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Set chasing a boat with implied pot odds?
Hey folks
So villain (Button) is 52/4 over 121. He is relatively passive post flop but will agro when he hits. I have played three hands against him prior, OOP. He ran me over on each occasion with a turn raise so he knows he can push me and i will fold.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($2.93)
MP2 ($5)
CO ($5.12)
Button ($5.40)
SB ($5.08)
Hero (BB) ($6.49)
UTG ($3.52)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J , J
1 fold, MP1 bets $0.15, 2 folds, Button calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, Hero calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.60) 10 , Q , 9 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.26, Button calls $0.26, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.26
Turn: ($1.38) J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets $1.38, Hero calls $1.38, 1 fold
River: ($4.14) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3.61 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $4.14 | Rake: $0.27
This is an implied pot odds question so lets assume the villain has a flush or a straight, that neither MP1 or villain hold one of my outs (unlikely, but entertain me), and that MP1 folds the turn:
I have approx. 19% equity (9/46) and i need 33% (1.38/4.14) to call the turn. I am certain he is shoving the river no matter what hits so i need 18% to call (1.38/[4.14+3.61]).
In hindsight i think my call was 0 EV and -EV if MP1 has a hand. If MP1 has a hand he is shoving here and villain is likely to shove also which leaves me needing 25% equity to call (3.61/14.15) so therefore i fold the turn.
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