Raise flop bigger
Snap call the shove
Imagine you are 100% sure he has a straight. Your pot odds are 43.5% (call 1.66 for a chance to win a total pot after the call of 3.82). Your equity vs a straight is 38.1%. So you should not call.
However he shoves many more hands than a straight, which you all totally crush. These other hands being in his range easily bring your equity well above the required 43.5%.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html
edit: note that your pot odds are a little worse than what I said because of the rake. Based on 5% rake, you call 1.66 to win a 3.63 pot, so the pot odds are 45.7%, not 43.5%. Still a call though.
edit2: and to answer your original question, it is highly unlikely after 50 hands that this player is going to turn out being a 13/10 tagg if his stats are 47/2 at this point. You can be confident that he is a fish. Another hint is that he is not full stacked.
edit3: one thing to be wary of is when passive fishes suddenly start betting big post flop. If his post flop aggression was very low, you could maybe think that he only shoves sets and straights (and yes, it would STILL be a call, stove it). However, this one has a rather high post flop aggression so he probably likes donking and bluffing (or he is the kind who likes to min bet every street). Note that you have to be careful no to take post flop aggression figures for granted, because for some mysterious reason some of these fishes like to min bet just about every street, which will make their aggression stat artificially high. In that case, you have to make a note, and make the part between their min bets and value bets.
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Originally Posted by daviddem
