question on how often my opponent needs to fold to make a semi bluff +ev

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Show me.

risk / (risk + reward)
pot has 10 and our bet would be 7.75
7.75/(10+7.75)= around 42.2%

Originally Posted by grumpy64

risk / (risk + reward)
pot has 10 and our bet would be 7.75
7.75/(10+7.75)= around 42.2%

Should be {total risk}/{total reward}
7.75/10 = .775 = 77.5%


Normally, when we evaluate the EV of this situation, we're talking about a bet which is called. The 7.75 in the denominator comes from Villain's calling chips, not our own contribution to the pot. Since Villain is not calling, we do not add that value to the reward.


Villain's fold freq is so high because we're assuming that it's a pure bluff and Hero has 0 outs and 0 value if Villain calls.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Should be {total risk}/{total reward}
7.75/10 = .775 = 77.5%


Normally, when we evaluate the EV of this situation, we're talking about a bet which is called. The 7.75 in the denominator comes from Villain's calling chips, not our own contribution to the pot. Since Villain is not calling, we do not add that value to the reward.


Villain's fold freq is so high because we're assuming that it's a pure bluff and Hero has 0 outs and 0 value if Villain calls.

ok well i got the formula i used from here http://www.splitsuit.com/simple-poker-bluff-math . in big blue letters near the middle of the page he says use risk / (risk + reward)