top set vs turned draw completion?

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($4.65)
BB ($3.54)
UTG ($13.16)
MP1 ($11.58)
MP2 ($4.20)
CO ($4.42)
Hero (Button) ($10.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 5
1 fold, MP1 bets $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 4, 5, 3 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.25) 2 (2 players)
MP1 bets $2.25, Hero ?

table dynamic was pretty nitty for a couple rotations. opp was seen getting involved against a short stacker with ~40bb, donk pot betting a 7 high flushed board, and snap folding to a rrshove.

thoughts?

I'm folding if villain is nitish

fold even with the 13 outs, assuming villain doesnt hold aa?

3 aces, we split
3 2s, 3s, 4,s, we make a boat
and one 5 for quads

so 13 outs to win/tie, % to hit on one street is about 28%, we need 33% to call, and villain still has a nice stack behind him for some implied odds


persuasive?

Originally Posted by Zorkion

fold even with the 13 outs, assuming villain doesnt hold aa?

3 aces, we split
3 2s, 3s, 4,s, we make a boat
and one 5 for quads

so 13 outs to win/tie, % to hit on one street is about 28%, we need 33% to call, and villain still has a nice stack behind him for some implied odds


persuasive?

My question might be stupid, but what about a 6? That would be a split too, wouldn't it?

I'd fold if villain is nitty. Can't see him making this psb with anything but an ace and we just don't have the right price to call.

Out of interest, why no raise on the flop?

why didn't you raise the flop?

WTF @ FOLDING ?!?!?!?!?!?!

Originally Posted by bikes

WTF @ FOLDING ?!?!?!?!?!?!

I'll admit i posted without looking in stove, upon looking it appears i am quite the fool

Originally Posted by bikes

WTF @ FOLDING ?!?!?!?!?!?!

Posted without stoving first too! It appears we do just have the right price even if he holds and Ace and more than the right price if he bluff, which having re-read the OP it appears he is capable of.

oh, and don't fold now that you put yourself in this spot

don't you guys know that top set is a good hand? :P

i didnt raise flop because "opp was seen getting involved against a short stacker with ~40bb, donk pot betting a 7 high flushed board, and snap folding to a rrshove."


unless he holds an overpair in this spot, i figured that raising would just cause him to snap fold in a situation where he's basically drawing dead. on the other hand, just calling lets him keep initiative in the hand

Originally Posted by Zorkion

i didnt raise flop because "opp was seen getting involved against a short stacker with ~40bb, donk pot betting a 7 high flushed board, and snap folding to a rrshove."


unless he holds an overpair or overcards or a flush draw or a gutshot or thinks you're full of shit in this spot, i figured that raising would just cause him to snap fold in a situation where he's basically drawing dead. on the other hand, just calling lets him keep initiative in the hand

notes are dangerous sometimes, i'm not suggesting that you shove this flop..
this spot is not the same..