check. (Isn't that like some crazy biblical Job sh!t or something...?)

The light bulb on this lesson alone (and subsequently getting more skilled at it...) has taken me from break-even poker to consistent winning at the $10NL, and is critical skill to break the big pot/small pot cycle of death...

When the pot starts getting big, you really need to ask yourself what villain has that he wants to play a big pot, then ask yourself if you really want to play a big pot against that range of hands.

Originally Posted by sarbox68

There's a time to bet... to raise... and yes, to check. (Isn't that like some crazy biblical Job sh!t or something...?)

Ecclesiastes - Time mourn, time to dance, time to raise, time fold...

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Your welcome.

Originally Posted by ponyboy

Great post - really puts things in perspective. Thanks!

Your welcome.

Whoops.

I mean

Whoops.

I LoL'd :P

Originally Posted by ponyboy

So what's the best way to study post flop play? This is something I'm really trying to work on but at low limits it seems like donks don't know what betting means. And I hear your pain about winning small, losing big - seems that is all that's happening lately.

You can check out this post of mine: Problem Solving and Cbets. Warning, it's a long post that's mostly about how to attack a poker problem using the ideas mathematicians have analyzed about great problem-solving and the techniques they use. But I was working on my cbetting at the time, which is the hard part of flop play. I mean, hells bells, everyone knows how to play AA on an Axx flop.

Quick thoughts about made hands. Know which are vulnerable, and bet them hard: PSB or 3/4's minimum. Know which hands are likely to hold up, and NEVER slow play unless its quads: bet half to 2/3's pot.

Vulerable Hands? Two pair, TPTK, underpair like QQ on a KT2 flop. Solid hands? Combos (AKs on a K87 board with two of your suit), sets, flushes. Straights are great, but vulnerable in many spots. Big flushes on the turn are vulnerable with the board paired. That sort of thing.

Getting the made hand betting right together with cbetting often and productively, and your flop play will be very solid.

I was playing 50NL 6max pre UIGEA and I could run 16/14 and show the same winrate I did playing 30/25

1) I was better post-flop (they were terrible, not saying I'm good)
2) They basically played they're own cards

It doesn't matter if you're tight at 10NL because they're playing their cards, not your image. They might notice you're more aggressive, but they won't relate it to starting hand selection. You can open up and get some experience post flop and reading hands, but opening up (giving action to get action) it won't directly help your win rate at 10NL.

1 exemption is if you have position on a spewy ATM. You can raise almost any 2 for isolation.

Originally Posted by swiggidy

I was playing 50NL 6max pre UIGEA and I could run 16/14 and show the same winrate I did playing 30/25

1) I was better post-flop (they were terrible, not saying I'm good)
2) They basically played they're own cards

It doesn't matter if you're tight at 10NL because they're playing their cards, not your image. They might notice you're more aggressive, but they won't relate it to starting hand selection. You can open up and get some experience post flop and reading hands, but opening up (giving action to get action) it won't directly help your win rate at 10NL.

1 exemption is if you have position on a spewy ATM. You can raise almost any 2 for isolation.

+1.
you don't need to worry about being a great player at micros because there's enough bad players to destroy just using ABC fundamental poker. just worry about getting a good winrate to move up levels so you can get to a level with thinking players. then, start learning to play. that might sound kinda counter-intuitive but its not. the easiest analogy to use would be playing a video game on easy. it takes you 20 minutes to learn a basic strategy and then you run with it until you beat the game. so there's no real learning involved. move up to medium difficulty, and you find that basic strategy didn't work. so now, you are forced to do one of three things: create a new winning strategy, tweak the one you have, or a little bit of both. And then.........you get to legendary and you find out the invisible elites have your number, so you have to do the process again. poker's the same way. if playing only 8 hands is going to win you money (because you know, thats your goal right? to make money?) then do it until you aren't winning money. then find out why you aren't and tweak.

Originally Posted by swiggidy

I was playing 50NL 6max pre UIGEA and I could run 16/14 and show the same winrate I did playing 30/25

I have tried 16/14 and 30/20 at 10nl, with a 6 ptBB/100 winrate for tight and about a 4 ptBB/100 win rate for the looser. The looser image occurred at a particular site that was incredibly loose-passive pre and amazingly weak-tight post - but it only lasted a month. "Opening up" can cost you $$ if you don't know what you're doing.

And there's this thing in poker called rake, which (being a tax on winning hands) means players should try to win medium to big pots. Giving lots of action in raked games is a good way to win lots of small pots which don't amount to much after rake and the inevitable losses we sustain when playing mediocre hands.

The whole online game is set up (if you study the game theory behind it) to reward tightness, and since most folks (me included) like to play instead of fold, it makes playing tight enough to win big a skill very few will master.

theres still so many bad people at 100 and 200nl you can still just table select and make like 100k a year

just play Thurs-Sun eve only

Originally Posted by mixchange

theres still so many bad people at 100 and 200nl you can still just table select and make like 100k a year

just play Thurs-Sun eve only

I don't understand your point. Aren't the same hands the big profit points at 100nl and 200nl? And don't they make the most amount of money there, too? What type of image do you have at 100nl? 15/12? 20/15? FR or 6max?

Or did you have another point I missed?

For what it's worth, I ran 21/13 today playing 6 max. I made $250, of that $41 was raising hands other than AK/22+/Tens-or-better-suited on the button.

Once you get to the $1/$2 level online, stealing small pots from multi-tablers becomes a pretty key revenue stream and 55-22 go way down in value as people stop stacking off with one pair in unraised and lightly raised pots.

Also, another reason I play so many hands is that it makes it more difficult for aware players to figure out when I have a top hand. If you run a low PFR, you will get less action on your big money-making hands.

Originally Posted by Fnord

For what it's worth, I ran 21/13 today playing 6 max.

Being able to read souls helps, I bet

Also, 21/13 isn't all that loose at 6max, especially not if Hero's positionally aware. I'm just cautioning folks playing the micros to not think they're "giving up value" if they're playing 14/10 at 10nl 6max.

I think most of us agree that as long as you're still getting plenty of action your big hands preflop (AA, KK) and your sets post flop, you're probably not playing too tight. And when villains begin being able to make adjustments, you'll probably have the experience to play a wider range with precision.

At least, I hope that will happen for me!!

Bumpage for epicness ITT and to remind myself where teh mannies are at.