Reraise with AA.

Alright, suppose you have AA and it's raised infront of you (Though it doesn't matter, let's say 4bb).

Your plan is to reraise. Both you and op have equal 100 bb stacks.

To what minimum value should you reraise so that you can commit yourself to any flop (Simply push reguardless of action or texture of the board) so that it is +EV?

Make the following assumptions:

You will be commited to any flop reguardless of op, action or board.
Op is not commited to calling.
Op will call preflop reraise.
Hand is HU.
If op outflops you, you will not catch up. (You wont hit any outs)
Hand basically ends on the flop as you will push.


-'rilla

that kind of question depends on a huge list of variables. is this a person who overplays big cards/smaller pairs? does he understand that limp/raises or raises from the blinds indictate big hands?

im not sure you can find any generic amount to raise that would commit him on any flop if you both had 100bb stacks.


if you raised 4x his bet it might be possible, but i think hes going to be wary on any flop and only call if he has you beat - especially considering that he does have position on you.

Originally Posted by journey075

that kind of question depends on a huge list of variables. is this a person who overplays big cards/smaller pairs? does he understand that limp/raises or raises from the blinds indictate big hands?

im not sure you can find any generic amount to raise that would commit him on any flop if you both had 100bb stacks.


if you raised 4x his bet it might be possible, but i think hes going to be wary on any flop and only call if he has you beat - especially considering that he does have position on you.

I understand that very well. I'm trying to strip the answer down to the absolutes and then build upon it.

It's basically this, how often does AA get outflopped by any random hand? If it's at most 1 in 8, then you'd need to get 1/8th of your 100 bb stack in preflop to break even. Right? So, I guess you'd need to get 12.5bb in preflop.

So basically getting in 12.5% of the smaller stack almost ensures that aces will be +EV.

Right?

-'rilla

do you think strategies like that can be applied at your stakes?

Originally Posted by journey075

do you think strategies like that can be applied at your stakes?

Yes, becuase it's not going to end here. After I get the raw number, I can factor in my op+table+flop texture+action at the tables.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

It's basically this, how often does AA get outflopped by any random hand? If it's at most 1 in 8, then you'd need to get 1/8th of your 100 bb stack in preflop to break even. Right? So, I guess you'd need to get 12.5bb in preflop.

So basically getting in 12.5% of the smaller stack almost ensures that aces will be +EV.

You're forgetting several important factors:

How often is he calling with a worse hand?
How often is be re-raising the flop with a worse hand he won't call with?

The worse he plays post-flop, the more money you can have behind.

In terms of no-brainer approaches, if you get 1/3 of the smaller stack in pre-flop you set-up a pot bet on the flop. Certainly a wildly profitable spot. If I'm playing for stacks here I really want no more than 2x pot behind on the flop, but I'm not studly enough to back that up with numbers.

I'm just trying to avoid specifics right now. I want a no-brainers approach. 1/3rd of the stack seems a bit too much, though. Surely even 1/5th would be profitable.

-'rilla

slightly related story:

I have a friend who was in a big 10-20 NL game at the Bellagio, with no max buy-in. A person raised, and another guy pushed all-in for $7k. He looked down at 2 aces, and had about $5k in chips, and told me he almost considered folding for a minute.

Most people would say "omg call", and he did call and won a huge pot, but he also said the game was so good he could have won his money without risking a 4:1 coinflip for $5000.

I can imagine the pain of being 2 outted for $5000 is pretty substantial

Where's Zenbitz or some other math machine to clear my thoughts when you need them?

-'rilla

Originally Posted by jmontis

slightly related story:

he also said the game was so good he could have won his money without risking a 4:1 coinflip for $5000.

What currency do you use, those must be some crazy coins.

Well this is simpler then you might think, for what you are asking.

First of all you need to know the chance of him flopping better then you (2 pair or better) which I believe is 3.8%? Then find out the chance that you also flop 2pair or better and subtract it. This will be the % of time he has you beat.

