TP OOP Facing Monochromatic Board

[Openside]

Villain is 37/34/3 over 657 hands. They are loose and call down light post flop. I think he has alot of Ahx, Qhx, worse kings and any two suited hearts in his range after the flop.

How do you play this hand?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

MP1 ($20.48)
MP2 ($10)
CO ($9.16)
Button ($3.50)
SB ($10.28)
BB ($14.01)
UTG ($9.53)
Hero (UTG+1) ($10.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, K
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40, 4 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 6, K, J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, MP1 calls $0.90, BB calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.95) 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 calls $3, 1 fold

River: ($9.95) 9 (2 players)
Hero.........

[MadMojoMonkey]

How do you play this hand?

How anyone but OP and Villain play this hand is irrelevant. Table dynamics and personal style are relevant facts.

Villain is 37/34/3 over 657 hands

Please post ranges when you post stats. It is as much for your own good at putting villain on ranges as it is for the quality of advice you'll receive.

They are loose and call down light post flop. I think he has alot of Ahx, Qhx, worse kings and any two suited hearts in his range after the flop.

Seems like your answer is right here, Openside. Since you didn't say anything about Villain bluffing missed FD's OTR, I think c/c, b/c, and b/r are poor lines. So you need to figure out how much to b/f.

What's the biggest bet that Villain calls?
What's the smallest bet to which Villain folds?

[Openside]

Please post ranges when you post stats. It is as much for your own good at putting villain on ranges as it is for the quality of advice you'll receive.

Thanks for commenting, you will find the range i put him on in the op. You actually quoted it.

I was leaning towards a c/f here. I didnt think i was getting much more value on the river with a bet. He folds all his missed draws and the majority of his calling range crushes me.

What do you think of my flop and turn sizing?

[daviddem]

So you need to figure out how much to b/f.

It's going to be hard for Hero to b/f with less than a 2/3PSB left in his stack...

shove imo because the 9d is not a very good bluff card for him. He probably also would check back worse K's, second pairs, etc... which you may get value from.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Thanks for commenting, you will find the range i put him on in the op. You actually quoted it.

Ah. What I meant was a range of pockets, not a range of hands. Something like what DoubleJ posted:
{ TT-22,AJs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }

Just take that hand range you've assigned and make it into the range of pockets Villain could have. Then check that each pocket makes sense, given the betting lines on prior streets.

It's not a bad idea to post your own ranges on each street, too.

What do you think of my flop and turn sizing?

Look fine to me, given a wet board. I'd consider a PSB OTF since it is mono and multi-way. I'm not saying I'd necessarily use PSB over 3/4 PSB, but I'd consider it and what it does to Villains' ranges.

It's going to be hard for Hero to b/f with less than a 2/3PSB left in his stack...

This is a very good point.

@OP: If Hero makes a tiny V-bet OTR, does Villain react the same as to a shove?
What does Villain do here to a min-bet?

[DoubleJ]

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, K

what was your plan for raising this hand pre with 7 to act after you?

Villain is 37/34/3 over 657 hands. They are loose and call down light post flop. I think he has alot of Ahx, Qhx, worse kings and any two suited hearts in his range after the flop.

hmmmm...yes, he's opening a lot PF, but he's playing them pretty aggressively (91%).

Dunno if we can put him on a wider calling range than {TT-22,AJs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo} PF

[daviddem]

KQ is a pretty good hand even in FR EP (I'd mostly open KQs and fold KQ, but that is also table dependent). For comparison, AJo and 66-88 are not in my UTG opening range.

There is a good old thread that discusses the merits of KQs here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...-a-184086.html

[DoubleJ]

I'd mostly open KQs and fold KQ, but that is also table dependant

aye, hence my question to OP.

also, i'd like to get your views on what kinda hands you think Villain might be calling 2 3-quarter-pot sized bet with on this board

murky buckets

[daviddem]

As per OP he is capable of calling with worse kings KT,K8. Maybe some second pairs like AJ. It's true it's not much to get value from but on the other hand it's unsure if he would bet his busted draws or turn his weak pairs into bluffs if checked to. He almost never has two pairs (other than K9) or a set because these would raise the flop.

meh... it'd be interesting to put him on a proper river range and split it between calling and folding when Hero shoves, then split it between check behind and shove when checked to. Then compare the EV of checking with the EV of betting.

