Set on flop facing c/r

This is a hand from last nights session. I think this hand is indicative of why i'm a break-even player. I'm not a stupid guy, but when i sit at the table and get that shot of adrenalin when i hit my hand i turn into a drooling retard.

Villain is 21/13 over 330 hands. I didn't stop to put him on a range until he reraised. After the flop I put him on 44+, 78o/s, 2s3s+. I didn't stop to calculate Equity, i knew given the range i would be over 50% and shoved.

Mistakes i made in this hand:
Range too wide.
Not paying attention. The check raise after the bet and call should have screamed at me that i am dominated. Over pairs don't check raise here, neither does the flush draw. Both bet out imo.

Against 44-66, 23o/s, 78o/s i have 37% equity, which is sufficient to call.

Was this a cooler or am i too agro?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($8.67)
Button ($9.49)
SB ($10)
BB ($18.03)
UTG ($14.37)
UTG+1 ($15.17)
MP1 ($4.96)
Hero (MP2) ($11.15)
MP3 ($5.89)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5, 5
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.40, 4 folds, BB calls $0.30, UTG+1 calls $0.30, MP1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.65) 5, 6, 4 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, BB raises to $2.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10.75 (All-In), BB calls $8

Turn: ($23.90) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($23.90) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $23.90 | Rake: $1.59

Ignoring a few other things, not raising this flop is really bad.

• You're giving good pot odds for those left to act by just calling (4-1).
• Board is very draw heavy, lots of turn's that either complete draws or stop you getting value from worse hands. (spades, 2, 3, 7, 8).
• Many worse hands will call a raise here since people can't hand read/put you on a range.
• Raising builds the pot and allows you to get it in on good turn cards.

As for your range I don't think he has 32o ever and not all of the 87o combo's. Sometimes he also has the NFD, pair/GS+FD or the rare 2 pair.

Nice cooler hand bro.

Raise flop and get it in. /end

I hear you on not raising.

Ok, if we modify his range to 66-44, 32s, 87s/o i have 38% Equity. I'm not giving him hands (over pair/two pair) that i crush.



Lets replay the hand given two different scenarios:
We call and he shoves the turn.

We call because we only need 33%. Assuming the turn doesn't improve either of us.

We raise MP1 3X to 2.25 and Villain shoves

We call because we only need 33%.

The villain shoving is a safe assumption given i know what he had

My overall thoughts are, yes, i played this badly but i was losing my stack even if i played it perfectly.

Originally Posted by Openside

I think this hand is indicative of why i'm a break-even player.

Getting coolered with sets is about the last thing you should be worried about as I'm sure you have a billion real leaks to worry about.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Getting coolered with sets is about the last thing you should be worried about as I'm sure you have a billion real leaks to worry about.

I hear you. Based upon PT3 ( 200,000 hands) my biggest leak by a country mile is my agression against flop raises holding sets or over pair. I am totally crushing myself with range calculations. The above hand is a good example (yes, very safe to assume that i was crushed on the flop).
Here is another hand from last night.

Villain 35/22, 17% 3bet PF. Same mistake as above, i don't stop to put him on a range until he raises me. When he raises the flop i put him on JJ+,88,AKs,KTs,T9s,AKo,KTo,T9o. So, basically i give him all possible sets, straights and straight draws. I have equity to shove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.976% 51.74% 01.24% 172098 4122.00 { JJ+, 88, AKs, KTs, T9s, AKo, KTo, T9o }
Hand 1: 47.024% 45.78% 01.24% 152298 4122.00 { AA }


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($13.54)
MP2 ($11.39)
MP3 ($13.11)
Hero (CO) ($10.25)
Button ($6.63)
SB ($3.68)
BB ($5)
UTG ($10.45)
UTG+1 ($3.24)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
2 folds, MP1 bets $0.35, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.95) J, 8, Q (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $1, MP1 raises to $4.95, Hero raises to $9.35 (All-In), MP1 calls $4.40

Turn: ($20.65) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($20.65) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.65 | Rake: $1.37

Originally Posted by Openside

I hear you. Based upon PT3 ( 200,000 hands) my biggest leak by a country mile is my agression against flop raises holding sets or over pair.

overpairs maybe. sets? don't worry so much about how you play sets, just get money in the middle and proffit.

Originally Posted by d0zer

don't worry so much about how you play sets, just get money in the middle and proffit.

