Sanity check -20NL 6max

Villain is running at 24/18, 2.25 AF over 138 hands. Cbets 73% (8/11).

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($28.55)
UTG+1 ($3.70)
CO ($19.13)
BTN ($12.12)
Hero ($20)
BB ($20)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 6 players) Hero is SB
UTG raises to $0.60, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($2, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.40, BTN folds, $1.4 to Hero ($19.4)???

I'll say what I would do, please flame me if it is dumb.

First at 6-max I would have considered 3-betting big preflop. Good spot for a squeeze. I don't think a UTG raise at 6-max represents the same strength it does at FR.

On the flop, raise to $4.5. If he shoves over, he probably has you beat, likely with a set, unless he is bluffing. You would have to call $15 to win a total pot of $41, which is 36.6% pot odds, so you don't really have the odds to call with your flush/overset draw since he also has a chance of filling at the same time you do your flush. (I stoved it and your equity if he has a set of 3's is 30.25%) He would have to be bluffing about 15% of the time to make this a call. Of course your equity improves if you think he may shove with two pairs (but he would have to raise A2 or A3 UTG?) or shove with AK, AQ, AJ.

If you just call on the flop, then basically you give him a free card facing what might only be a continuation bet. I don't think calling is right.

I'd raise and hope he shoved back over so I could call. I'd just raise as big as I think he would call based on reads and stuff; i'd probably just click the bet pot button.

Because even if he only has sets and AQ+ we're in pretty good shape and in reality he is probably far wider. Not that i'm an expert or anything -

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: 3c 2c Ah
Hand 0: 64.394% 54.75% 09.65% 11382 2005.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 35.606% 25.96% 09.65% 5397 2005.50 { AA, 33-22, AQs+, AQo+ }

i 3bet this pre to like 2$ or a bit more pretty much 100% of the time. im also pretty much always raising flop to 4.2$ as played. and im never ever ever ever folding

It's true that even if only AK is in his shoving range along with all the possible sets, then you have a clear call to his shove. But personally if I was opp I don't think I would stack off with AK in this spot unless I thought my opponent was a donk. I'd probably call the raise and re-evaluate on the turn.

raise pf.
as played get it in on this flop.

Call flop

Call flop

Why would you just call the flop here?

well theres several reasons but ill address a few cuz u've talked about them already.

1st: if he 3bets us, it kinda sucks. i didnt verify the math, but when he shoves we're either behind or flipping (as you pointed out i believe), but depending on our raise size and his 3b size itll likely be impossible to fold, so we'll flip for what is probably a very marginally +ev situation.

Now just calling with TPTK an the nut flush draw is clearly a really good +++++ev spot (Do.U.C.Y.?). So given the two, id go for calling. Basically there are alot of reasons to call and not very many to raise.

If its ambiguous what reasons there are to call in and of itself, ask away.

Well I see the argument of getting in the tough spot where he 3-bets, but nothing says at this stage that he will. Way I see it, it is just raising a c-bet with a very good, but vulnerable hand. Shouldn't we make him pay for a card?

But I guess the other way to see it is that if we raise the flop, then we want him to call with worse, and there are not many hands that do that. Most likely AK does, and AK is worse than our hand since his AK does not have the nut flush draw.

So what is likely to happen if we call? If the turn is a non club I think since we did not show strength on the flop he will barrel again with AJ+,99+,22-33. We have a lot of equity against that range, even if the turn is a J or Q, so in the name of value, we have to call again or raise, I suppose. If the turn is a club, he will have reasons to bet smaller or even not at all, then we could call this or check behind (basically slow play), or raise if the board is dangerous because it increased the likelihood of having given him two pairs or a set, which could fill on the river and bust our flush.

Yes I suppose long run you may get more value from the call play, but it is scarier and harder to play because opp's range is much less defined.

Was that along the lines of your thinking or did I just mess this up?

Reads? Not just on UTG player too.
Raise flop. Preflop I 3bet given stack sizes and the assumption BU is a fish but a lot of times I just flat here if both players were regs and I think that's probably a mistake.

Don't remember any reads. The hand was from a couple of days ago I'm afraid. BTN was running 80/50 over 26 hands.

I could be results orientated but I thought the flop was a definite raise but I can't really describe my thought process at the time. I'd be getting value from Ax hands and perhaps some pocket pairs as well.

Anyway, the full hand, it seems like I missed out on a lot of value.

