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 Originally Posted by OngBonga
He limped ace rag, that was a bigger mistake that calling all in with the nuts. How often is he stacking off three way vs 2 aces, with one drawing to the flush? Not very often at all. How often does someone overplay a set in these kind of spots? More often. I don't think it was a mistake to call. Of course, after you see the result, it's easy to say you can get away from it, but unless people literally have their hands face up, this is never actually going to be folded..
I think you and I could probably have some very passionate debates on the differences between live and online poker. I realize that online, which is what this site is about, most people are at least somewhat balanced, and have ranges, etc. In live poker, that all goes out the window. I would bet my house, car, and 1.5 of my lungs that everybody has an ace here.
I didn't mention exact stack sizes, but assuming around 100BB's, then V2 called off 960 to basically chop.
He's basically giving his opponents a free-roll on his 960 stack in order to protect, and break even, on his $40 investment in the pot. Any flush draw should have about 15-20%. Multiply that by 960 and it's WAY more than $40. Easy fold.
Chopping is EV neutral. We have about a 20% chance of losing about 1000 dollars, so let's call that -200.
In order to overcome that -200, we need both V's to have a ridiculous range. The total profit we make by winning the pot outright is about 2090 if I've done my math right, so we need about a 10% chance of beating both V's. I don't see how that's even possible as the lack of pre-flop and flop action pretty much denies the possibility of two pair, or sets.
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