What he said. On your original hand with the set of 5s, definitely raise on the flop and be happy if people want to get it in. The board is drawy so you might as well get it in while you're likely ahead. A lot of times you're up against an over-pair or a combo draw at the worst. It's pretty unlikely someone has 87 here. Even if they're loose enough to call you pre-flop with that, there are a lot of other hands they could have. If you get crushed by a goofy flopped straight or an over-set, you usually still played correctly in most cases.

By the way I think you can pretty safely modify his range to include 77, TT+ here. His flop raise doesn't always mean you're crushed, but rather he wants to get it in quickly as well with the drawy board for the same reasons you do.

Ok, if we modify his range to 66-44, 32s, 87s/o i have 38% Equity. I'm not giving him hands (over pair/two pair) that i crush.

Just trying to follow what's going on. Why 32s? Would he really have called the preflop raise with 32s?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Why 32s? Would he really have called the preflop raise with 32s?

Maybe. Look at it from the bb point of view. You see two limps, then a raise, and you have baby scs. One would assume at least one of the limpers would call the raise, so he's calling 30c for a $1+ pot. Implied odds are pretty good, I might call this with 23s if I think anyone in the pot can't let go of top pair/overpair. I might call 73s too, but again, only if I have good reason to believe that limpers will call and I'll get paid off if I hit 2pr+.

I don't like the flop call with a set on this board one bit. If we're up against a flopped straight, that's tough luck. Same as if it's 66. It's rare enough that a flopped set gets outflopped that I'm prepared to get it in on most, if not all, flops. There's tons of non-nut hands that think they're good on a flop like this... 33+, 23, 37, 67, A6, and then you have combo draws that people can play like a lunatic (people like me). Just raise your socks off at the flop and shout swears if he wins. I'm happy enough we win in this spot more often than we lose.

Okay, now I see it. I really need to keep an eye on opportunities like that. So he would be aiming to get either a flush, a flush draw, a straight, straight draw, two pairs, or perhaps trips?
How do you figure out the odds for that?

I don't know how to figure those odds. I guess it comes down to how loose a table is... there's no number that defines this in a way that can be interpreted as odds, you just have to use judgement based on previous action. I can call hands like 23s, 42s etc on the bb to a reasonable raise if there's a good chance the pot might get large. How large is a number I tend to pluck out of thin air. How fishy are the people in the pot? How big are their stacks? How big is ours? If I've seen the raiser fail to let go of JJ to massive aggression on a ten high flop, that's reason to believe the pot could get huge. Same again if I've seen one of the limpers limp/call KQ then stack off an a K-high flop. This is implied odds.

I suppose you could open up stove and mash in 23s against a random four-handed range, I've picked any pair/any broadway for the other three just to get a vague figure. It's taking stove a long time, but it's looking like 19% equity for our hand against this range; if we can give one of the others a range of just any pair we're down to around 15%, so let's work with that as a base figure for our equity... 15%, or one in seven (ish)... since we're paying 30c for what we hope/expect to be a $1 pot, we're paying twice as much as we should, which seems to mean to me that when we hit, we want the pot to get twice as big as it is on the flop for us to show a profit. This could be very flawed thinking, problem is our equity includes the times that 23 beats AK, 22 and QK on a 3JT5T board... do we really think we're taking that pot down? I think we're folding the flop. Taking this into account, we probably need the pot to get around 2.5x the flop size to make up the odds, maybe bigger. That's not that tough four handed against a load of fish who can't fold top pair or a draw, but it's a lot more difficult against decent players who bet/fold KQ on a 22Q flop.

Yeah I think I need to see some stacking off on the flop with top pair to make the call with 23s on the bb to a x4 raise. I rarely play 23s to a raise, but it's not always a fold.

That was some interesting ideas and you are right about it all depending on who is at the table.
What I meant though was what really are the odds of hitting one of those hands on the flop if you start with 23s.

Yeah I think I need to see some stacking off on the flop with top pair to make the call with 23s on the bb to a x4 raise. I rarely play 23s to a raise, but it's not always a fold.

This seems to sum it up pretty well. I'm going to try and look for opportunities to play like this and see how it goes.

