Wow, thanks for telling how many places I was way off.(really, thanks that's exactly what I was looking for.)

One question however, what's the BI to this tourny? The reason I ask is this, really low BI,=(I think) less competant players. not all morons obviously, just less solid players. And if that's the case, then there are more players who are afraid of MUB in a situation like this. for several reasons I say this:
1) If it a freeroll/ really cheap BI tourny, there's less solid players in general
2)It's early so those weak players are still around.
3)People not wanting to bust out early, playing conservative. They will be more likely to be on the watch for these kinds of hands (so looking to play with Q's or Spades only.

Don't even listen any more slev, this is just a continuation of my wrong thought process that i'm trying to work out.

EDIT: I do however see what your saying about the bet sizing, that I hear loud and clear, and it makes 100% sense.