Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
You spend a decade making ever closer guesses and being wrong a lot. (OK, that's just cynicism.)

The number of variables in trying to determine the total value of a post-flop scenario from a PRE-flop knowledge base is potentially huge.

Some simple scenarios may be easy to solve for, though. If Villain is short stacked and only has a PSB left in his stack, we can examine post flop scenarios in which only one bet happens (a shove from Hero or Villain).
Still... we need to solve that for a LOT of different flop textures, then try to move on to turn and river cards where the money didn't go in on the flop.

It's a very big question and mostly Villain specific (I'm guessing). I have never spent too much time thinking about this other than in the broadest terms of feels good / bad.
yeah, after renton explained the "R" in the call equation I realized im getting too technical, the point of this entire post is for me to able to check my plays vs. regs to make sure im not exploiting myself but doing a certain action in a certain spot too often or not enough.

* on the plus side, going through my HHs to find hands for equations I found bet sizing tells on 4 of the regs I play with very often. they are very reliable as well as most players have a tendency to bet certain ways with certain equities. after a large enough sample I was able to figure out what those represent which means more monies in my account.