For simplicity, if we just say every time he flops 2pair or better you are beaten (which isn't the case) then you will be beaten about 4% of the time (if my memory serves me correctly)

So 1 out of 25 times you are beaten on the flop. So you just need to get in 5BB of his stack to make it EV+, which is significantly less then you might think. I'm sure some of my numbers are wrong, but the logic is there.

Originally Posted by doggz

Well this is simpler then you might think, for what you are asking.

First of all you need to know the chance of him flopping better then you (2 pair or better) which I believe is 3.8%? Then find out the chance that you also flop 2pair or better and subtract it. This will be the % of time he has you beat.

For simplicity, if we just say every time he flops 2pair or better you are beaten (which isn't the case) then you will be beaten about 4% of the time (if my memory serves me correctly)

So 1 out of 25 times you are beaten on the flop. So you just need to get in 5BB of his stack to make it EV+, which is significantly less then you might think. I'm sure some of my numbers are wrong, but the logic is there.

And this is against any non-pair hand? Sexy.

The reason I'm trying to figure out the exact number is becuase I was always using 1/5th. If I get 1/5th of my stack in preflop with AA/KK, I'm commited to just about anything (except for A flops with KK). Just trying to figure out if I've been walking in the dark or accurate on my stance.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by doggz

Well this is simpler then you might think, for what you are asking.

First of all you need to know the chance of him flopping better then you (2 pair or better) which I believe is 3.8%? Then find out the chance that you also flop 2pair or better and subtract it. This will be the % of time he has you beat.

For simplicity, if we just say every time he flops 2pair or better you are beaten (which isn't the case) then you will be beaten about 4% of the time (if my memory serves me correctly)

So 1 out of 25 times you are beaten on the flop. So you just need to get in 5BB of his stack to make it EV+, which is significantly less then you might think. I'm sure some of my numbers are wrong, but the logic is there.

And this is against any non-pair hand? Sexy.

The reason I'm trying to figure out the exact number is becuase I was always using 1/5th. If I get 1/5th of my stack in preflop with AA/KK, I'm commited to just about anything (except for A flops with KK). Just trying to figure out if I've been walking in the dark or accurate on my stance.

-'rilla

I don't remember the exact chance of flopping 2 pair or better, but I think it is 3.8. I do know it isn't very high. And of course almost any hand not 2pair or better isn't beating you obviously. About the only hand he could flop that isn't 2pair or better and still beating you is top pair with the straightflush draw. Someone can come refine the exact odds but that's a lot of work when the answer is rather clear.

Originally Posted by doggz

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by doggz

Well this is simpler then you might think, for what you are asking.

First of all you need to know the chance of him flopping better then you (2 pair or better) which I believe is 3.8%? Then find out the chance that you also flop 2pair or better and subtract it. This will be the % of time he has you beat.

For simplicity, if we just say every time he flops 2pair or better you are beaten (which isn't the case) then you will be beaten about 4% of the time (if my memory serves me correctly)

So 1 out of 25 times you are beaten on the flop. So you just need to get in 5BB of his stack to make it EV+, which is significantly less then you might think. I'm sure some of my numbers are wrong, but the logic is there.

And this is against any non-pair hand? Sexy.

The reason I'm trying to figure out the exact number is becuase I was always using 1/5th. If I get 1/5th of my stack in preflop with AA/KK, I'm commited to just about anything (except for A flops with KK). Just trying to figure out if I've been walking in the dark or accurate on my stance.

-'rilla

I don't remember the exact chance of flopping 2 pair or better, but I think it is 3.8. I do know it isn't very high. And of course almost any hand not 2pair or better isn't beating you obviously. About the only hand he could flop that isn't 2pair or better and still beating you is top pair with the straightflush draw. Someone can come refine the exact odds but that's a lot of work when the answer is rather clear.

Actually, open-ended straight flush draw, or a flush draw + open-ended straight draw also has two aces beat.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by doggz

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by doggz

Well this is simpler then you might think, for what you are asking.