[DoubleJ]

As per OP he is capable of calling with worse kings KT,K8. Maybe some second pairs like AJ...

and you concur with that? on this Flop? Seems like we'd be repping an awful lot of strength here

FWIW, i'm not challenging you or OP; just trying to learn.

[spoonitnow]

Pre-flop is okay, but folding is probably okay too. I would be surprised if you were behind his calling range on the river. I would prefer to shove KQ here, but I would also be okay with checking and calling about half the time (with Qh especially). I'd play AhQh, KK, JJ, 66, Th9h and AK the same way for value. Additionally, I think that AhQx would be the bottom of my range here, and I would probably shove some small amount (maybe 10-20 percent of the time) with that as well.

[DoubleJ]

I would be surprised if you were behind his calling range on the river

i don't get this - what range do you put him on after the Turn?

[daviddem]

@OP: if you check and he shoves, do you prefer calling or folding, and why?

[Openside]

@davidem I check/fold to pretty much any bet size. Villain is a calling station PF and is rarely aggressive. He is oblivious to what i have. He is checking behind here with worse K and second pair. I think he only bets out here with a range that crushes me.

Edit: I shoved the river.

[DoubleJ]

Villain is 37/34/3 over 657 hands.

Villain is a calling station PF and is rarely aggressive

huh? PF = Pre Flop or Post Flop here?

[Openside]

Sorry, post flop

[daviddem]

37/34 with a 3 Agg Factor. Seems over aggressive to me, not stationey.

edit: unless 3 is the preflop 3bet%?

[daviddem]

Board: 6h Kh Jh 5c 9d
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     59.574%      53.19%     06.38%                 25             3.00   { AhQh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KTs-K8s, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, AhKc, AhKs, KQo, KTo-K8o, QcTh, QdTh, QhTc, QhTd, QhTs, QsTh }
Hand 1:     40.426%      34.04%     06.38%                 16             3.00   { KdQc }

Doesn't look too good. 40% for Hero vs the river call-a-shove range I gave him:
AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h, KQs,KTs-K8s,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,AhKc,AhKs,KQo,KTo-K8o,QcTh,QdTh,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,QsTh

For his river calling range, I assumed he would either donk or c/r OTF with his AK combos that do not include the Ah, so these are not OTR. Similarly I assumed he would donk or raise the flop with flopped sets or two pairs. I gave him the QT combos that have at least one heart, which make him a river straight (assuming he is not chasing a straight without one heart in hand). Gave him quite a few slow played nut or second nut flopped flushes. Gave him lots of top pair/worse kicker. Did not include AJ.

[DoubleJ]

...I assumed he would donk or raise the flop with flopped sets or two pairs...

yep

...I gave him the QT combos that have at least one heart, which make him a river straight...

yep

...Gave him quite a few slow played nut or second nut flopped flushes...

aye aye

...Gave him lots of top pair/worse kicker. ...

struggling here

first off, i can't see him calling pre with o/suit broadways. he's loose, but he plays pre aggro, and if he calls there's a non-zero prob of him being OOP and multiway as well

secondly, is someone really gonna call 2x 3-quarter pot sized bets with TP/meh-kicker on that board?

feel free to berate me harshly

[spoonitnow]

There aren't any AJ in that range. If you add it, Hero has 52.586%.

Fun fact: If we had the Qh instead of the Qc, Hero has 58.824%.

[daviddem]

My bad, I was playing with/without AJ and I posted the no AJ version. I fixed my post above to say that I did not include AJ.

[daviddem]

I only included the weak top pair hands because of OP's read. But even with these included, it seems to be stretching it to justify a river value bet. I would tend to c/f, and there would be a case to be made for c/c if he bluffs most of the time when checked to.

secondly, is someone really gonna call 2x 3-quarter pot sized bets with TP/meh-kicker on that board?