I don't know exactly what the chances of hitting 2pr better on the flop, but I think it's around the same odds, maybe a little less likely, as hitting a set with pockets, so perhaps around one in ten flops. I think the call of 30 with a one in ten chance to hit a flop hard means we need to have the potential for a profit of $3, which means their stacks and tendancies must make this possible, otherwise we can never justify a call, we're not priced in. With three others in the hand, the pot size potential is huge, so in this hand I can see 23s or 73s as an outside possibility, it cannot be disragarded, because I'd consider the call, I wouldn't snap fold like I would if it were a heads up pot against a short stack, for example.
Of course, trash like 23s has the ability to be punished badly by better flushes or, worse, paired boards. When it loses to a better flush, you accept it immediately, you know it's a danger, but it's the times you get in with your juicy 2pr on the flop against the overpair AA, the whole bloody point of calling the raise, and cry as the turn J and river J crush your feeble little hand. It happens a lot more often than having a flush beat.
Point of all that nonsense is, while sometimes it might make sense to make a call with 23s, the high pot potential has to be there, because the variance is high and you can lose your stack and vow to hunt OngBonga down for even putting the idea into your head that 23s is playable. Be prepared for a rollercoaster, but against the right people, in the right spots, 23s can make you money. Just be careful!

And if the high pot potential comes from multiple players that is better or worse? Or is it just that the more players there are preflop the quicker the pot builds up and so you know that there is something in there already?

Are you serious? Did you really just say getting it in the middle with sets is one of ur biggest leaks?

The more players in the pot, the more likely that someone hits it, it's really that simple. If the flop is bingo Q22, we can expect someone to have a Q or better still KK/AA, but if we're heads up, then it's less likely. Four handed, it's three times more likely that someone hits top pair than HU. So really we want to look for small raise and then calls/probable calls from multiple fish, that's when hands like 23s have lethal potential for me.

So increasing the chances of someone hitting is a good thing here because we are pretty sure that we still beat them and they are going to think that they have the best hand when we are ahead of them?
This as opposed to holding a pocket pair when we want to narrow the field because the more players in the more chances that someone else has got a higher pair?

I think it's a good thing to have many people in the pot if they are loose fish, if we can be confident that 2pr, if we flop it, is likely good. I know it's usually good, but not always. It's good more often to flop aggression against he who plays top pair/overpair like the nuts. Again, I refer you to their tendancies. Pick your opponents well.
Pockets, we tend to want a lot of callers with small pairs that we rarely continue with, again so the chances of top pair being out there against our set when we hit it is improved. But larger pairs that win a lot of pots without improving, we want to get short handed really so we can be confident in our pair if we don't hit set. I hate four callers to my AA raise, but like it if I raise 22.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Are you serious? Did you really just say getting it in the middle with sets is one of ur biggest leaks?

Ok, i'm going to pretend that your not trolling and that you read both my posts. I was referring to two situations, which i posted examples of, and not to sets in general. I think it is obvious by the line that the villain takes in the OP that they are not representing big pocket pairs. I think in this position you are only seeing straights and sets. When i filter PT3 (over 200,000 hands @ 10NL) for a made set on the flop and facing a flop check raise i am losing a lot of money, more than any other leak i have found to date. Hence my conclusion "my biggest leak by a country mile is my aggression against flop raises holding sets or over pair".

I admit I'm surprised you're showing a loss with a flopped set facing a c/r. When I flop a set in position and proceed to lead out, I'm begging to be raised. I've got 33k hands in my database, I have just 11 examples where my middle set or bottom set is facing a c/r at the flop and I'm showing a profit of 8bb per hand (never folded). Maybe this is 2nl, perhaps at 10nl there are less people willing to get in with top pair. At my level, as far as I'm concerned a set on the flop is the nuts, it doesn't lose often enough for me to worry about. Perhaps it's not so simple at higher levels.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

perhaps at 10nl there are less people willing to get in with top pair. At my level, as far as I'm concerned a set on the flop is the nuts, it doesn't lose often enough for me to worry about. Perhaps it's not so simple at higher levels.

I dont think there is much difference. Its the texture of this board that is important. This hand is very different if there was an A or a K on the board. I don't see pocket over pairs taking this line. Over pairs (QQ+) are reraising preflop OOP and any over pair is betting out on this flop, they dont check raise. Two pair plays the same as an over pair imo.

Edit:

I reread your post. If you are not folding and they are c/r your mid/bottom set i am inferring that you are stacking off (100bb) each time and therefore must have lost approx 5 out of 11 based upon an average of +8bb, which illustrates my point if i am correct in assuming not all of the 11 had connected flops.

Originally Posted by Openside

When i filter PT3 (over 200,000 hands @ 10NL) for a made set on the flop and facing a flop check raise i am losing a lot of money, more than any other leak i have found to date. .

I'm curious to know what you are losing to?

Originally Posted by Tasha

I'm curious to know what you are losing to?

Made straights, flushes on mono boards and higher sets.

1470 sets if you play 100% of pocket pairs to the flop.

Assuming you get in as a 40/60 on average and you ALWAYS get c/r(another retarded assumption since you definitely get in as a huge favourite a lot of the time and are c-betting OOP a lot of the time.