First of all you need to know the chance of him flopping better then you (2 pair or better) which I believe is 3.8%? Then find out the chance that you also flop 2pair or better and subtract it. This will be the % of time he has you beat.

For simplicity, if we just say every time he flops 2pair or better you are beaten (which isn't the case) then you will be beaten about 4% of the time (if my memory serves me correctly)

So 1 out of 25 times you are beaten on the flop. So you just need to get in 5BB of his stack to make it EV+, which is significantly less then you might think. I'm sure some of my numbers are wrong, but the logic is there.

And this is against any non-pair hand? Sexy.

The reason I'm trying to figure out the exact number is becuase I was always using 1/5th. If I get 1/5th of my stack in preflop with AA/KK, I'm commited to just about anything (except for A flops with KK). Just trying to figure out if I've been walking in the dark or accurate on my stance.

-'rilla

I don't remember the exact chance of flopping 2 pair or better, but I think it is 3.8. I do know it isn't very high. And of course almost any hand not 2pair or better isn't beating you obviously. About the only hand he could flop that isn't 2pair or better and still beating you is top pair with the straightflush draw. Someone can come refine the exact odds but that's a lot of work when the answer is rather clear.

Actually, open-ended straight flush draw, or a flush draw + open-ended straight draw also has two aces beat.

True, just barely if he has the Ace of the suit.

i think that looking at just the flop, a lower pocket pair is the worst case scenario. they're going to outflop you 12% of the time. so, after the flop, you're 88% at worst to be ahead.

so, i'm pretty sure you barely need to get anything into the pot preflop to make the flop call worth it. you're ahead 88% of the time. Say he raised to 4BB, you reraised to 12, and he calls. on the flop, you would be betting 88BB to try to win 112BB. not sure the right way to say it, but this % is 78%, and you're 88% to win. if you reraised to 8BB, then you'd be betting 92BB on the flop to try to win 108, which gives you 85%, which is still below 88%. so basically, if you minraise preflop, you are pot committed. is my thinking right?

Originally Posted by Fnord

How often is he calling with a worse hand?

everytime he is calling with a worse hand, AA is the strongest hand preflop.

Originally Posted by Element187

Originally Posted by Fnord

How often is he calling with a worse hand?

everytime he is calling with a worse hand, AA is the strongest hand preflop.

I am pretty sure he ment post flop. IE how often he will call the all-in bet post flop, with a worse hand.

Meaning how many time would he need to play along with some PP with the assumption that you have AA then call the all in when he hits his trips on a rag board...

I don't mean to re-direct this thread, but is this the usual play for AA and KK: Raise 1/5 your stack and push on any flop (except Ace flop with KK).

I play NL$25, and I've been re-raising 'a callable amount' and then betting the pot to try to eliminate draws, but keep in TPTK.

I think this thread is ONLY if someone has raised ahead of you. If you're the first raiser, you just go 4xbb (or whatever amount you think it takes to get heads up). Are you still going all in on the flop here?

It would hard to make a +EV call every time, because if they make trips you are drawing very thin and must be making a -EV play by calling post flop.

My answer is re-raise as much as I think he will cal PF. :P

I don't think anyone mentioned the money that is already in the pot when it comes back to the original raiser. This changes the math a little.

If he raises 4xBB and you reraise to 20xBB, his choice is whether to call 16xBB to win 104xBB (assuming full stack implied odds). So he is getting 6.5-to-1 before the flop.

As another example, if he raises 8xBB and you reraise to 20xBB, his choice is whether to call 12xBB to win 108xBB. So he is getting 9-to-1 before the flop.

So you need to increase the amount you reraise based on the size of his original raise.

this is what i always do. (let's not talk about the position right now)

I re-raise with premium hands, AA,KK,AK,QQ.

I raise/call with strong hands, AKo, AQ, KQ, etc.

