Spoonitnow homework (Making Our Strategies More Robust and Avoiding Auto-Pilot)

So you peel a gutshot on the flop because this board smashes his range and we have good implied odds when we hit our Q... but now we're setting up a multiple street bluff on a card where his c/c range could be strong'ish? (could have Jx, KQ, AK, AA)?

I seriously doubt he c/c Jx very often because of the two flush draws.

I think a nit can fold any one pair hand here a lot, so KQ/AK/AA are all the same hand from that point of view.

I suspect that although 25NL games can be agressive, they are so straightforward on the turn and especially river, that you're probably thinking in terms of what happens at your games - ie. that someone will notice I rep narrow and will bluffcatch, wheras in my games if someone calls the river here with a K it's normally because they are loose and passive postflop, rather than that they know they can only beat a bluff. I think people actually realising that I'm unlikely to have a J and bluffcatching is going to be limited to perhaps the top 5% or even 2% of 25NL players.

Not to mention we're trying to rep Jx and only Jx when FD's brick, is a risky proposition here.

I take it you're betting a river brick 5 as well?

Now I remember - I've already posted this hand!

Yeah, I take your point - I think the main thing to learn from this hand for me is that I should be aware if I'm going to bluff of when I rep narrow enough that people might notice how unlikely I am to have it.

Yes, I'd have bet a brick 5 as well. I think I'd have bet anything other than a K or another J.