He may find justified to call the flop and turn with top pair / meh kicker if his kicker is a heart. But then it's harder to see him calling a river shove.

I also wonder what hands a 37/34 flats preflop in MP. Also 37/34 at full ring is not just loose, it's more maniac.

[spoonitnow]

I only included the weak top pair hands because of OP's read. But even with these included, it seems to be stretching it to justify a river value bet. I would tend to c/f, and there would be a case to be made for c/c if he bluffs most of the time when checked to.

He may find justified to call the flop and turn with top pair / meh kicker if his kicker is a heart. But then it's harder to see him calling a river shove.

I also wonder what hands a 37/34 flats preflop in MP. Also 37/34 at full ring is not just loose, it's more maniac.

Two points to make here. First, short-handed players probably don't realize how loose 37/34 is in full ring. That would be something like 50/45 or so in six-max, for example.

Second, your logic on the bold doesn't make sense. From a point of view of balanced play, if a hand is only slightly too weak to value bet, then it goes into your check/call range instead of your check/fold range. Here's what Hero's range should look like on the river (not to scale):

<---bluff--|--check/fold--|--check/call--|--value bet-->

From the point of view of exploitative play, we'll need to have about 27% equity against Villain's betting range to make a +EV call. Being that bet bet check/call is the standard line to exploit loose idiots who can call twice with a lot of draws, it seems ridiculous to fold.

[DoubleJ]

...short-handed players probably don't realize how loose 37/34 is in full ring. That would be something like 50/45 or so in six-max....

true. i never even thought of that. however:

...what hands [does] a 37/34 flat preflop in MP...

is still an interesting question, 6Max or FR.

the only reliable way to find out is observation over a large number of hands, but what if we don't have that luxury?

Harrington has his rule-of-thumb thing of (VPIP-3bet)/2 for loose opponents. Does that have any value?

[daviddem]

First, do we always have to have a c/c range? Say for example we play against a nit who never shoves anything but the nuts when checked to, why should we have a c/c range? I mean maybe we have to have a c/c range if we want to play a balanced strategy, but it does not seem to me we necessarily have to have a c/c range in an exploitative strategy.

Second, even if we do have a c/c range, why should it be impossible that TPGK falls in our c/f range here, with maybe overpairs, two pairs and bottom set in the c/c range and top sets, straights and flushes in the value bet range? I mean when we get to the river, there is not much worse than top pair/2nd kicker in our range other than bluffs.

From the point of view of exploitative play, we'll need to have about 27% equity against Villain's betting range to make a +EV call. Being that bet bet check/call is the standard line to exploit loose idiots who can call twice with a lot of draws, it seems ridiculous to fold.

Yeah, I would tend to agree with this, I would expect a 37/34 maniac to be aggro enough to bluff a significant amount of the time (edit: although I would also expect him to semi-bluff a lot of his strongest draws OTF). I only stuck to OP's reads above. Some more post flop reads would be useful, sometimes preflop aggro donks shut down post flop. We are supposed to be facing an aggro-maniac and he did nothing but calling in this hand... makes me think that AhA may also be in his range if he is the kind who likes to slow play aces preflop.

[spoonitnow]

Second, even if we do have a c/c range, why should it be impossible that TPGK falls in our c/f range here

Because it's so close to being in our value betting range.

[spoonitnow]

...but it does not seem to me we necessarily have to have a c/c range in an exploitative strategy.

You're frequently advocating the optimal exploitative strategy, not just "an exploitative strategy."

[dranger7070]

If the 3 is AF I'd be pretty surprised to find hes a calling station postflop unless hes building and stacking off with meh hands in big pots.

With his stats and action so far, I smell a tarp.

Anyone prefer checking flop and going from there? We have relative position on the bb so if aggrofish bets we get to see how bb reacts first.

If it checks through we're happy to get two streets, and id be ok c/r and get it in otf vs this guy.

Thoughts?