I call with any pockets below 8s. u get the point

Anyway, if someone has been raising all day long with decent hands then I would most likely reraise his bet by a little...make him come over the top then push him all in. If someone who has been playing tight...eh, you get the point. In a low limit game, the AA loses their value so quick because people will fish til the end, however in a NL game. Make them pay for it. I mean you have the best hand before the flop. You were lucky enough to get it (1:36) and dont let some other punk be luckier.

From a guy who plays aggressive with good cards...I wouldnt try to trap someone with AAs by slowing playing em because you never know if the other guy is trapping YOU by hitting a set or even a flush/straight draw...or maybe even 2 pairs.

The only time I would be scared to have the rockets is when some newb guy calls me. Newbies that call with 2,8 os shit like that and hit their runner runner flush or get 2 pairs...to crack my rockets...it sucks.

J10 is the BEST rocket crackers!

I think either option is acceptable. Pushing over the top isn't wrong, but I would probably call here. I think if you are BRed, calling is definately a more +EV move in the long run than pushing.

(someone correct me if I'm wrong....) You want worse hands to get in the pot with you pf, so then when you push the flop it puts them to a difficult decision with what will most likely be inferior cards. Yes, the potential for suckout is larger if you let more hands see the flop, but poker is about the long run. If you run this situation over and over, the sum of the all stacks you will lose when they hit their set is much, much less than the sum of the profit you will make when each time no one improves on the flop and KK or QQ goes all in or calls your push on a garbage board (Or when your AA improves to top set, crushing whatever hand they have)

EDIT: wouldnt this even be true if you had the same preflop action, but went into the flop 6 or 7 handed? The variance on this play would be rediculous, but its still very +EV right? If you go to a flop say 6 handed, and 6x your buyin or more will eventually compose the pot, then you only have to win 1/6 times to make it a correct play, and doesnt AA get better odds than that, even with 6 hands drawing against it? (Not that I would reccomend doing this, but hypothetically)

Originally Posted by Zangief

I don't think anyone mentioned the money that is already in the pot when it comes back to the original raiser. This changes the math a little.

If he raises 4xBB and you reraise to 20xBB, his choice is whether to call 16xBB to win 104xBB (assuming full stack implied odds). So he is getting 6.5-to-1 before the flop.

As another example, if he raises 8xBB and you reraise to 20xBB, his choice is whether to call 12xBB to win 108xBB. So he is getting 9-to-1 before the flop.

So you need to increase the amount you reraise based on the size of his original raise.

Alright, that makes sense.

So you've just gotta keep his odds of winning the rest of your stack+pot better than his odds to out flop you.

-'rilla

Ok, maybe I'm stupid, or stupid enough to not think it through, but I just always figured if someone raised me preflop and I had AA, that I go all in over the top. Of all the topics and questions I read on this site, This seemed the most simple and obvious to me. But then again, I'm not a Real Genius, it's just the title of a movie. I really think this got over analyzed.

Originally Posted by realgenius

Ok, maybe I'm stupid, or stupid enough to not think it through, but I just always figured if someone raised me preflop and I had AA, that I go all in over the top. Of all the topics and questions I read on this site, This seemed the most simple and obvious to me. But then again, I'm not a Real Genius, it's just the title of a movie. I really think this got over analyzed.

If someone raises to 8 bucks at 1/2 and you push for 200, how much value do you think AA is going to get you?

-'rilla

Well I guess when I have pocket rockets, I'm not thinking about value, I'm thinking about getting out of that hand without having them cracked. If you win $8, because you pushed all in, and he folded is alot better than trying to drag him into the pot and him catching something, and then you lose a nice chunk of change. But again, my logic is probably flawed.

Originally Posted by realgenius

Well I guess when I have pocket rockets, I'm not thinking about value, I'm thinking about getting out of that hand without having them cracked. If you win $8, because you pushed all in, and he folded is alot better than trying to drag him into the pot and him catching something, and then you lose a nice chunk of change. But again, my logic is probably flawed.

