Is my range about right?

Villain is 21/13, fold to 3bet 0(3), Agg 2.8 over about 30 hands at this stage. This is the first big pot I had seen him in and the first time I'd seen this AI re-raise on the flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($11.12)
MP1 ($15.56)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($4)
CO ($18.49)
Button ($2)
SB ($10.98)
Hero (BB) ($17.24)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, MP1 bets $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, MP1 calls $1

Flop: ($3.05) 5, J, A (2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, MP1 raises to $14.06 (All-In)Hero??

Here's what I put in pokerstove and it seems like a clear fold since I need 38% to call but I don't know if I'm putting him on too tight a range.

Board: Ad Jd 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.152% 19.04% 06.11% 2451 786.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 74.848% 68.74% 06.11% 8847 786.00 { KcKd, KdKs, JJ, 55, KdQd, AcKd, AsKd, AcQd, AsQd }

i doubt he has 55 or KQ. wierd he came out with a 5x open.
Why not AA?

Originally Posted by nonofyobiz

i doubt he has 55 or KQ. wierd he came out with a 5x open.
Why not AA?

I discounted AA because I figured he would most likely have 4 bet it pre. Adding AA brings my equity down to 23%.

I doubted 55 and KQdd as well but figured they were possibilities given 21/13 and 0% fold to 3 bet. Taking both of them out brings my equity to 31% which is still a fold.

Frankly I can't think of any range that would give me 38% equity so I guess it doesn't really matter but I'd like to know if my range reading abilities are improving.

Pretty easy fold, he never has a pure bluff so at worst he has a naked Kd/Qd but usually he'll have a pair or straight draw to go with it. The rest of the time you are dead or getting freerolled.

Fold is definitely the right move. I think your range is ok if you can make the discounts that Biz suggested. With such a short history with this guy it's impossible to tell, but I've seen idiots make this same play with KK or QQ at this level thinking they're making a good bluff.

dont lead wtf

Originally Posted by bikes

dont lead wtf

I assume don't lead because it leaves me open to the raise which leaves me no real choice but to fold right?

ETA: And the fact my hand has show down value, specially if the turn and river blank, and so I'd want to be trying to get to a cheap showdown.

If he have AA, then I dont think he would 4bet pre, not everytime. Also on the flop, he can't have a flush, so if you check, he might be scared of flush or decide to slow play it. Give you a chance to catch that Q.

For the record Villain showed and that is what got me thinking about my range.

With no history I don't see how I could have factored in a hand like that to his range, which is almost a pure bluff on this board, so I'm happy with the range I assigned and with my fold. With hindsight I obviously should have checked and evaluated ftr bets. I made a note for future play.