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($28.55)
UTG+1 ($3.70)
CO ($19.13)
BTN ($12.12)
Hero ($20)
BB ($20)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 6 players) Hero is SB
UTG raises to $0.60, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($2, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.40, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.80, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80

River: ($10.40, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6

Final Pot: $21.28
Hero shows

UTG shows


Hero wins $21.28 (net +$10.48)

BTN lost $0.60
UTG lost $10.80

well kminds alot better than me and disagrees so ill just spill.

hes a 24/18 so hes got a lot of shit in his range and we've got a strong hand. TPTK + nfd is either flipping or ahead of everything he can have, so we should be thinking of it like a nut hand.

Ok, so A23tt board, what can he have here. Readless and just going by how i see ppl with these stats play, i think hed do the following

um, for clarity im assuming his opening range is {77+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A9 o+,KTo+,QTo+}. could be wrong, we dont have reads..w/e.

My initial plan when seeing this was to call the flop, and bet/raise most turns (cant think of one i wouldnt just yet)

anyways, hes doing what with what now

1) betting and raising {AA, 22, 33, 54, AK, AQ} 37combos

2) betting and calling a reasonable raise {A9-AJo, A8s-AJs, QcTc+ JcTc, KcTc+, 6c5c, 7c6c, 8c7c, 9c8c, tc9c} 35 combos

3) betting and folding to a raise {77-KK, QTo+, KTo+, QTs+, JTs, KTs+ (not clubs)} 96 combos

4) probably just c/fing (T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s not clubs} 15 comobs

Soooo....

1) gets it in regardless of what we do really (except maybe ak, aq, but fuck them)

4) isnt here likely.

So its down to deciding how best to pwn 2) and 3) (131 combos)

up till now ive only considered how he reacts when he bets and then we raise. so now i have to consider how he reacts when he bets and we call

Theres a few situations. its a little difficult to address how he plays his entire range based on each individual card that falls, so im gonna separate it into two groups and just assume he plays some part different depending on the card. Group A (flush cards fall), and Group B (non flush cards fall)

remember im ignoring the previous ranges 1) and 4) for simplicity and seperating the remaining ranges 2) and 3) into a new set of ranges

5A) bets again, and gets it in {QcTc+, JcTc, 6c5c, 7c6c, 8c7c, 9c8c, tc9c, QcQx, QcTo+} 17 combos

6A) bets again and calls{pretty much nothing imo, maybe he gaybets Ax but hes likely folding to a raise}

7A) bets again and folds {50% of 77-KK, QTo+, KTo+, QTs+, JTs, KTs+ where none have clubs} 89/2,

8A) check calls {A9-AJ, A8s-AJs} 27

9A) check folds {50% of 77-KK, QTo+, KTo+, QTs+, JTs, KTs+ where none have clubs} 89/2

So cliffnotes, on flush boards, we get a full 3 bets from 17 combos, 2 bets 27 combos 1.5bets from 89 combos. I use the term "bets" to mean bet/raise's. The 2bets are worth roughly 3 single bets, and 3bets are worth roughly 3 2 bets (river/turn raises are very large relative to flop bets ya?)

On non flush boards

5b) bets again and gets it in ..{20% of flush draws that were in 5a}
3.4com
6b) bets again, calls {40% of flush draws in 5a, A9-AJ, A8s-AJs}
33.8
7b) bets again, folds {same as 7a}
89/2
8b) check calls {the other 40% of flush draws that were in 5a}
6.8
9b) check folds {same as 9a)
89/2

ok so on non flush boards we get 3bets 3.4 combos, 3 from 33.8, 1.5 from 89, 2 from 6.8

OOOOKKKK last thing, turns where we raised instaed of calling and he called

2) betting and calling a reasonable raise {A9-AJo, A8s-AJs, QcTc+ JcTc, 6c5c, 7c6c, 8c7c, 9c8c, tc9c}

IIA) gets it in (all flushes) 8 combos
IIIA) c/f (Ax) 27 combos

he likely isnt calling our raise and leading out with Ax and he folds the weaker ones to a turn bet.

So when we raise and the turn flushes, 1 bet 89 combos of air, 2 bets from 27 combos, 3 bets from 8

Ok

IIB) gets it in {50% flush draws, 20% Ax} 9.4
IIIB) c/f {50% flush draws, 80% Ax} 25.6

So we raise here, 1bet from 89 combos (air), 3 from 9.4, 2 from 25.6

I ignored the case where we check the turn, just cuz i dont think we gain anything when we raise flop, check turn, and bet river cuz of lost value from flush draws and no air to get value from

So...In summary


we end up getting

29.76 3rd bets, 10.84 2nd bets, and 89 1.5 bets when we call the flop

as opposed to

9.12 3bets, 25.88 2bets, 89 single bets when we raise flop.