It is flawed. You'll never win any big pots that way. AA is my biggest winner and it's everyone's biggest winner becuase we play it post flop. Not becuase we just push every chance we get.

-'rilla

So basically what you guys are saying is that if opponents commit anything better than 20%ish of there stack when you have AA then you are +EV
Sounds good to me and 20% surely wont be a lot if they are raising infront of you.

Originally Posted by 'rilla

It is flawed. You'll never win any big pots that way. AA is my biggest winner and it's everyone's biggest winner becuase we play it post flop. Not becuase we just push every chance we get.

-'rilla

Because I don't lure people in with AA, means I won't win any big pots? I'd have to say that's pretty flawed.[/quote]

You always have +EV with AA. Any bet is ALWAYS the right move with them no matter how many opponents.

Heads-up you range from about an 8-1 favourite (vs 72o) down to about a 3-1 fav (vs suited connectors - the best cards to crack aces with). As more ops are added your chances of winning go down but the amount of money goes up to compensate and always give us +EV.

So l think the real question is - how much money do we need to average on our wins to compensate for our loss. We need a certain average amount from the wins to make up the time when we lose our entire stack.

Looking back at heads-up, AA vs. a random hand is about a 5.5-1 fav. If that 1 loss will cost us our 100bb then the 6 wins must avg. 19+bb to make playing AA profitable in the long run if we never fold them.

Originally Posted by realgenius

Originally Posted by 'rilla

It is flawed. You'll never win any big pots that way. AA is my biggest winner and it's everyone's biggest winner becuase we play it post flop. Not becuase we just push every chance we get.

-'rilla

Because I don't lure people in with AA, means I won't win any big pots? I'd have to say that's pretty flawed.

If your always chasing people out PF with Aces, that is playing bad poker IMO.

Of course AA's get cracked, the math dooms it to be so, however you are going to win hands much more often with AA then loose with them.

Winning pots with Aces postflop will makeup for the times when you get them cracked in the long run.....why chase out such a huge edge as AA PF to win a small bounty?

A lot of players are also on the "no set, no bet" policy, any PP is ~13% to flop set, or 1 in 7. For 100xBB stack you would need to get about 14xBB especially since you want to become pot commited as you stated earlier. In the higher levels people might fold with small PP because of a lack of implied pot odds but in low levels this is not the case you wanna avoid suckout and overbet.

Originally Posted by realgenius

Originally Posted by 'rilla

It is flawed. You'll never win any big pots that way. AA is my biggest winner and it's everyone's biggest winner becuase we play it post flop. Not becuase we just push every chance we get.

-'rilla

Because I don't lure people in with AA, means I won't win any big pots? I'd have to say that's pretty flawed.

No one will ever call another 90 bb into a 4 bb pot without AA or KK. Especially if you only push with AA preflop. No one will call you weak. However, a lot of people will call 3 more bb or 4 more bb frequently.

-'rilla

A couple thoughts. The average is like 3-4bb/hand with AA right? I remember seeing a large chart once and this was about average. So if someone raises to 4xbb and you make a large raise to 20xbb or more (AI) you are esentally making more bb off the hand then you might. PT tells me over 30 hands AA wins me 7bb/hand.


And, For the love of god whoever is disaggreeing with us. Rilla is looking for how much % of his stack he needs to put in pf to make it a MATH-CORRECT call. Right, if the flop is QJT he will probably reconsider....

Trying to attack this from a math POV, but given these assumptions:

Make the following assumptions:

You will be commited to any flop reguardless of op, action or board.
Op is not commited to calling.
Op will call preflop reraise.
Hand is HU.
If op outflops you, you will not catch up. (You wont hit any outs)
Hand basically ends on the flop as you will push.

The move is AI, 'cause you're going to do it anyway and they're going to call preflop and not nessisarily post-flop. Any less then AI and you let them walk away from the hand post flop if they don't like the cards. If the assumptions have been revised (I didn't read the thread too heavy), please correct and I'll re-evaluate.

