Overpair + OESD, call or shove? ($4NL)

I've been playing a fairly loose-aggro player for about 100 hands; nothing too fancy, no big reads. He's ~25/15/2.0 and he's got position on me and got me covered.

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

UTG: $2.51
Hero (UTG+1): $4.12
MP1: $7.73
MP2: $4.00
CO: $5.55
BTN: $4.29
SB: $6.95
BB: $0.79

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is UTG+1 with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, MP1 calls $0.16, 3 folds, SB calls $0.14, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.52) 8 T 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.39, MP1 raises to $1.04, SB folds,
Hero...???

Nice flop for me. I've got TP's hands (AT and maybe JT) beat, but with his raise he could easily have a set, or possibly two pair (T9 is feasible), or a pair + a FD. And worst case he has a made straight.

Here's what Stove says for what I think is a realistic continuing range for the villain: pairs, sets, and some broadway draws minus premium PP which he probably would have 3bet with preflop:

Board: 9d 8d ThHero: 48.97% { JsJc }
Villain: 51.03% { TT-88,ATs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KdTd,QdTd,ATo,QJo,JTo,T9o,9 8o }

Do I shove? Do I just call?

He also has a lot of FD + overcards and NFD + undercard in his raising range. Maybe even AJ.

Probably T8s should be in the range if you include T9s and 98s.

I'd also give him more top pair + gutshot, ie all the QTs.

Wouldn't give him T9o, 98o.

I also wouldn't be so sure he flats ATo preflop, but I kept it in there anyway.

Code:

Board: 8d Th 9d
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     50.997%      47.83%     03.16%              26518          1754.50   { JcJs }
Hand 1:     49.003%      45.84%     03.16%              25413          1754.50   { TT-88, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 98s, ATo, QJo, JTo }

Still pretty much a coin flip but I prefer shoving to calling. Don't give free cards to his draws, you have a decent number of outs against his two pair hands and even against his sets, and he will think twice next time before semi-bluffing.

Also his raise sizing sucks. Either he has no idea about sizing, or he makes it small on purpose to get cheap free cards or try to get a fold for really cheap. If he really has a hand like two pairs or a set, or even a straight, he is not charging straight/flush draws and sets nearly enough.

Not playing cash atm but my $0.02:

I think some of your range for villain would not have flat called preflop from MP (98o, T9o...). I think you could also add the hands that would raise this flop with 2 overs + OESD (KJ, AJ - 8 combos of each).

If you shove he's calling $2.92 to win $8.44 = 34.6% pot odds so you can't even price him out of any draw / pair & draw hands but it's still probably better than flatting.

Edit: ninja'd somewhat

Actually, thoughts on flat flop / shove blank turn?

Originally Posted by Luco

Actually, thoughts on flat flop / shove blank turn?

I think it's pretty much equivalent from an EV standpoint, but against this guy, and with his raise sizing, I prefer shoving.

edit: I hadn't paid attention that it's FR, it probably makes stuff like SC's and suited aces in his range less likely in this position.

Originally Posted by daviddem

He also has a lot of FD + overcards and NFD + undercard in his raising range. Maybe even AJ.

Probably T8s should be in the range if you include T9s and 98s.

I'd also give him more top pair + gutshot, ie all the QTs.

Wouldn't give him T9o, 98o.

I also wouldn't be so sure he flats ATo preflop, but I kept it in there anyway.

I was hesitant to put in some of the bway gunshots, but you might be right. And yeah maybe take out T9 & 98 offsuit. I also forgot about 77 which is definitely in his range and which he's surely raise with. Eitherway though, it's about 50-50.

Also his raise sizing sucks. Either he has no idea about sizing, or he makes it small on purpose to get cheap free cards or try to get a fold for really cheap.

I was thinking he wanted a call and build the pot because he already had a monster (straight) or had a draw himself.

Actually yes with a straight it would be a decent sizing because he would want to keep your overpairs in while somewhat charging your relatively few possible flush draws and gutshots, and he should expect you to shove over with your sets. So a straight makes sense, but so do all the combo draws and pair + draw hands, etc.