Raising for value in position w TPTK then folding to raise?

Watching an episode of the WSOP from last year and saw a hand i thought was a bit wonky from John Bellande.

Unfortunately ESPN leaves out very important information like position and stack sizes but the hand went something like this:

PREFLOP: John Bellande is dealt AhJh
Villain (mp) raises, John Bellande (bu) calls, BB calls

FLOP: J T 2 (forget the suits but it's rainbow)

Villain bets 6k (3/4 PSB), John Bellande raises to 20k, BB folds, Villain gives it much thought but 3bets (forget the amount), John Bellande asks villain if he has a set and eventually folds.

Is this a sensible line with TPTK? i don't feel like there's any need to protect the hand against draws because we have position so he won't be seeing any free cards (his bet on the flop already gives him the wrong odds w a draw to the turn). his bet seems sufficient for value, and if he checks turn to us we can extract more value there (with most cards) and eval on river.

as played, we're folding to a raise? wtf did we expect? a flat on the flop with QJ and then extract from there? aren't we basically getting our stack in by the river with that line anyway (not sure about spr, but i doubt it could withstand a PFR, a bet/raise, and another street of value without being committed)?

Bellande is a pro, so i generally trust his thought processes/reads a lot more than my own, but if his reads were that of weakness, then why are we pushing him off the hand? if it's that of strength then we should call reval on turn shouldn't we?

anyway, criticizing the pro's play should be a running thread on here, it's exhilirating lol

I mean it's good if villain can flat with worse but if not it's obv. bad.

I think this is one reason live play is so much different than online and also why tourneys are so different than cash games. Obviously this pro thought he was behind - whether set or overpair (just because he asked him about a set doesn't mean that's really what he believes the guy has). Online you're going with stats, patterns and math. Live, he's getting a read off this guy, and he's going to trust it.
The other part - tourneys. While he could say "screw it" and make the guy pay in a cash game - having to reload if he's wrong, in a tourney you rarely can afford to be wrong.
I'm not saying his play was correct. I'm not saying I would've done the same. All I'm saying is it doesn't sound crazy that he laid it down.

i'm not questioning the fold. i'm questioning the raise/fold. i don't see how reads could possibly affect the decision in this case. reads affect whether you make a hero call on the river or make a squeeze play or something like that. i doubt he value raised because he got a read that he had QJ and was going to flat a raise

Originally Posted by surviva316

i'm not questioning the fold. i'm questioning the raise/fold. i don't see how reads could possibly affect the decision in this case. reads affect whether you make a hero call on the river or make a squeeze play or something like that. i doubt he value raised because he got a read that he had QJ and was going to flat a raise

See the range manipulation thread in ISF's blog. There are time when you can narrow villain's range to a group of hands where anything that beats you will raise, and anything you're ahead of calls/folds. If you can get villain to play this way, his cards are very much face up on the table. Probably has something to do with Bellande's instincts and how the parts of villain's range have to be played here.

There's a lot of history and metagame in these pro hands that can't be shown on TV. Besides, it looks cooler just to show the hands in isolation so it seems like the pros are reading souls or making huge mistakes.

Originally Posted by Robb

There are time when you can narrow villain's range to a group of hands where anything that beats you will raise, and anything you're ahead of calls/folds. If you can get villain to play this way, his cards are very much face up on the table.

does this mean that there might be some validity to "probe bets" or "feelers"? ugh.

disregard my last post. i just read ISF's blog and my head blew up. i now know what Level 4 poker is, and i will never question a pro again lol

bellande is a busto live pro

ISF is a robusto online PHENOM

comparing the two is pretty lulz

Also reads definitely can come into play in this situation. As you said the board is rainbow, which means that on average there probably won't be as much betting/raising going on, as you don't need to protect from draws, nor do you have draws in your raising range [barring KQ, 89]. So when Bellande raises here, his value range is likely rather narrow. Therefore, if Bellande knows villain will recognize this, and that the villain will feel Bellande bluffs often enough in this spot, then it is quite possible the villain will play back lighter and 3bet bluff more often, and 3bet lighter for value more often. Or even call, and check/get it in on a blank turn.

However, if this history was there then it's probably bad to raise AJ here for value, then fold if you know villain is thinking in this manner. Either way, this is a spot "I" usually call in. We aren't terribly upset with any card, as K/Q give us a gutshot even.

Also, I<3 ISF!

I was going to compare 3b/folding preflop with raise/folding on the flop.

Those are two things I never do for value.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Either way, this is a spot "I" usually call in. We aren't terribly upset with any card, as K/Q give us a gutshot even.

range manipulation aside, isn't this why we just call here? it seems far less likely that we're getting more value from lesser hands on a flop raise, then we are on the turn, so if the turn is unlikely to get us off the hand, then why are we trying to get our money in now?

fwiw, villain had KQo, and not only played it right (other than the fact that i can't imagine that the stacks were SO big that he couldn't push here in the middle stages of an MTT), but he also obviously managed to give off a baffling read.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

bellande is a busto live pro

ISF is a robusto online PHENOM

comparing the two is pretty lulz

Sorry to ISF, then, I'd never heard of Bellande.