QQ MP against super nits UTG raise -5NL

Villain is running vpip 8 and pfr 6.
I really wasn't sure what to do in this hand.
If I put him on a range of KQs+, AQo+, JJ+ then I have like 52% equity.

I think if the ace or king hits the flop it's an easy fold, but what if it it's a low flop? what's the best approach here - bet the flop and fold if check-raised? flat call 3 streets as long as there's no ace or king? call flop and fold if he fires the second barrel? ( seems too weak passive)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($2.03)
BB ($3.69)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($4.28)
MP1 ($11.41)
Hero (MP2) ($10.66)
MP3 ($9.95)
CO ($5.30)
Button ($4.14)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q
UTG bets $0.20, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20, 4 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) J, K, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $0.40, Hero folds, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.42) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, UTG raises to $1, 1 fold

Total pot: $1.92 | Rake: $0.09

Im still of the "omg i haz QQ" kind of mind set, so im not really confident here.

But...i guess i can say NH?

As to low flops, itll depend alot on what bb and utg do before you act. If they all check ill likely be betting to get value out of any weird things that connect for the bb since utg likely has air, if bb checks and utg bets im probably just trying to get to showdown. if bb bets then we'd need info on him to go further...like if he only has sets here or if he bets draws or w/e. UTG is so tight though that his range is really defined no matter what he does, and he'll play it fairly predictably.

nice hand
on a T42rb flop you can do pretty much anything to a flop c-bet, but you can mostly just call cos he's gonna give up a lot if he doesn't have you beat and i dunno whether you wanna try and bluff with your overpair.

Well played.

If his stats are accurate, you can't 3bet for value preflop. You are ahead of his opening range, so can call preflop. You have loads of implied odds also.

On the flop, given it's 3handed, the liklihood of UTG cbetting with an inferior hand is probably pretty minimal (he might even c/f AQ). I wouldn't recommend even peeling one here. But if you do call flop, and he bets turn, it's certainly a fold, because the chances that he keeps aggressive without having you beat is likely close to 0.

What's his UTG opening range? Its hard to tell sometimes by total VPIP.. but I've seen people running like 10/8 have an UTG range of 7/7. Some people open the same hands from all positions as retarded as that sounds and its more common than you think.

I would suggest a HUD like mine where your main popup shows all positional stats. Here is a screenshot: Would you 3-bet this guy's UTG raise with QQ?



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regardless of how positionally aware he is, even if he's opening the same exact amount from all positions, 6% of hands is a very tight/strong range.

i'm never 3b'ing this villain with this hand to an UTG open.

as jkds outlined, postflop is going to be about putting him on ranges, which is a very easy exercise against described villain. i'm unlikely to call 3 streets on T42 rainbow flop because we basically only beat JJ and he's never bluffing. if it's HU and the flop comes like K72 two-toned, then i'm peeling a street because i expect him to cbet it with his whole range, and then play very straigt forward.

etc...

Originally Posted by surviva316

regardless of how positionally aware he is, even if he's opening the same exact amount from all positions, 6% of hands is a very tight/strong range.

i'm never 3b'ing this villain with this hand to an UTG open.

as jkds outlined, postflop is going to be about putting him on ranges, which is a very easy exercise against described villain. i'm unlikely to call 3 streets on T42 rainbow flop because we basically only beat JJ and he's never bluffing. if it's HU and the flop comes like K72 two-toned, then i'm peeling a street because i expect him to cbet it with his whole range, and then play very straigt forward.

etc...

6% is not that strong.. its like 88+, ATs+, KQs

If he calls we know we are crushing his range, if he 4-bets its likely an easy fold.. 3-betting for value seems like the best play most of the time here.. building a big pot in position amplifies a bad villain's mistakes, and that's what we want right?

fwiw, the rest of my post didn't follow from me saying that villain's range was tight because it's besides the point (and call me crazy, but i consider 88+, AQo+, AJs+ to be an extremely strong range in a single raised pot)

your logic doesn't address at all the frequency with which villain calls a 3b with a dominated hand. if the answer's never, then 3b'ing for value here isn't a good play pretty much regardless of other circumstances. i happen to think he's not calling with AQ/JJ a ton here, so we're very very unnecessarily turning our hand into a bluff.

also, your post doesn't even address what players we have left to act behind us. we're almost never winning a big pot off of the nitty UTG (unless we gin the flop and cooler him), so trying to "amplify a villain's mistake" by squeezing a couple extra nickles out of the few times that he calls with JJ and we both flop well pales in comparison to allowing a bunch of call happy players call with J7s and crap and snap stack off when they flop top pair, whereas we push them out of the pot when we 3b.

Originally Posted by surviva316

regardless of how positionally aware he is, even if he's opening the same exact amount from all positions, 6% of hands is a very tight/strong range.

i'm never 3b'ing this villain with this hand to an UTG open.

as jkds outlined, postflop is going to be about putting him on ranges, which is a very easy exercise against described villain. i'm unlikely to call 3 streets on T42 rainbow flop because we basically only beat JJ and he's never bluffing. if it's HU and the flop comes like K72 two-toned, then i'm peeling a street because i expect him to cbet it with his whole range, and then play very straigt forward.

etc...

looking at his stats , over 145 hands he's pretty even over the different positions. I think the sample is small to really make anything of it.

I like what u said about him cbetting his entire range. I need to think about that and look at his stats for that kind of thing in game.

Thanks guys

Looks fine to me.