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 Originally Posted by JKDS
Originally Posted by borges
1) We make our decisions street by street in poker. If we're just making a decision on whether to call or not, we should just look at the odds of hitting our card on the next street. So we should be using the rule of 2 (not 4).
2) Minor point: the pot is 92 cents.
3) You can't determine if a move is EV with the procedure you've outlined. I think you are mixing up odds with probabilities. In your example you get the right answer however but mainly because it is so far off from being an EV call.
1 was explained in the example, and a few cents one way or another is usually not going to make a difference. In fact, we can often make reduce the pot and bet a little in order to make the mental math easier without drastically changing the result. For instance, here the pot was .57 and the bet was .35. We can simplify this to .6 and .4 making our L/(G+L) = .4/1 = 40% which is about 38%. If we change these probabilities into odds, im sure you'll find that the result is close to 2.5:1.
Also, for number 3 you can't refute a bunch of math by saying "no you can't". If you are going to make a blanket statement like "you cant determine if the call is EV" you need to explain yourself, because i clearly just showed you could  Additionally, as i hinted at above, during this calculation we get a comparison of percentages, ie, 8% < 40%. We can easily change these numbers into actual odds, but there is little point in doing so, as the inequality will still hold true and we still find that the odds are insufficient to justify a call.
Let
PW=probability of winning
P=size of pot
B=bet size you need to call
Then to determine if a call is +EV you need to check if the expected value of your action is positive. Thus
(PW)xP - (1-(PW))xB > 0 for a positive EV call: Performing some
simple algebra we can get the above equation into
PW > 1/( (P/B) + 1)
If we express PW in the form 1/x then we get my methodology
if x-1 is less than P/B, we should make the call.
I didn't realize that you were doing various other round off operations.
My profuse apologies. Upon my first reading, I thought you were comparing the pot odds directly to the probability of winning.....
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