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 Originally Posted by fatguy'06
As previously stated, the cbet was expected whether he hit on the flop or not. I figure he would call/ re-raise a raise if he had a queen, queens beat, or maybe FD and would fold with anything else. So of the 24 possible hands I put him on, I' m guessing he would fold about 18 of them (75%). With this in mind I think my reraise, should have been around or slightly less than 75% pot (around $0.20). Because I obviously couldnt raise by that much, I went for .24 to win .29 which makes the decision overall unprofitable.
Is your math right here? If you expect to have 75% fold equity and 0 equity if he continues (an oversimplification), then you can bet up to 3 times pot profitably as a bluff. Right?
75%(pot) - 25%(bet) > 0
3(pot) > bet
EDIT -- Never mind, I just read JKDS's post which says the same thing. Sorry.
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