ok villain is 11/5/3 3bet/ 88 fold to cbet/ 12 percent raise cbet/ 20ats

based on his ats compared to his pfr i would assume hes somewhat positionally aware. Obviously he is fit or fold, with such a high fold to cbet %, his range in this situation is [44+,ajo+,ats+,kqo]

obviously before posting the hand you can see that i want to try and exploit his fit or folded ness by bluffing a lot of flops (cbetting), and shutting down when he continues.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($5.05)
MP2 ($1.87)
Hero (CO) ($5)
Button ($5)
SB ($1.87)
BB ($3.45)
UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($10.07)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [22+a2s+a9o+,k9s+,kjo+,56s+,57s+] Hero bets $0.17, Button calls $0.17, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.41) 8, 7, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.41, Button raises to $1.10, [color=#666666] , hero???

His line vs me is very standard, as we know he is fit or fold he is only going to put money into the pot when he has something good.

ok so this was a great flop for me, but this flop really polarizes his range between clear folds and really strong hands. he is laying down all his missed non flush draw broadways and missed mp's (55,66), for a total of 75 combos, he is calling 5 broadway flush draw combos, he is raising sets, overpairs (45 combos)

so he folds 75/124- 60%
has my range crushed- 45/124 36%
has hands i can possibly extract some value out of-5/124 4%

so if i want my cbet to be break even i need to find out 60%(.41) - 40%(x)= 0 so
.24-.4x=0
.24=.4x
.6=x

so i can bet as much as 60cents into this pot and it still be break even. In reality i sohuld have bet about 1/3 of that (or 1/2 of what i bet) because they would have accomplished the same thing and made me money. I bet so high because i thought i was giving incorrect odds to a flush draw, however it is easy to see that he only has a flush draw a minimal percentage of the time.

In order to exploit his strategy i need to continue to cbet wide, and only continue with a slither of my range aka straights, straight flush draws, flush draws + pairs, and trips/overpairs

i hope i did this right please help me if i am wrong on any of my thinking