At my level (5NL/10NL) a lot of the wins comes from flopping a set and betting it up.
In general I've taken the advice that at this level its fine to value bet the flop and frequently with lower PP that works fine.

In general, when I've seen a drawing flop (usually 2-3 of a suit, but possibly a straight draw) I've bet strong to try to take the pot there or make them pay over the odds for their draw.

However I've recently read in Schlansky's Hold 'Em Poker that trips improve to a boat or better 33% of the time.

So now I'm thinking that it's probably worth giving good draw odds to those on a draw (especially to crowded pots) because they will hit their draw approximately 1 in 3. However of those 1 in 3 I will have hit my boat.

So they should win approximately 20% of these hands; and so its worth giving them 1:2 odds because in reality they're facing a 1:4 situation.

So even a potentially "dangerous" flop which gives me a set is worth value betting; no need to be more aggressive than that.

Does this make sense? Am I getting the wrong end of this stick?