70/17 over 20 hands.

Interesting question: Is that enough hands to be a mega-fish with a super-wide range in this spot?

At first I thought "no way".

Here are some numbers. Let's suppose a player sits at our table with a VPIP (over all the hands he plays) of N% Further, to simplify, suppose he always plays his top N% of hands if they are dealt to him. What is the probability that you see a VPIP >= 70 after 20 hands?

N Probability
20 0.00000185
24 0.00001791
28 0.00011564
32 0.0005516
35 0.001520662
40 0.006465875
49 0.04801279
50 0.05765915


What this table means is that you would reject the idea that a player with VPIP = 70 after 20 hands has a true VPIP of a minimum of 49 at the 5% level. In short, mega-fish.

I ignored the stats because of the sample size. Upon re-evaluating them and realising that 20 is enough to call the guy a mega-fish, I agree with a big raise/shove.

That was illuminating.