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

Trying to attack this from a math POV, but given these assumptions:

Make the following assumptions:

You will be commited to any flop reguardless of op, action or board.
Op is not commited to calling.
Op will call preflop reraise.
Hand is HU.
If op outflops you, you will not catch up. (You wont hit any outs)
Hand basically ends on the flop as you will push.

The move is AI, 'cause you're going to do it anyway and they're going to call preflop and not nessisarily post-flop. Any less then AI and you let them walk away from the hand post flop if they don't like the cards. If the assumptions have been revised (I didn't read the thread too heavy), please correct and I'll re-evaluate.

I don't care how they react on the flop. I just want to make it +EV reguardless of their reaction. That's the number I was looking for here and everyone keeps trying to add layers of complicatedness to it.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

Trying to attack this from a math POV, but given these assumptions:

Make the following assumptions:

You will be commited to any flop reguardless of op, action or board.
Op is not commited to calling.
Op will call preflop reraise.
Hand is HU.
If op outflops you, you will not catch up. (You wont hit any outs)
Hand basically ends on the flop as you will push.

The move is AI, 'cause you're going to do it anyway and they're going to call preflop and not nessisarily post-flop. Any less then AI and you let them walk away from the hand post flop if they don't like the cards. If the assumptions have been revised (I didn't read the thread too heavy), please correct and I'll re-evaluate.

Im not sure I agree with this. By caling or reraising NOT some rediculous amount, you are getting them pot committed, and giving them a chance for their hand to improve (and it still probably will be very behind yours) I think they are in fact probably more likely to move or call an AI post flop.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I don't care how they react on the flop. I just want to make it +EV reguardless of their reaction. That's the number I was looking for here and everyone keeps trying to add layers of complicatedness to it.

Thing is, as stated the problem is real easy...you get the most EV when you push AI pre-flop, if you assume they will call that. Assuming the worst case senario (AA vs T9s), you're roughtly 3-1 to win, so your EV would be +$50 (75% of the time you win $100, 25% of the time you lose $100, .75*100+.25*-100=50)

If we want to remove the assumption of the pre-flop call and replace that with some rule or probability of calling, we can get something perhaps more meaningful.

so, does anyone disagree that if you are in the worst case scenario (AA vs. any lower pocket pair), that even 4bb preflop is enough to make pushing the rest of your stack on the flop +EV? (technically of course)

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I don't care how they react on the flop. I just want to make it +EV reguardless of their reaction. That's the number I was looking for here and everyone keeps trying to add layers of complicatedness to it.

Thing is, as stated the problem is real easy...you get the most EV when you push AI pre-flop, if you assume they will call that. Assuming the worst case senario (AA vs T9s), you're roughtly 3-1 to win, so your EV would be +$50 (75% of the time you win $100, 25% of the time you lose $100, .75*100+.25*-100=50)

If we want to remove the assumption of the pre-flop call and replace that with some rule or probability of calling, we can get something perhaps more meaningful.

That wasn't my question. My question was : "What was the minimum value I can raise to that will make a flop push (reguardless of a call) +EV. Assuming I only get called when I get outflopped."

-'rilla

Well, the question is how big chance does a hand calling a pfr have to out flop you.

To simplify lets say low pp's are calling. They will have about 11% chance of outflopping you. So your pre flop raise should be at least 11% of their stack if you are going to make this play every time.

Of course that is not the optimum way to play a high PP. (11%+ pfr then push)

Also its hard to estimate how often a worse hand will call your fop push(like KK unimproved), so the real number is probably less than a 11% pre flop raise required for it to show profit. I'm afraid this might not have the easy answer you are looking for at all.

Perhaps even limping followed by a push will show profit with AA!

