Possible bluff spot

I don't want to isolate myself against the top of his range, if i just call i keep in hands like AJ and KQ which i'm doing well against. If i 3bet i'm going to get a shitload of folds which will be +EV especially with blockers to AK AA QQ but when he continues i'm not going to win very often.

This could be retarded thinking on my part though.

Villains open from SB range: {22+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} = 117 combo's total.

Let's assume he folds {22-TT, AJ, KQ} to a 3-bet, that's 78 combo's.

That's 66.66% of the time.

The pot is 0.21 when he raises, do we take out the BB from our bet size i'm not sure? So if we 3-bet to 0.40 are we only betting 0.35 because our 0.05 was already in? I think that's right.

So when we 3-bet to 0.40 then, 0.35/(0.35+0.21) = 0.625

So 3-betting AQ here is +EV in a vacuum.

What's interesting is if i remove TT from his folding range, he's only folding 61.5% so this 3-bet as a pure bluff with no equity would be -EV, but we have equity vs his calling range so it's probably borderline +EV.

Also if he folds AJ and we give him a calling range of {JJ-TT,AQs,AQo} we have 45% equity if we add AJ in we have 55% equity so does this 3-bet now become for value?

The more PP's i include into his calling range the lower our equity gets, we have 49% vs a calling range of {JJ-22,AQs-AJs,AQo-AJo} also since he's not folding anywhere near enough a 3-bet pure bluff would now be -EV, but i'd expect him to play most PP's fit-fold post-flop so he'd probably fold to a lot more c-bets.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

Villains open from SB range: {22+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} = 117 combo's total.

I won't try to know how these stakes operate. But this is just WAAAY too tight of a range. I'm sure you can filter for steal by position and search some of your higher volume players to see what their SB steal is. Or even look at your own SB steal, what is it?

The range you created is someone essentially opening an UTG range of 10-11% (which is a range created with 5 ppl left to act), when it's folded around to them in SB with only one person left to act?

Also this is very villain dependent. The tightest of people would show up with at least 20% of a range here. Some people can be as high as 60%.

For all I know if you look up stats I could be wrong, but I would be pretty shocked.