River line-check with boat

Villain is 53/0 over 43. They got their stack by calling down, multiway, to a river shove oop with 8 8 on a K 3 J 2 K board.

Their range PF is enormous; they are getting at least 4:1 for their money and they have proven to be a station. I would say any suited, 22+, JTo+. Prob. wider.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.57)
UTG ($14.12)
Hero (UTG+1) ($13)
MP1 ($5)
MP2 ($5.19)
MP3 ($6.11)
CO ($2.10)
Button ($10.86)
SB ($3.14)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, MP1 calls $0.20, 2 folds, CO calls $0.20, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

3Bet? By not i got myself into a bad situation with so many in the pot.

Flop: ($1.25) K, 5, 5 (6 players)
SB bets $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Button calls $0.85, 1 fold

Villain's calling range 22+, KT, KJ, KQ, AK, any suited 5.

Turn: ($3) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3

Villain calls with flop range.

River: ($9) Q (2 players)
Hero???


Villain isn't folding.
Check/call: Pro: may check in behind or bet less than a shove with the nuts. Con: may check in behind with a weaker hand she would have called with.

Bet: Pro: villain just calls with the nuts. Con: villain just calls with a weaker hand that she would have called a shove with.

Shove: Pro: getting it all in with 75% equity. Con: She only calls with hands than beat us.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.316% 14.04% 12.28% 16 14.00 { 22+, AKs, A5s, KTs+, K5s, QJs, Q5s, J5s, T5s, 95s, 85s-84s, 75s, 65s, 54s, AKo, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 73.684% 61.40% 12.28% 70 14.00 { AsKc }

This is a mandatory shove imo. If he has the last 5 or QQ or KK, that is a genuine cooler, those hands are a very small part of his range. This guy has not raised, his range is wide, and he is never folding any pp or Q here. This is a very +EV spot.

Is it normal at FR to flat AK to an utg open?

Vs a 53/0 station I'm going for 3 streets of value all day, every day. Bad players can cooler us here but never enough for me to slow down, like ever.

Shove: Pro: getting it all in with 75% equity. Con: She only calls with hands than beat us.

This makes no sense.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

This makes no sense.

Sorry i will clarify. Pro: we have >50% equity (75%) to valuye bet shove. Con: We are only getting called by the nuts. A weaker hand that would have called a bet folds to the shove. We are missing value.

yea openside i should have said that you need >50% against their CONTINUING range aka the hands they call your bet with

Originally Posted by couriermike

Is it normal at FR to flat AK to an utg open?

I typically don't, but like everything its situational. UTG is a 34/23 over 659 who 100% folds to 3bet. Flatting looks bad bc so many ppl flatted behind me, which priced in the villain. But hey, hindsight is 20/20. UTG didn't come along so i didnt elaborate.

Originally Posted by Openside

Shove: Pro: getting it all in with 75% equity. Con: She only calls with hands than beat us.

"Villain is 53/0 over 43. They got their stack by calling down, multiway, to a river shove oop with 8 8 on a K 3 J 2 K board."


That ring any bells for ya? "She" could easily have Kx here, but the added possibility of her calling your AI here with lower PPs makes your shove hugely +EV. Shipit.

Originally Posted by deucesomething

more like "she'll" snap you off with any Kx & other retardo PPs and such


"Villain is 53/0 over 43. They got their stack by calling down, multiway, to a river shove oop with 8 8 on a K 3 J 2 K board."


That ring any bells for ya?

rofl

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

rofl

yeah I missed hero having boated on the turn @ first glance. edited post

Originally Posted by deucesomething

yeah I missed hero having boated on the turn @ first glance. edited post

i was rofling with you not at you, the op had a read that proved that getting it in was most EV+ and you pointed it out