The assumptions:
You will push post-flop
Opp will only call post-flop if they can beat AA
You will not hit any outs to beat them

If so, it would seem the post-flop push is irrelevant - either you will be called and beaten or opp folds...size does not matter. So in this case, size of the pre-flop action is irrelevant to the EV of the post-flop move...unless you want to assign a % to the chance they hit a hand that can beat you, then we could figure something out:
X = chance they out flopped you
Y = size of pre-flop raise (ignoring his 4 - doesn't matter, assuming no reraise)
Post-flop EV = (pre flop pot) * (1-X) - (remaining stack) * X
= (2 * Y) * (1 - X) - (100 - Y) * X
= 2Y - 2XY - 100X + XY
= -XY + 2Y - 100X

So going with the idea of them having a pocket pair and needing a set to outflop, giving .11 chance
EV = -.11Y + 2Y - 11
EV = 1.89Y - 11
Finding the break-even point means finding the 0 EV...
0 = 1.89Y - 11
1.89Y = 11
Y = 5.82
So in this instance, the minimum raise would be 6bb (reraise of 2), which would give EV of:
12 * .89 - 94 * .11 = 10.68 - 10.34 = .34

This is an interesting problem for a math test, but I'm not sure that it has any relevance at the poker table. There are too many probabilities involved which could only be meaningfully approximately with tons of data on your opponent, and even if that information was available, no human would be capable of using it properly anyways.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

This is an interesting problem for a math test, but I'm not sure that it has any relevance at the poker table. There are too many probabilities involved which could only be meaningfully approximately with tons of data on your opponent, and even if that information was available, no human would be capable of using it properly anyways.

No, you're dumb.

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

So in this instance, the minimum raise would be 6bb (reraise of 2), which would give EV of:
12 * .89 - 94 * .11 = 10.68 - 10.34 = .34

I don't know where your math went wrong, but it did.

You're saying that the opponent must only call 2 x BB to win about 100 x BB - giving him a payout of 50 times what he has to call.

Using .11, he will hit his set about 1-in-9 times.

EV for opponent = .11 * 100 + .89 * -2 = 9.89

Obviously bad news if your opponent gains 9.89 x BB each time you play AA against them.

I believe the correct break-even point is this:

.11 * 100 + (1 - .11) * -X = 0

.11 * 100 = .89 * X

X = .11 * 100 / .89 = 12.36

This is the amount you must reraise on top of whatever he has already bet just to break even playing this way.

If you reraise to 20 x BB total (16 x BB on top), this ends up being:

EV for opponent = .11 * 100 + .89 * -16 = -3.24

This is assuming they always call those big reraises.

I believe we were looking at making the move +EV for the hero, not -EV for the opponent. These are different problems when there's dead money (the pre-flop pot).

Did that answer your initial question, 'rilla, or have we all missed the mark again?

well, let's do this for a small pair

they outflop you 11% of the time
BUT
1% BOTH are going to get trips

in that one percent of the time you're going to double up
so a raise of 4xBB and then reading the texture of the flop is OK

i agree with rilla, you dont want to push people out of the pot with an all in reraise unless you think you can get calls.. at the lower stakes, you will get called often by queens and AK.

if its raised 4x BB in front of me, im going to kick it up between 3x to 4x the original raisers raise.

and at that point if i'm reraised again, i'm pushing.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by dsaxton

This is an interesting problem for a math test, but I'm not sure that it has any relevance at the poker table. There are too many probabilities involved which could only be meaningfully approximately with tons of data on your opponent, and even if that information was available, no human would be capable of using it properly anyways.

No, you're dumb.

Oh ok, I'm dumb. You win.

Why are you even a member here if that's the smartest thing you can say?

With Rockets I either reraise all in preflop;or move all in after the flop.More or less I never fold them preflop;sometimes I dump them if I know for sure the flop has me beat.Otherwise I let it ride.

this has got me thinking about moving AI preflop in a raised pot w/ AA. while i understand you would like to get others in the pot in order to commit them, i think, with the rough numbers im thinking in my head, moving AI preflop would be +EV simply because of the money you would gain everytime uncontested when everyone folds. I play .25/.5 nl tables, and if there are similar stacks around 45-55 bucks each, im in MP and someone in early raises it to 2.50 or 3 dollars, well, i think over time, the incredible amount of folds will overcompensate for the bad beat losses of moving all-in.

