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Need some help with odds and outs!

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  1. #1

    Default Need some help with odds and outs!

    Correct me if im wrong but I have bee trying to memorise the following -
    Drawing to-
    Trips are 22 to 1
    Full House or Straight is 11 to 1
    OE straight is 5 to 1
    Flush draw is 4 to 1

    So if I was calling to an OE str8 draw I would need 5 times the call amount in the pot for it to be correct?
  2. #2
    I am not sure if your right on the odds, however I am pretty sure that the way you are reading it is correct If the odds are 5-1 than a pot of 5-1 saying that is a break even point. If I am correct but I am a newbie I would also think that you would want better pot odds than that to make it profitable. However I am sure that spoon or jyms will give this some better thought
    Don
  3. #3
    sarbox68's Avatar
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    An open-ended straight draw on the flop is 4.7:1 to hit on the next card. A flush 4.1:1.

    So for strict pot odds - it would be correct to call a $1 bet into a $4.10 pot ASSUMING everything else is equal and you're likely to draw to a winning hand (this is especially an issue if you're drawing to a straight on a 3-flush flop...)

    With drawing hands implied odds also come into play.... how much more money you will be able to extract from vils IF your draw hits. So, for example, if you need to call $1 into a $3 pot on the flop, it's probably okay if you are mostly sure that you'll be able to extract AT LEAST the additional $1.10 in subsequent streets. This becomes a bigger issue on the turn, 'cause you only got one more street to get your implied value in. Reads here are important.

    Pay attention to the board (is it paired - could f-k your flush to a boat - is it flushed - could f-k your straight - is straight and flushed - could f-k your set... etc.), stack sizes (drawing hands pretty much always want deep stacks), and what you're drawing to (disguised straights are the bomb for extracting value... flush draws, not so much, as the board is pretty f-kin transparent...)
  4. #4
    Hey sar,
    I knew someone could explain it better than me pretty good. looks like your goal is almost complete as well. Keep it up
    Don
  5. #5
    Rule of 2 and 4. Take your outs (say, OESD).

    Multiply by 2 to get % chance of improving on one street (8 * 2 = 16%).

    Multiply by 4 to get % chance of improving on two streets (8 * 4 = 32%).

    Works for any hand/draw.

    What Sarbox said about implied odds is vital. You can't count on getting more money in after you hit, but it often happens. Plus, we stack opponents sometimes, too, especially with well-disguised draws.
  6. #6
    Implied odds are a huge concept to grasp here. If your drawing to a nut flush and say they bet half the pot, alot of times i will still make the call on the chance of stacking them. If they are making big bets here it is alot more likely they will keep betting into you if you make your hand. Opposed to a bet that gives you odds, like a quarter of the pot, make the villian alot less pot stuck and more likely to fold if there is obvious made hands like flushes on the board.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by eternal
    If they are making big bets here it is alot more likely they will keep betting into you if you make your hand. Opposed to a bet that gives you odds, like a quarter of the pot, make the villian alot less pot stuck and more likely to fold if there is obvious made hands like flushes on the board.
    This is true, and important, but if they're making big bets, each street is that much more expensive, and the eventual payoff (rest of stack) is that much smaller. So be careful chasing here, imo.

    A good situation is betting draws into a station who will call smallish flop bets and/or let you pick up a free card on the turn. If they can't let it go or hit a 2nd best hand, you can also pick up a stack. Another great situation for implied odds is a player with a strong hand that can't help slow-playing it and gives you great odds to hit your monster.

    Implied odds are about reads, and about estimating accurately how much you might win if you hit.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Robb
    Rule of 2 and 4. Take your outs (say, OESD).

    Multiply by 2 to get % chance of improving on one street (8 * 2 = 16%).

    Multiply by 4 to get % chance of improving on two streets (8 * 4 = 32%).

    Works for any hand/draw.
    Yes, these percentages are easy to figure out, but how do you translate them into correct decisions based on pot odds? If I have a 36% chance to hit a flush with 2 streets to come and facing a 2x pot-size bet from villian, how do I use the 36% figure?

    OK - One way to do this would be to use the odds-chart that I found recently. It says that I actually have a 35% chance for the flush, which translates to 1.86:1. So I would need pot odds of 1.86:1 or greater (ex. 2.3:1) to call the turn. If I miss the flush on the turn, the odds change and the chart says that I need 4.11:1 pot odds to call a bet on the river. Correct?

    EDIT: I think I said this wrong. AFAIK, it should read 'The chart says that I have a 35% chance for the flush, which translates to 1.86:1 Hand Odds. So I would need pot odds of 1.86:1 or less (ex. 1.5:1) to call the turn. In simpler terms, as stated below, Hand odds should be greater than Pot odds to justify a call. Also, implied odds and villian reads, etc. should be a factor.

