NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

Originally Posted by relaywisp

Was the bluff profitable?
I put in 3.10, and the pot was (1.60+1.05) 2.65 before my raise. Assuming I lose whenever he doesn't fold flop, he needs to fold 3.10/(3.10+2.65) or ~54% of the time

The original range I had had him folding 164/(119+164) = 58%
Tighter cbet range had him folding 156/(99+156) = 61%

It is possible that the population is cbetting less on dry boards like this. If villain on average is betting 55% instead of 75% here my analysis may be way off.

Quick note for everyone that we're going to look at how to get better estimates of whether we're profitable with semi-bluffs like this later, so the fact that you have outs to a strong hand will be incorporated into the situation later on.

Originally Posted by MarinaD

Since the only way i can win this unimproved hand is bluffing

I just want to point out that him having a low c-bet could mean that he's not necessarily bluffing the flop all that much. Along these lines, he's checking the flop with a number of hands that you beat, so there are plenty that you could check behind and beat with your A-high. It doesn't really change the hand that much by the river, but I just want you to be aware of what could be a slight contradiction in your thought process regarding the turn.



Also, we have a randomness/general chat thread at this link that we'd really like you guys to get in on so that you can meet some cool people here at FTR besides me.

I don't think he is checking behind with A high on a K high board and calling a turn bet.
Yeah, his low cbet flop could mean that he is no bluffing a lot, but his low x/f makes me think that he is betting with his strong and weak hands, and checking with his medium strength ones.
Y try not to be very optimistic when doing a bluff

Originally Posted by MarinaD

I don't think he is checking behind with A high on a K high board and calling a turn bet.
Yeah, his low cbet flop could mean that he is no bluffing a lot, but his low x/f makes me think that he is betting with his strong and weak hands, and checking with his medium strength ones.
Y try not to be very optimistic when doing a bluff

@bold, Hey it's my fault for not clarifying, but I was talking about the turn instead of the river hehe.

Here’s mine…
This is a spot where I was considering a 4-bet bluff. Didn’t have enough hands on villain for any accurate read but he had 3-bet my steals a couple of times. For the sake of this exercise I’ll assume these stats are reliable.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BTN): 146.5 BB
SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 36)
BB (BB): 142.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG (UTG): 85 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
CO (CO): 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 210)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:
Jd 6d

fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, fold, Hero?


3B% of 16. As he’s raising my BTN open I’ll assume the wider part of his 3B range which would look like:
33+,A3s+,KTs+,A7o+ = 200 combos
If I 4-bet in this situation this situation I would typically bet just under 3x his raise so I’m considering a 4bet of 35BB.
I estimate he will continue against this raise with a range of:
TT+ AQs+ AKo = 51 combos
So He’s folding 149 combination of starting hands
= Fold frequency of 0.75
My raise makes the pot 54BB. 35/54 = 0.648
0.648 < 0.75 so I’m going to conclude that a bluff in this spot is profitable?
I know the range I’ve given him here is highly debateable given the small sample size and that most opponents will tighten up more than this to a 4-bet, but I just settled on these ranges to practice this week’s lesson.

Originally Posted by 1QDOG7

Here’s mine…
This is a spot where I was considering a 4-bet bluff. Didn’t have enough hands on villain for any accurate read but he had 3-bet my steals a couple of times. For the sake of this exercise I’ll assume these stats are reliable.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BTN): 146.5 BB
SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 36)
BB (BB): 142.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG (UTG): 85 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
CO (CO): 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 210)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:
Jd 6d

fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, fold, Hero?


3B% of 16. As he’s raising my BTN open I’ll assume the wider part of his 3B range which would look like:
33+,A3s+,KTs+,A7o+ = 200 combos
If I 4-bet in this situation this situation I would typically bet just under 3x his raise so I’m considering a 4bet of 35BB.
I estimate he will continue against this raise with a range of:
TT+ AQs+ AKo = 51 combos
So He’s folding 149 combination of starting hands
= Fold frequency of 0.75
My raise makes the pot 54BB. 35/54 = 0.648
0.648 < 0.75 so I’m going to conclude that a bluff in this spot is profitable?
I know the range I’ve given him here is highly debateable given the small sample size and that most opponents will tighten up more than this to a 4-bet, but I just settled on these ranges to practice this week’s lesson.

I think that there are some mistakes.
Since you've already put 4bb with your open raise, you are only risking 31bb, not 35bb.
The total pot would be = 4bb (your or) + 13bb (his 3bet) + 1bb (the big blind) + 31bb (your 4bet) = 49bb

So 31/49= 0.632

Also, i would make the 4bet a bit smaller. Between 28bb-32bb.

It's difficult to give an unknown villain a 3bet range.
16% can look like:

Yours:
16a.jpg

With more blockers:
16b.jpg

Or some other morphology.

In this case i don't think it's relevant because you are not blocking lots of combos with your J6s and i think his all in range is the same despite his morphology. But your analysis may vary with a hand with blockers like KQ for example.

All good points. Thanks man. More practice needed methinks.