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Overpair + OESD, call or shove? ($4NL)

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  1. #1
    daviddem's Avatar
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    He also has a lot of FD + overcards and NFD + undercard in his raising range. Maybe even AJ.

    Probably T8s should be in the range if you include T9s and 98s.

    I'd also give him more top pair + gutshot, ie all the QTs.

    Wouldn't give him T9o, 98o.

    I also wouldn't be so sure he flats ATo preflop, but I kept it in there anyway.

    Code:
    Board: 8d Th 9d
    Dead:  
    
        equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
    Hand 0:     50.997%      47.83%     03.16%              26518          1754.50   { JcJs }
    Hand 1:     49.003%      45.84%     03.16%              25413          1754.50   { TT-88, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 98s, ATo, QJo, JTo }
    Still pretty much a coin flip but I prefer shoving to calling. Don't give free cards to his draws, you have a decent number of outs against his two pair hands and even against his sets, and he will think twice next time before semi-bluffing.

    Also his raise sizing sucks. Either he has no idea about sizing, or he makes it small on purpose to get cheap free cards or try to get a fold for really cheap. If he really has a hand like two pairs or a set, or even a straight, he is not charging straight/flush draws and sets nearly enough.
    Last edited by daviddem; 02-15-2013 at 06:08 AM.
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