    I use Poker Office, which displays the pot odds on the table, so I should be ok using that and the odds chart. I can repost the chart if needed. Robb may have been the original source of the chart.
  9. #9
    Hi guys, all excellent stuff keep it coming please its reallt helping.

    playtowin, I just checked out pokeroffice, i love the way it aoutcalcs outs and odds in realt time, should i be getting this over PT#?
  10. #10
    Lemme try this...
    Turn/River--> Outs X 4=odds %
    River-----------> Outs X 2=odds %

    Lets say I have 8 outs with Turn and River(so use times 4) left and I'm betting $5 into $20

    Hand Odds--> 8 outs times 4 = 32%
    Pot Odds------> $5/$20 = 25%

    Hand Odds are greater than Pot odds so Bet?
    "Just cause I'm from the South don't mean I ain't got no book learnin'"

    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    ...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
  11. #11
    sarbox68's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sasquach991
    Hand Odds are greater than Pot odds so Bet?
    ... if you meant "bet" instead of "call" then the response is "maybe"....

    Pot odds work better as a primary decision point behind whether to call a bet (along with other stuff of course...). Betting/raising has more to do with plan for the hand, reads, ranges, your line, image, stack sizes yadda yadda than pot odds. For example... a continuation bet (and it's sizing) has really nothing to do with pot odds, as you may bet 3/4 pot with only 2 overcards, or you may double barrel w/ an OESD against a weak tight vil 'cause of fold equity - 'cause it's not just about what you actually have as much as it is about what they will think you have.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Marbleboy
    I just checked out pokeroffice, i love the way it aoutcalcs outs and odds in realt time, should i be getting this over PT#?
    Marbleboy, I don't know what to tell you. On FTR, everyone seems to use PT or Holdem' Manager, and I haven't used either. I think PT3 may have more stats available (like Folds to C-bet,etc.) which could be helpful. Plus, if you want to get help with PT3, this is the place.

    However, I do like Poker Office and I'm still learning things about it. It works well and it has a good hand replayer. I haven't checked out the latest version to see how it compares to PT3.
  13. #13
    I play top 3 flush draws alittle different. I have found that if you take control of the pot on these draws you can get paid off alittle easier. What I mean is if I decided to draw to a flush draw off the flop I will come out betting about 1/4 pot What i have found is that at the level i play .05 people will set me on top pair. I will usually get a top pair guy to call the bet and if/ when i make my hand he usually does not worry about the flush becouse he has sat me on top pair and trying to prevent the flush to come. So if I make my hand on the turn and I am going against an aggressive player i will usually at that point let him take control of the hand and I will check it to him. If he bets i will call and shove on the river depending on his or mine STP. If he is a calling station i will try and put a big enough bet in on him on the turn to make the shove on the river callable. So I guesse for me the bottom line is this. If i can't get atleast over half his stack in the middle I only draw with cheap draws. If the answer is yes I can get most of his MONIES in the middle than I will go for it. Just another type of playing style that has worked for me. But I have only played .05 and below since i have been doing this.'

    Thanks
    Don
  14. #14
    Here's a hand example. As Sarbox indicated, my flop cbet (on smallish side for me) is nearly automatic since board is uncoordinated.

    On the turn, pots odds come into play. First, I'm trying to "price myself in" with my smallish turn bet of half the pot, hoping for a call. A call would mean I've just received 3 to 1 pot odds on my bet. The min-raise doesn't change much, except to tell me he's got something and might pay me off if I hit. I've gotta call $2.50 w/ ~$6.50 in the pot, better than 2.5 to 1.

    Both the bet and the call make sense because of implied odds. Even though I'm only estimating about 20% chance of making the best hand and would thus need 4 to 1 odds, getting 2.5 to 1 now is fine. I can get the rest in on the river when (if) I hit. Or that's the plan.

    So...you need to understand pot odds - the immediate betting price, but you also have to estimate how much of what's behind will go in.

    I didn't really expect the shove all-in river bet. There, I have to think I'm good about 35% of the time to call. The river's just a straight up odds vs. hand strength estimate. I gotta call $22 into a pot of just less than $60. If I think he's got a worse hand than mine even 35% of the time, I gotta call. By the way, the villain was Laggy, but I didn't have much of a read.

    $0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
    4 players
    Converted at weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    Hero ($28.99)
    BTN ($32.37)
    SB ($2.51)
    BB ($49.72)

    Pre-flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is CO
    Hero raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

    Flop: ($2.05, 2 players)
    Hero bets $1.15, BTN calls $1.15

    Turn: ($4.35, 2 players)
    Hero bets $2.25, BTN raises to $4.85, Hero calls $2.60

    River: ($14.05, 2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN goes all-in $25.52, Hero ???

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