That would mean you would have lost about 30BI over this sample. Now since u don't play 100% of pocket pairs to the flop and you aren't getting in as 40/60 on average when you are c/r.(you probably get in as a decent favourite on average) I don't understand how you can say this is a "huge" leak especially since you are getting decent PO. I mean just fucking lol.

Also why did u post 20k hands of stats but claim to have 200k hands?

I mean saying this is one of your biggest leaks is the most bullshit lie ever and Iunno why u'd expect any help if your just going to lie about your shit?

Originally Posted by Openside

I reread your post. If you are not folding and they are c/r your mid/bottom set i am inferring that you are stacking off (100bb) each time and therefore must have lost approx 5 out of 11 based upon an average of +8bb, which illustrates my point if i am correct in assuming not all of the 11 had connected flops.

I actually made a mistake in the filters. Where I selected "facing raise", I selected this pre flop, not flop. I have now adjusted the filters, and my results are even better.

11 hands from 33k that match the criteria (just facing a raise onflop in general, not necessarily a check/raise), average profit over these 11 hands... 11bb

Of these 11, I've lost 3.

33 had lost twice, both times to a raise on the flop from a draw that hit the turn, losing 50bb (that's a stack off) and 27bb

44 got folded on the turn for a loss of 5bb to a 542 diamonds flop, 6 spades turn. Replaying that hand, I actually think I was good, looks like overpair with diamond, but obviously I didn't think so at the time. I guess I just cut my losses since it was a small pot and waited for a better spot, he overbet the turn.

So the 8 wins won me (11x11) + 27 + 50 + 5... 204bb
3 beats cost me 27 + 50 + 5... 83bb
Net profit 121bb, over 11 hands that's the 11bb per hand.

For sure the average loss is heavier than the average win, but the amount of times it wins more than makes up for these losses. I've only stacked off once in three when I'm beat, so clearly board texture and player tendancies are playing a large part in keeping my losses down. I've folded it once in three, the one time I saw to showdown without stacking off I was up against tp/flush draw on flop, we had a raising war which I ended with a flat call, he makes flush on turn, and then he checks his flush down waiting for me to bet, which of course I don't. The time I stacked off I didn't credit him with the nuts since he raised the flop. He has straight on turn and we stack off here.

Either you're just very unlucky, you've made a mistake with the filters, or you're playing your sets badly. Are you folding to a raise on the flop with a set? That might explain why you're not making money with them.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I don't understand how you can say this is a "huge" leak especially since you are getting decent PO. I mean just fucking lol.

Comprehension fail in 5....4....3.... oh wait you BEAT ME TO IT! Read the post! You continually fail to acknowledge the texture of the board, which is the whole point of my post! I have seen 15 flops which are connected or monochromatic, which have given me middle or bottom set. Of these i have lost 13 times to hands made on the flop, for a total loss of $98. This is alot for a break-even player!

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Also why did u post 20k hands of stats but claim to have 200k hands?

Good work Inspector Gadget. You are so quick to wave your epeen that you couldnt stop for a second and realise that those stats were just for last month, huh?
You know, if you were half as smart as you think you are you would have looked up how many hands i have played, at a site such as PTR, before erroneously concluding i was lieing.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I mean saying this is one of your biggest leaks is the most bullshit lie ever and Iunno why u'd expect any help if your just going to lie about your shit?

Help? You have done nothing but troll and wave your epeen!

If we assume a winrate of 2BB/100 we are winning $400 over 200k hands. A single leak that costs us a quarter of our win rate is f@$king huge!

Originally Posted by OngBonga

11 hands from 33k that match the criteria (just facing a raise onflop in general, not necessarily a check/raise), average profit over these 11 hands... 11bb

Well they dont fit the criteria then, do they? Again, i think i am talking to a brick wall. I think your sample size is too small but i am specifically and constantly referring to a made set that is c/r, facing a board of this texture. I am never folding sets. Of the 15 hands, i shoved over the top of his c/r every time.

Sorry for my tone, you have at least been constructive. Imna give up posting.

Try not to get too defensive against people who are strong with their opinions, I try to translate it into something useful. I think you get terms like "fucking lol" because you're assuming a loss is a leak... that's not true. A leak is when you put money into the pot when you expect to run at a loss, such as flush draws a pot price.... if you're putting money in +ev and still running at a loss, then you're unlucky, it's a statistical blip, not a leak.

Icanstreetbet can be a twat at times, hey I can too, but he does actually know his stuff enough for his opinion to be listened to at the very least.

