What range can we put Villain on?

villain is 27/4.5/2, though at the time it was only over 45 hands or so.

folding seems silly to his cutesy bet but, how do we proceed here? a raise seems like banging our heads against a wall with no reads. he seems so like to have an overpair and who knows if he's even folding his AJ here? (i've seen this happen so many times, i've just given up on bluffing players who have missed broadways make up the majority of their range). we can call but now what? donk float the turn? we have 6 outs and for all we know they're all dirty.


Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($7.03)
Hero (SB) ($21.57)
BB ($5.64)
UTG ($11.98)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
UTG bets $0.35, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.15, BB calls $1.05, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.65) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.70

as an anterior question, what do you guys thinking of using the chat box to gain information on past hands? i've been taught to not come off as an educated poker player, but honestly how are players gonna adapt at this level? call me down less often? after wtf'ing villain after this hand i got a pretty good sense of what he had and picked up some valuable reads from the convo

cbet flop. his range is too wide when you check to him

call, get a third spade and shove turn obv
why, were you just going to c/f AQ after 3bing?

also not a huge fan of the 3b because even if it's over 45 hands, 4.5 PFR is TT+,AQ+
ok say he's just not getting any good cards, still, over 45 hands it's CLEAR he doesn't open a wide range

even if his range is really 22+,AT+ (10%), our equity against that range (if he calls all 3b) is 46% IF HE CALLS EVERY TIME
if our 3b makes him fold AT we're in more trouble

as far as ranges on the flop, let's put him on the wider range and see what happens:

Hand 0: 61.567% { 22+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 38.433% { AsQc }

let's put him on a tighter range:
Hand 0: 69.513% { TT+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 30.487% { AsQc }


if we brick on the turn we go down to something like 22%
he'd have to continue on the flop with something like QQ+,AK for us not to have odds to call the flop

we also have to shove any time we get a spade, ace, or a queen because he's not full stacking and if those are not outs that's too bad

c/f the flop vs. this guy

I'd just call PF the majority of the time here against this player.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

c/f the flop vs. this guy

I'd just call PF the majority of the time here against this player.

but we have a backdoor draw his bet doesn't seem too strong

I'll call up to 1/3 pot

against a 4.5 pfr, be careful when you 3bet and even more careful when you get a call. i misread your hand as AsQs

c/f is the best line here imo

sorry to waste all of iopq's very detailed post but, villain was not the original PFR lol. UTG raised, i 3bet HIM, then the villain called out of the BB (the original raiser folded preflop). if he were the PFR, i would be less baffled by his range.

also forgot to mention that his call pfr% is 15 so his range includes a lot going to the flop.

i don't even think it's POSSIBLE to 3bet the BB unless you limp/raise

oh, I thought we were up against UTG
but even then that bet is like 2x, 4x, 7x, 22+
all kinds of silly crap

I don't think I'm 3betting, and then folding overcards without a good reason

Originally Posted by iopq

oh, I thought we were up against UTG
but even then that bet is like 2x, 4x, 7x, 22+
all kinds of silly crap

I don't think I'm 3betting, and then folding overcards without a good reason

ok but the more important part of the question was how do we proceed? i'm assuming if we don't pick up a pair or a draw on the turn we're c/f'ing. but what do we do if our hand improves to...

a) a pair: this one's easy, so you need not bother answering this one
b) a nut FD: i'm just assuming we're check calling here
c) a GSSD: don't see how this much improves us. c/bluff doesn't seem very effective 'cause he's so unlikely to be double barrelling a 3 or 5, and he's unlikely to get off his overpair. i don't feel like we have enough clean outs to justify c/c'ing here.

well if he keeps betting weakly on each street we sometimes have fold equity
so in the case of turning a flush draw I just c/shove because a spade is a scare card, especially if all he has is a small pair
and given his betting pattern he's often weak rather than strong

and if he doesn't bet we get to see a river card so we're not super unhappy
and sometimes we miss, and end up checking it down to the river because he has A5 decides to "semibluff" the flop, missed the turn and take a free card and tries to show down ace high on the river

that said, I probably would call the turn incorrectly sometimes and try to bluff the river... I wouldn't advise that

If your not firing the turn, don't bet the flop. 3betting pre and Cbetting the flop with intentions to C/F the turn is not good

i know it becomes a leak at mindstakes to cbet too much in 3bet pots, but i virtually always get folds at the micros. I think a lot of people think "oh good, a 3 bet, he must have aces. Ill call and stack him when i hit 2pair+, and i can fold otherwise". Just over half pot gives you very good odds when you dont have it, and still builds a pot pretty fast when you do.

good to know. thanks for the analysis. fwiw, i folded and had a little chat in the chatbox with him, where i got two good nuggets of information:

one: i felt pretty certain that he (semi-)bluffed with overs
2: he wasn't the brightest bulb in the poker shed and thought that i was a weak/tight player (separate thoughts, didn't think he was dimwitted BECAUSE i was weak/tight, just foudn those two things out)

i didn't have enough confidence in my arsenal of plays and my discipline with those to proceed profitably so i took the image hit and laid it down.

Haven't seen anyone mention stack size yet . By the time he's made his 70c bet on the flop he's only got a pot sized bet left. Is there a case for shoving over him with the two overs and backdoor flush draw to come or calling and reevaluate on the turn ?. Was he a short stacker to start with ? or was he a full stack that hasn't reloaded?.

started out full and let it dwindle.

i don't know if his ss makes me any more inclined to continue though because my value seems to be in implied odds. for whatever reason i don't feel comfortable bluffing here. he's more or less tight, and his bet doesn't say to me that he's trying to push me off the hand. and do back doors really add much to my value as a semi bluff?