NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Villain has opened every button for 3 orbits:

SB: $10.24 (102.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $17.73 (177.3 bb)
CO: $7.60 (76 bb)
BTN: $11.62 (116.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K 3
CO folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15

His range is very wide, we'll just say the top 50% of hands as an estimate.

Flop: ($0.55) 4 2 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

He has cbet both of the 2 times I've seen him see a flop, the sample is too small to be particularly useful, but with the somewhat loose preflop stats, I'll give him a wide range of made hands, semibluffs and air, let's go with:

22+,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s ,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Turn: ($1.15) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

When he checks behind, I'll eliminate from his range hands he'd want 3 streets of value for like overpairs and sets, plus decent semibluffing hands like open ended straight draws. That leaves him with marginal top pair hands, smaller pairs and air like bare overcards.

33,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s, A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

River: ($1.15) J (2 players)

The river comes an overcard that doesn't improve any drawing hands. Of his range above, I think he'll fold bare overcards and anything else weaker than a pair of 7s, so his calling or raising range is:

AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,AJo,A7 o,KJo,QJo,JTo

and his folding range is:

33,AQs+,ATs-A8s,A6s-A2s,KQs,KTs,QTs,AQo+,ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,KQo,KTo,QTo

That's 214 combos out of 322, or 66% or 2/3. That's a really big percentage - in a vacuum, I could bet twice the pot, risking 2 units to win 3, which would require him to fold 2/3 of the time. It's not necessary to bet anywhere near that much, and I can make a highly profitable much smaller bluff of half the pot:

Hero bets $0.60

Okay I just want to say good job on your analysis here before I tell you that your flop call was beyond terrible. You should take a few minutes to analyze simply raising the flop.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Okay I just want to say good job on your analysis here before I tell you that your flop call was beyond terrible. You should take a few minutes to analyze simply raising the flop.

Thanks for the feedback, I did the analysis and can see how little of his range can stand a flop raise.

I looked at sizing and couldn't really make my mind up, instinctively I feel like making it about 10bb looks good, does that sound reasonable and what's your thought process about sizing flop raises?

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Thanks for the feedback, I did the analysis and can see how little of his range can stand a flop raise.

I looked at sizing and couldn't really make my mind up, instinctively I feel like making it about 10bb looks good, does that sound reasonable and what's your thought process about sizing flop raises?

This can be a somewhat complicated topic (as all bet sizing topics can be), but the basic idea is that you want to think about the odds you're giving him to call and if those odds actually matter (ie: if he's folding a lot regardless of bet sizes).