I think you're right, my sample is too small to be truly constructive.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think you get terms like "fucking lol" because you're assuming a loss is a leak... that's not true. A leak is when you put money into the pot when you expect to run at a loss, such as flush draws a pot price.... if you're putting money in +ev and still running at a loss, then you're unlucky, it's a statistical blip, not a leak.

Icanstreetbet can be a twat at times, hey I can too, but he does actually know his stuff enough for his opinion to be listened to at the very least.

Imna ignore Icanstreetbet's opinion in this post. All he has done is demonstrate his inability to think clearly when he sees something he disagrees with.

I understand what a leak is. It is possible for a play to be +EV in general but still contain a leak, a play in a specific scenario which is -EV.

can we lock this thread please, im so bummed it got to 30 posts and cuaght fire cause i keep clicking the link thinking maybe something cool and interesting is going on but no its not....

Yeah ok if action (a) is +ev and action (b) is even more +ev, then action (a) is a leak, despite being +ev. Making a -ev play is always a leak though, because we can fold.

Philly, stop taking the link... don't do it... nothing to see here... I bet you did it, I bet you're reading this.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Yeah ok if action (a) is +ev and action (b) is even more +ev, then action (a) is a leak, despite being +ev.

This is not what i meant. The following is simply to illustrate the point and is not necessarily reflective of actual probabilities.

Lets use shoving pocket aces on the flop as an example. Over every event this could be +EV (A). Of these hands however there can be a sub-set where we are shoving OOP into a multi-way, wet flop for example (C). Lets assume this is -EV. Based upon this premise it is therefore flawed logic when facing a multiway wet flop OOP to shove AA based upon the conclusion that shoving AA is +EV. If we removed that subset from our shoving range then our overall +EV would increase (B).

Therefore what i was meaning was

+EV(A) = +EV(B) - EV(C)

I know my sample size is small but my set EV would increase if i stopped shoving into multiway pots with connected or mono flops that are c/r.

Maybe you should just quit poker. This way u'll run @ max eV no?

Iunno why a thread that complains about getting AI w/ sets hasn't been locked yet either philly O:

I rebutted each point you made earlier and this is your response? "Fucking lol"!

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Maybe you should just quit poker. This way u'll run @ max eV no?

No, retard. That would be 0 EV. Fuck, you tilt me so hard and i let you. Maybe you should fuck off out of the BC forums. I thought BC was for learning and teaching, not for being a reusable douche?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Iunno why a thread that complains about getting AI w/ sets hasn't been locked yet either philly O:

lol bc you would have to find somebody else to troll incessantly? The post has nothing to do with shoving sets in general and you know it. Take a look at hands posted by people better than you, you might learn something.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...nl-183427.html


I am done feeding you

Shoving in this situation, even with the crazy wet board, is still going to be +EV unless you're shoving against a total nit who never puts a penny in the pot without having a nut-type hand.

Look at the math: you're risking $10 in your shove to win $13.90 (if he calls), which means you need 41.8% equity for the AI. Even his tightest calling range possible gives you 37.5%. Add in a few overpairs or draws, and factor in fold equity, and you're easily +EV.

Board: 4s 5s 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.539% 36.21% 01.33% 13623 499.00 { 5c5h }
Hand 1: 62.461% 61.14% 01.33% 22999 499.00 { 66, 44, 87s, 32s, 87o, 32o }

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

Shoving in this situation, even with the crazy wet board, is still going to be +EV unless you're shoving against a total nit who never puts a penny in the pot without having a nut-type hand.

Look at the math: you're risking $10 in your shove to win $13.90 (if he calls), which means you need 41.8% equity for the AI. Even his tightest calling range possible gives you 37.5%. Add in a few overpairs or draws, and factor in fold equity, and you're easily +EV.

at the risk of dragging this thread out more

night gizmo if you are the one shoving you need to have >50% equity for the EV of shoving to be > the EV of checking, the math you are using is for calling an all in or for calling a river bet.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

night gizmo if you are the one shoving you need to have >50% equity for the EV of shoving to be > the EV of checking, the math you are using is for calling an all in or for calling a river bet.

Umm... oops! Yes, you are absolutely right.

Fucking lol at this thread

lol @ this thread jesus

post stats for your 200k hand sample

learned so much from that hand you posted, wow you have really opened my eyes. I am awe struck and now feel like I can finally break out of the 5nl level and crush everything up to 10nl cause I learned how to make the most standard fold of life. Please enlighten me, how did you ever find such an amazing hand?