PStove question: not understanding

Okay so i made some ridiculous fold in the Gauntlet today somewhat as a joke because i thought someones range was QQ+, 88-77, and rarely 44, and i was 100% sure of that. Thinking my hand is crushed against 88/77/QQ/44, and i am only slightly ahead of AA/KK, i folded thinking my equity was worse than 30%. I did the range, Monte Carlo, on Poker stove and found that i was flipping against that range to my amazement. when i just evaluated it came to i was ahead about 54/46.

Is pokerstove wrong? There calculation here seems way off. Is it just mathematically way more like for them to have AA/KK here?

Well if 88,77, and 44 are sets then it is mathematically more likely for them to have AA or KK...

That seems off though

What was your hand and the board?

PokerStars Game #13824549060: Tournament #62275659, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2007/12/12 - 22:24:30 (ET)
Table '62275659 3' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: heybude (1095 in chips)
Seat 2: kingnat (1489 in chips)
Seat 4: will641 (2681 in chips)
Seat 6: LolTrappedU (1640 in chips)
Seat 8: Warpe (2095 in chips)
Seat 9: spinswell (1500 in chips)
kingnat: posts small blind 15
will641: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Warpe [3c 2s]
LolTrappedU: folds
Warpe: folds
LolTrappedU said, "he caught mass bruffin!"
spinswell: raises 60 to 90
heybude: calls 90
kingnat: folds
will641: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [4c 8h 7d]
will641: checks
spinswell: bets 200
heybude: calls 200
will641: folds
*** TURN *** [4c 8h 7d] [Qc]
spinswell: bets 600
heybude said, "wtf"
heybude said, "hmmmm"
LolTrappedU said, "you have 35 seconds left to act"
heybude said, "is it dumb to fold Q4s here?"
LolTrappedU said, "no"
LolTrappedU said, "waut"
heybude said, "k cool"
LolTrappedU said, "yes"
heybude: folds
spinswell collected 685 from pot
spinswell: doesn't show hand
LolTrappedU said, "you didnt fold Q4"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 685 | Rake 0
Board [4c 8h 7d Qc]
Seat 1: heybude (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 2: kingnat (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: will641 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: LolTrappedU folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Warpe folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: spinswell collected (685)

Wow yeah 50% equity i wouldnt have thought that. I guess the cards out make sets less likely for him plus you have 2 outs if he did flop a set.

In reality I think you have to widen his range a little lol. Why cant he have AQ here sometimes? plus the fact it's the gauntlet and he could be running some crazy bluff cos it looks like yr drawing.

I get almost exactly 50/50

6 ways to have QQ+ = 18

3 ways to have the sets except 44 = 7

So you are usually ahead, but I assume you knew that.

I think this is your problem:

and i am only slightly ahead of AA/KK

Board: 4c 8h 7d Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.182% 18.18% 00.00% 432 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 81.818% 81.82% 00.00% 1944 0.00 { Q4s, Q4o }



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.318% 49.32% 00.00% 3906 0.00 { QQ+, 88-77, 44 }
Hand 1: 50.682% 50.68% 00.00% 4014 0.00 { Q4s, Q4o }


---

yeah why the hell did you think 8 outs on the river is like 40% equity, running bad?

yea theres 6 ways to have AA but only 3 ways to have 77, and you have a blocker to QQ and 44.

Originally Posted by Warpe

heybude said, "is it dumb to fold Q4s here?"
LolTrappedU said, "no"
LolTrappedU said, "waut"
heybude said, "k cool"
LolTrappedU said, "yes"
heybude: folds
spinswell collected 685 from pot
spinswell: doesn't show hand
LolTrappedU said, "you didnt fold Q4"

I STILL DON'T BELIEVE YOU

Hmmmm thanks guys, I guess i was way more ahead of AA/KK than i thought. I also didn't take how few sets there were in to account.