Two hands: Chasing with 65s

Two hands where i chase with 65s, i have equity and am getting implied odds. Just wondering if i should have turned my chase into a bluff somewhere along the way.

Hand 1
Villain is loose. 73/0 over 34, but more indicative is that he led out every street OOP with TT on a KQx flop against a nit. PF giving him a wide range 22+, Ax, 32s, 32o, QT+.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.44)
UTG ($5.01)
MP1 ($16.87)
MP2 ($2.52)
Hero (CO) ($5)
Button ($4.78)
SB ($1.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6, 5
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BB calls $0.05, MP1 calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.42) 10, 4, 3 (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30, 2 folds

Turn: ($1.02) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.75

River: ($4.02) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $3.54 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $4.02 | Rake: $0.26

Hand 2
Villain is 10/6 over 395. I have only seen him play with pocket pairs and broadway As and never seen him 3bet from BB. He 2barrels aggressively OOP in EP. Id put him on JJ+ PF. QQ+ after the flop.
Part of me thinks that i should just let it go PF but i have been trying to be alot more aggressive in select spots to protect my red line. I'm a 4:1 underdog PF but i have implied odds.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($22.46)
UTG ($5)
MP1 ($8.58)
Hero (MP2) ($5) I was in CO. Hand converter bugs if table is short?
CO ($4.75)
Button ($3.85)
SB ($5)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6, 5
3 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.45, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.92) 4, 3, Q (2 players)
SB bets $0.92, Hero calls $0.92

Turn: ($2.76) A (2 players)
SB bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80

River: ($6.36) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $1.83 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $6.36 | Rake: $0.42

First hand you were bluffing, you were the one betting! I think as played is perfect.

Second hand, I'd probably go mental on the flop if I got this far. We're actually ahead of pretty much any realistic range we give him. QQ+ gives us 51%. I'd raise this for sure, he folds his AK if he can have it and shoves his QQ+, allowing us to get it in with the better equity. And if he has KK/AA only, all the better, we're up to 54%. And we might have fold equity against a nit holding KK/AA in this spot.

*AK diamonds is the only hand we don't want to see, that's the only hand he can have capable of destroying our equity. Does he pot this at the flop? I'm not sure.

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

H2 -- You have a lot of equity on this flop against his range, raise it up.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'd raise this for sure, he folds his AK if he can have it and shoves his QQ+...*AK diamonds is the only hand we don't want to see, that's the only hand he can have capable of destroying our equity. Does he pot this at the flop? I'm not sure.

Thanks for posting. At the time my thinking was villain is getting it all-in so why not leave ourselves an out. We dont need to raise the pot for a later shove. I think AdKd would take this line.

Originally Posted by !Luck

H1: I am tempted to check it back as you don't have great fold equity against 3 villains, sure some of them will fold things that beat you, but there are just too many and it would be tragic if someone raises you BIG and you have to fold. so check it back.

I'm betting to build the pot, not fold out everyone. I have equity to call should somebody shove over.

Originally Posted by couriermike

agree with everybody, hand 1 is good, hand 2 raise big (or even just shove) otf when you have so much equity and some FE, as played, fold turn, you only have 25% equity, not enough to call.

Turn is an easy call with implied odds

1.80/10.02 = 18%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.250% 31.25% 00.00% 165 0.00 { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 68.750% 68.75% 00.00% 363 0.00 { QQ+ }

Originally Posted by Openside

I think AdKd would take this line.

To be fair, it might well do. I'd certainly cbet it, and potting when semi-bluffing is effective when we get called, make our hand on the turn and then check it over... you wouldn't believe how much spew that induces, it's one of my favourite tricks!

But even if AdKd takes this line, it's ok, it's only part of his range. It's the only hand that crushes us, everything else he can 3bet pre with we are in good shape against.

Agree as played turn is a call based on implied odds, villain is committed to calling a river shove after his turn bet, but I'd much prefer to be all in already.

Originally Posted by Openside

Turn is an easy call with implied odds

1.80/10.02 = 18%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.250% 31.25% 00.00% 165 0.00 { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 68.750% 68.75% 00.00% 363 0.00 { QQ+ }

where do you get the 10.02 from? it looks like calling is close to breakeven so long as villain always stacks off when you hit.

ah, you shouldn't count your own future bets when figuring implied odds. here, you're risking 1.8 to win 2.76(pot)+1.8(villain's current bet)+1.83(what villain has behind)=6.39 which gives implied odds of 1.8/6.39 = 28%. so it's close, slightly +ev, assuming villian always stacks when you hit, which does seem likely here.

