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 Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Calling is great because we know it's super profitable, plus we get to play the river in position with one bet left in the hand in a big pot where it's not very easy to make mistakes.
OK, so I called the min-raise on the turn. River: the pot is $4.90, card is the Ks, villain bets all-in with his remaining $1.34.
I only need to be good here 17.7% of the time, but with this crazy of a board against someone who has not been very aggressive in previous hands (although over an admittedly small sample), I think he shows up with a straight or flush almost always.
Is that playing too scared and this should be a call expecting to snap off a bluff, two-pair, or worse set at least 17.7% of the time? Or was the turn call strictly made to try for the boat or c/c on the river, and since those both failed we now fold?
Taking a quick stab at this, assuming he shoves with any two pair or better plus a few bluffs:
Hands I beat:
55 - 3
77 - 3
78 - 3
89 - 3
missed draws bluff (est): 3
TOTAL: 15
Hands that beat me:
66 - 6
99 - 3
56 - 12
67 - 12
TJ - 16
spade draws (AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A7, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QJ): 10
TOTAL: 59
Giving me 20.2% equity, making this a call. But another draw was completed on the river, so I don't know if we should count all of the hands I beat -- he may check back some of them. If we remove 3 hands from the hands I beat, I no longer have the odds to call.
Anyway, let me know what you think.
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