Top Set OOP on Mono Flop, Multiway

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from

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MP ($10.57)
Button ($6.45) VPIP: 37, PFR: 0, Agg: 2.0, FcBet: 1/5, Hands: 54
SB ($19.80)
Hero (BB) ($12.76)
UTG ($12.84) VPIP: 22, PFR: 13, Agg: 5.7, cBet: 5/5, Hands: 46

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
UTG bets $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40

i'm calling here primarily to set-mine vs UTG's opening range, but with the bonus of fish OTB.

Flop: ($1.55) 2, 6, 9 (3 players)
Hero ???

i've got 82% vs. UTG range; 10% of his range is Flushes, 28% of his range is Draws

i've got 82% vs. BTN range; 6% of his range is Flushes, 40% of his range is Draws

i can't really bet for value here (?) as the only worse hands that will call are FDs/SDs, and with 16 poss. nasty cards to come the chances of UTG and/or BTN hitting something seems to be too much of a risk (?).

my initial thought is to lead out big to take the 15bb of dead money

thoughts?

Ok it's been a while since I've played cash, but...

Why would you donk into an aggro pfr with 5/5 cbet over 46 hands? C/r instead?

Also, 99 is way better than just a setmining hand and can be called for value pre

You've got 7 flush beating outs OTF (any 2,6 or 9) and will pick up 3 more OTT if you don't improve.

What in the hell makes you think that you can't bet for value here?

You sound more worried about losing money than you are happy to make money vs feesh. U have top set ffs. Also it would be more useful if you give the ranges you used to come up with 82% than just giving the numbers.

Originally Posted by d0zer

You sound more worried about losing money than you are happy to make money vs feesh. U have top set ffs. Also it would be more useful if you give the ranges you used to come up with 82% than just giving the numbers.

.

That 82% comment makes no sense, how does an UTG open to 5x from a 22/13 have nearly twice as many flushes as a peel by a 37/0

Bet ldo. I'm firing around the pot seeing as we have fish in the hand.

my initial thought is to lead out big to take the 15bb of dead money

I'd be betting so fish call their draws at bad price. If you're just looking to take the pot down now, are you bluffing?

LOL! thanks for the responses guys; it's appreciated. i have no problem coming across like an idiot, as long as i learn something at the end of the day.

sooooo...where to start...

Ranges:
UTG PFR - AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s. Mebbe replace some suited As w/ smaller PPs.

BTN PF Call - Huge. all sorts of bollocks. AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o,65o,54o,43o,32o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s

@pascal - UTG doesn't have more flushes than BTN; he has a higher concentration of flush combos as a %age, compared to BTN, due to all the offsuit combos in BTN's range

@luco & @ongie - so yeh, OTF was a toss-up between bet ldo and CR.

HU i wouldn't have been so perplexed, but OOP m/way with my lack of experience, i really didn't feel like i could evaluate the risk of 1 or both opps hitting such a wet board.

from everyone's tone, sounds like i made too big a deal of it. i'll get to stoving it when i get onto the other PC.

so @spoon, there's my confusion - i'm betting, but i don't really have a better reason than "i prolly have the best hand right now".

which is a bit pants.

so what would your line be?

Of course you can bet for value vs UTG's JJ+ and flush draw + overs, and vs fish's flush draws, top pair, OESD.

I'm donking this 3/4 pot.

I'd lead for value vs both of them, and because the flop getting checked round is really bad for you.

If you were to lead the flop, I can't imagine a scenario where either of these players is going to have a calling range that is ahead of you.

It's probably worth noting that if they both call, then as long as you have more than 33% equity, your flop bet for value was +EV.

You only need 50%+ equity for a value bet to be +EV in a vacuum if you're facing one opponent. Against n calls, you need 1/(n+1) equity. For example, against 3 calls, you need 1/4 = 25%+ equity. People who play fixed-limit games probably understand this better. It's the same reason why you'd raise with four to a flush in seven card stud on fourth street against five opponents who were all in for a single bet already.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If you were to lead the flop, I can't imagine a scenario where either of these players is going to have a calling range that is ahead of you.

It's probably worth noting that if they both call, then as long as you have more than 33% equity, your flop bet for value was +EV.

You only need 50%+ equity for a value bet to be +EV in a vacuum if you're facing one opponent. Against n calls, you need 1/(n+1) equity. For example, against 3 calls, you need 1/4 = 25%+ equity. People who play fixed-limit games probably understand this better. It's the same reason why you'd raise with four to a flush in seven card stud on fourth street against five opponents who were all in for a single bet already.

Stud tip of the day: If you have four to a flush you are pretty much only behind two pairs, better flushes or trips/quads even heads up on fourth but obviously this doesn't take away from your point.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Stud tip of the day: If you have four to a flush you are pretty much only behind two pairs, better flushes or trips/quads even heads up on fourth but obviously this doesn't take away from your point.

ldfo using an extreme example for bc morans

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

It's probably worth noting that if they both call, then as long as you have more than 33% equity, your flop bet for value was +EV.

You only need 50%+ equity for a value bet to be +EV in a vacuum if you're facing one opponent. Against n calls, you need 1/(n+1) equity. For example, against 3 calls, you need 1/4 = 25%+ equity.

Thanks spoon; this is great stuff

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If you were to lead the flop, I can't imagine a scenario where either of these players is going to have a calling range that is ahead of you.

so what would UTG be calling with here?

if we go with the AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s PF range (do we?), that gives him 160 total combos, of which (OTF):-

9 Nut Flushes
6 non-Nut Flushes
1 baby Flush

15 Overpair + FD combos
15 Overpairs

6 TopPairs
6 88
6 Weak Pairs

12 Nut Flush Draws
18 Non-Not Flush Draws

3 OESDs

i'da thought a sizable lead would rep a lot of strength, and fold out his TopPairs, 88, Weak Pairs, OESDs and non-drawing Overpairs. Yes? No?

Which leaves him continuing with:-

9 Nut Flushes
6 non-Nut Flushes
1 baby Flush

15 Overpair + FD combos

12 Nut Flush Draws
18 Non-Not Flush Draws

or 36% or his holdings. OK so far?

EDIT: these are holdings i think he's either calling w/ or raising for value. ah huvnae included any bluffs. is this a mistake?

Here's a logic trick that can save you some time with this kind of stuff: Let's give UTG a range that is clearly stronger than he'll play and see what our equity is.

Against a range of JJ+ (only with a diamond) and every broadway combination of diamonds, we have an equity of 51.6%:

21,780 games 0.000 secs 4,356,000 games/sec

Board: 9d 6d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.635% 51.63% 00.00% 11246 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 48.365% 48.37% 00.00% 10534 0.00 { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KcKd, KdKh, KdKs, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, JcJd, JdJh, JdJs, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd }

The point is that if his range is weaker than that, then we are clearly ahead.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

i can't really bet for value here (?)

you have top set

@daven - apologies, it was a clumsily thought-out OP, for which i have been correctly chastised ITT

@spoon - that is super-cool. thanks again. [insert virtual beer smiley]