I'd go so far as to say you would be called 10% of the time at most. Worst case scenario, again, you are a 3:1 favorite if called, even so against multiple opponents.

so, in one hundred such hands, assuming someone raises in front of you 4XBB to make it 2.50 to call, you're winning 2.5 plus .75(blinds), 90 times out of a hundred, or 292.50$. The ten times you get called, you'll win 7 of those, at least, each one providing at least 53.25 a pop, bringing us to a winning total from 97 out 100 hands to 372.75+292.50=665.25. You'll lose, at most according to odds, 3 hands of the ten contested with, amounting to 150.00. All together, 665.25-150.00=515.25. So, holding pocket aces 100 times, you make an average of a little over 10XBB every time by going AI PF no matter what.

Maybe my math is off, but i really do feel that at tables from .25-.50 and higher nl, people will fold many times with an incredible raise, which will provide enough money to compensate for the bad beat breaks against aces. now, while it can probably be more profitable to play it a particular way, this is by far the easiest, and i don't think people will lose so much sleep over this type of situation. is an average winning of approximately 10XBB with aces very good? im not sure, this is the first thread ive every written considering +EV, but i gave it my best shot. be gentle if you think im being stupid.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by dsaxton

This is an interesting problem for a math test, but I'm not sure that it has any relevance at the poker table. There are too many probabilities involved which could only be meaningfully approximately with tons of data on your opponent, and even if that information was available, no human would be capable of using it properly anyways.

No, you're dumb.

Oh ok, I'm dumb. You win.

Why are you even a member here if that's the smartest thing you can say?

Well do you say that flop odds are more interesting for a math test? Do you think the win percentage of a hand in heads up is a combinatorics problem only?

An interesting concept here. However, note that if you do make a play such that you are always +EV in this situation, a good player will always fold the hand unless he too holds AA. Therefore, making a reraise so that you are always +EV if he calls is probably -EV, because you are ahead in the hand as is and want as much money in the pot as possible.

thats not certain that they won't play w/o aces, especially if they are on tilt. i mean, i know there have been times when someone makes a big raise AI w/ pocket rockets, and i think w/ my kk, "well, i just don't think they have it or they would've raised it quicker, not slowplayed as much..., etc." and then make the idiotic call. It will be called and most of the time, the rarity of both holding rockets will not occur.

I have found that most players will "overbet" the AA, KK on preflop and the amatures will go all in - What I usually do IF I got em and there are no big bets in front of me is bet around 4XBB and hope for a good flop.

If the flop shows a smaller pair I will only call smaller bets. If it flops a Set for me I will only bet 8XBB which alows the "fish" to call or rerise.

If the Turn makes a med. to big pair then I will bet 16xBB (now I have either a full house or 2 big pair) Only time I will call here and not bet is when there are 3 or 4 suited cards on table (unless they match my hand)

On the river if I am called (this all assumes that I have always made the Final raise-reraise in the hand and it is called) I will bet up to 24XBB if I feel I got it - I have seen over time most will fold at this point. If they call I have won about 60% of the time. If they reraise I will call and have won aroud 45% of the time.

Just my .02cents!

Very good observation... why would you bet if you wouldn't get a call from a weaker hand? Of course, this is assuming worst case scenario. But then the perfect play with these assumptions is not going all-in, but probably betting as much as you need to eliminate draws.

Of course you're going to take this calculation and apply texture and loose the players are... so why not start there? Although I can see how against loose players calling and then going all-in with a pair of aces will probably be EV+

According to the sticky....

flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards 2.02%

The sticky didn't seem to mention him having something like KK or QQ and flopping out that 3rd Q or K though.

If he raised, I'd probably triple it, and see if he folds out and if he doesn't watch out for Q and K on the flop (wouldn't fold, but be careful). Then go AI at the turn if he didn't commit to more bets.