question on how often my opponent needs to fold to make a semi bluff +ev

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

You're cool. I'm not insulted by you, only by my own self-criticism.

By the way... the following question touches one of my pet peeves, so bear with the semi-rant that comes. It's not about you, so much as the failed education system which tells people that it's OK to be voluntarily ignorant.


Well, first off, I told you exactly the math for a full calculation when you are not all-in, and all you had to do was ask. I'm not so sure I see what you mean by the information being hard to find.

BUT, assuming that you have a point which I have simply not observed, I assume that it's mostly because people have been told that it's OK to not be embarrassed if they can't do grade-school math. So people who are fully capable of doing the math say, "it's hard," as if the difficulty of math-thinking is even remotely comparable to the actual difficult things they deal with (and solve) on an hourly basis.

Also, people want to believe that there is some "neat trick" that they can memorize to be good at poker, and when they see a simplified, dumbed down EV calc which assumes they're all in, they shy away from it. So what's the point of showing them a more complicated EV calculation with fewer assumptions when they don't even care enough to try to understand the most simple forms?


E.g. you've still not answered these 5 questions:


Why is that?

yes you did tell me i meant the info isn't readily available. on google and what not.

Originally Posted by grumpy64

yes you did tell me i meant the info isn't readily available. on google and what not.

... and I offered my opinion as to why that is, but you didn't answer my question.
Specifically, the final line of my previous post.

I suspect that the general answer to your own question coincides with the reason that you have not followed those 5 steps.
(No judgement from me. Like I said, I'm a geek about this stuff.)

For what ever reason, I told you exactly how to do this, but you have not yet (given me any sign that you have) done it.
I suspect this is indicative of a common theme. Whatever your own reasons for not doing this are probably a lot of people's reasons for not doing it.


I mean... there's a lot of guess work when it comes to an actual calculation. You have to guess Villain's ranges for each decision point, and no one likes to know they're wasting time chasing down a solution based on a handful of guesses. However, it is by doing exactly this over and over that you build your skills in doing it. Eventually, you see all sorts of patterns in the calculations and you can make quick educated guesses as to the "ballpark" of the answer w/o doing the full calc. That's when the time spent studying transfers to live skills at the table.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

... and I offered my opinion as to why that is, but you didn't answer my question.
Specifically, the final line of my previous post.

I suspect that the general answer to your own question coincides with the reason that you have not followed those 5 steps.
(No judgement from me. Like I said, I'm a geek about this stuff.)

For what ever reason, I told you exactly how to do this, but you have not yet (given me any sign that you have) done it.
I suspect this is indicative of a common theme. Whatever your own reasons for not doing this are probably a lot of people's reasons for not doing it.


I mean... there's a lot of guess work when it comes to an actual calculation. You have to guess Villain's ranges for each decision point, and no one likes to know they're wasting time chasing down a solution based on a handful of guesses. However, it is by doing exactly this over and over that you build your skills in doing it. Eventually, you see all sorts of patterns in the calculations and you can make quick educated guesses as to the "ballpark" of the answer w/o doing the full calc. That's when the time spent studying transfers to live skills at the table.

Ok well i have paid attention to u but one problem i have had is this "Hero bluffs OTT, Villain folds:" I don't know how often V folds the turn. that was the whole point of this thread i want an equation that tells me how often they need to fold.

Originally Posted by grumpy64

Ok well i have paid attention to u but one problem i have had is this "Hero bluffs OTT, Villain folds:" I don't know how often V folds the turn. that was the whole point of this thread i want an equation that tells me how often they need to fold.

Start by assign the unknown value (Vill's % chance to fold OTT) as a variable.
(I used x as the variable, but literally anything will do. Use a star or a cat face for all it matters, it's just a place-holder.)

Then do all the 5 steps.

You will have constructed the equation you need to solve.

You will have the EV equation, with 1 variable in it. Now the trick is to solve it for the variable. It should always be a little bit of algebra and no higher math is needed.