Originally Posted by couriermike

where do you get the 10.02 from? it looks like calling is close to breakeven so long as villain always stacks off when you hit.

ah, you shouldn't count your own future bets when figuring implied odds. here, you're risking 1.8 to win 2.76(pot)+1.8(villain's current bet)+1.83(what villain has behind)=6.39 which gives implied odds of 1.8/6.39 = 28%. so it's close, slightly +ev, assuming villian always stacks when you hit, which does seem likely here.

I got 10.02 via 2.76(pot)+1.8(villain's current bet)+1.8(our call) +1.83(what villain has behind)+1.83(what we have behind).

If its not 10.02 wouldnt it be 8.19? You are not counting our 1.8 call in your calculation.
1.8/8.19 = 21%, which is still an obv call.

Can somebody clarify? ty ty

Originally Posted by Openside

I got 10.02 via 2.76(pot)+1.8(villain's current bet)+1.8(our call) +1.83(what villain has behind)+1.83(what we have behind).

If its not 10.02 wouldnt it be 8.19? You are not counting our 1.8 call in your calculation.
1.8/8.19 = 21%, which is still an obv call.

Can somebody clarify? ty ty

Did some reading and you are right about not counting my future bet, but wrong in how you calculate your %. Implied odds are 6.39 : 1.8, as a ratio. As a % it is (1.8/(6.39+1.8))*100 = 21%.

hand 1 - played perfectly imo
hand 2 - call pre is close but fine. Flop you can shove with very limited fold equity and flip, or you can call. Turn is close.

i would have folded both preflop.... but as played they are both ok

H1 -- played fine. You don't want to 3bet the turn against a bad player -- semibluffs with small stacks behind are only profitable if the villain will fold some % of the time.

H2 -- You have a lot of equity on this flop against his range, raise it up.

H1: I am tempted to check it back as you don't have great fold equity against 3 villains, sure some of them will fold things that beat you, but there are just too many and it would be tragic if someone raises you BIG and you have to fold. so check it back.

H2: SHOVE. Worst case you get called be QQ and you have decent equity. Though he is tight, but who knows maybe he folds AQ here.

Hand 0: 40.303% 40.30% 00.00% 1197 0.00 { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 59.697% 59.70% 00.00% 1773 0.00 { QQ }

agree with everybody, hand 1 is good, hand 2 raise big (or even just shove) otf when you have so much equity and some FE, as played, fold turn, you only have 25% equity, not enough to call

flatting the small 3-bet pf with a longshot hand is good, not just because of the good price, but you have great implied odds vs the nit

Open,

If someone is raising you on flop 1 with a shove. I should consider folding since sets become so much more likely and considering it was just minraise pre there isn't enough dead money to make your call profitable versus a set. Plus this is micros and poeple suck at reading st raights so if you hit you will prob still be able to get decent amount of money in.

Originally Posted by !Luck

Open,

If someone is raising you on flop 1 with a shove. I should consider folding since sets become so much more likely and considering it was just minraise pre there isn't enough dead money to make your call profitable versus a set. Plus this is micros and poeple suck at reading st raights so if you hit you will prob still be able to get decent amount of money in.

Valid point about a shove. I have equity to call a raise. A shove would be a fold, getting out cheap. I highly doubt a set is shoving here, a shove would more likely be top pair/air. A set would raise for value.
However, i still disagree with the check. I think the pros out-weigh the cons.

I think it's important to be aware that whenever we flop an OESD and a FD (with no pair on flop obv), so long as the FD is live we're more or less flipping against even the strongest range, which means shoving the flop is always +ev thanks to dead money + fold equity.

Hand 1: Gotta call pre, no real question there. On the flop, if you decide you want to have a bluffing range, this has to be in it since it's the worse hand you have with decent equity. As played, the turn is one of the best cards to barrel possible. Then his raise size sucks so you get free manies by calling.

Hand 2: Gotta call pre, again. Note that one reason your implied odds are so good here is because his pre-flop range is so strong. On the flop a lot of people are going to insta want to raise because we flopped a combo draw, but I think it's close. You have to keep in mind that just because shoving is +EV, that doesn't mean that it's the correct play because calling could be more +EV. If you were deeper or he bet less on the flop, I would be in favor of calling, and if you were more shallow on the flop I'd be inclined to go ahead and get it in. As played, the turn call might be a mistake because a significant portion of his range has a set now and that gives you reverse implied odds on the Ad and 4d.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You have to keep in mind that just because shoving is +EV, that doesn't mean that it's the correct play because calling could be more +EV.

This is an interesting spot for the point you make. I guess I can see the logic though, hero has succeeded in avoiding stacking off in this spot when he is losing. If hero hits, does villain always stack off? If so then calling flop was better than shoving, we can see that because hero has lost less when his hand loses than I would have lost, yet we would both win the same when we hit. The difference is if villain can make a big fold if the diamond falls. If we think he can, then I would say shoving should be more +ev.