So if the assumptions prior were correct, then calling is better since we get more value out of his Ax hands (and thus get a 3rd bet more often). To recap, the assumptions where that he followed a strict 18% range that is listed above, that he would continue to bet with air half the time, that he'd fold his weaker aces after calling a flop raise, that he'd continue to bet about 60% of his flush draws if we called, and c/c the rest, that our equity vs anything other than his nut range is static regardless of whether we call or raise, and i think that might be it.

ANYWAYS, kmind disagrees somewhere, and its likely cuz he disagrees with one or many of these assumptions. Id like to hear more.

p.s.: no one actually fucking does this for realsies. But they do do the process. They do this exact thing but instead of finding each range exactly, they estimate them. You get a feel for how much of villains range is pairs/air/etc, and also have a feel for how he plays these hands depending on what you do. Its not important that you actually write down every single little combo, but it is important that you're looking at this from a "ok, if i do x, how does he play each part of his range...how can i maximize value here...". What i posted above is the long exaggerated more concrete way that its done on paper that math geeks like me do out of curiosity. HOWEVER EVERY GOOD POKER PLAYER IS DOING THE METHOD. I've seen alot of skimping on this and just picked this thread to do it in.

so anywho epic cliffnotes

I think we get more value out of the Ax's in his range by calling the flop and raising the turn then by flat out raising the flop. Since i think he has more of those in his range than potential flush draws (which are the only other thing outside his nut range that pay us off) i like check calling. True when we hit a flush they slow the fuck down, but thats only 20% of the time or so.

Why do you want to raise kmind?

(this is the type of response i usually give obv, but a uber simplified version of the above is what im thinking)

wtf

I c/call against most players.

if he's a super aggro donk who felts bad aces by all means, get it in on the flop.

turn/river can get interesting depending on what cards fall I guess, looks like jkds actually showed why it would be profitable to call flop, I just click and pray.

Originally Posted by JKDS

um, for clarity im assuming his opening range is {77+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A9 o+,KTo+,QTo+}. could be wrong, we dont have reads..w/e.

Your range is too wide for an UTG raiser. He's 24/18, right? I run like 35/25 at 6max and my UTG range isn't quite this wide. Mine is:

55+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KQo

So his is probably something like:

77+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+

or

22+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+

It really comes down to preference. The point is that there are less weak aces and less air in his range. Whether or not he can have 33-22 is a good question. 54s almost certainly is not in his range, so he doesn't have the nuts here.

Now, for him to bet 3-way on this board he has to have either air or a low pocket pair that he doesn't mind folding to a raise, an A or set that he is trying to get value from, or a flush draw that he is semi-bluffing. I really don't think he's betting KK-JJ on this flop.

His air is going to shut down after we call the flop. The only exception is when his low pocket pairs (44-99) turn or river a set. This is obviously less than ideal.

His AJ-AT might bet the turn, but if he knows we are a solid player they are more likely to check behind and look to catch a bluff or value bet on the river.

His AK/AQ will probably bet the turn again for value. AQ might check behind the river.

I really wish he hadn't posted the results so soon. My response was going to be that we should raise and get it in on the flop because we're freerolling to the flush a ton, and that's exactly what happened.

My line is to check/raise the flop to $4. After he calls there is $10 in the pot, making it super-easy to bet $5 on the turn and then $10.40 on the river. He is always going to call our flop raise with his AX hands (remember, they're mostly AJ+), and then our bets from here on out are so small that we can potentially get him to call us down with worse aces.

It's important to remember that someone who is 24/18 isn't raising 18% of hands from everywhere. Anyone with reasonable stats like that is raising a position-adjusted range of hands.


Back to the hand, as played preflop and on the flop, let's at least raise the turn! If we check raise to $7 on the turn it makes for an easy river shove. What do we really expect to be losing to after Villain has made 2 bets of just over half pot?

JKDS - To be fair, I said "call" before I editted my post. Your response is huge and could definitely be correct as I'm not great with combos/math. The reasons I initially said call was because he definitely cbets a ton and can have shit in his range. The reason I switched was because in my experience, people c/x the turn too much and I felt like even with like AJ (maybe AQ) he'd just check/x the turn. I wanted to get in more money and be able to felt it the times he gets it in with AQ or AK when we are freerolling.

The thing we need to know is what he opens UTG, how often he cbets in multiway pots, how often he double barrels, etc. If we knew more about these things then the decision seems so much easier.

And I'm not a lot better than you.

thx alot u guys. i did make his range a bit too wide and the whole decision rests pretty much on how many Ax's he can possibly have ( and the assumption that he folds them more often when we raise as opposed to call). Good responses itt.

This thread has a lot of eLove in it. Let's keep it up!