Middle set on river, two villains, poss straight/wet board ($5NL micros)

[rowhousepd]

I have pocket J's in EP, I 3bet preflop, check the flop (probably unwisely), bet the turn, and get put in an awkward situation when I hit a set on the river vs. 2 villains but possible straights appear. The only reads are on the UTG: 21/13/2.3 and I had not seen him play draws aggressively. Any thoughts?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.04)
BB ($3.52)
UTG ($8.61)
Hero ($5.30)
UTG+2 ($7.89)
MP1 ($5)
CO ($15.16)
BTN ($3.36)

Dealt to Hero J J

UTG raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.55, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.55, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.40

FLOP ($1.72) T Q 8

UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

TURN ($1.72) T Q 8 2

UTG checks, Hero bets $1.30, BTN calls $1.30, UTG calls $1.30

RIVER ($5.62) T Q 8 2 J

UTG bets $2.15
Hero...?

[couriermike]

I'd call. I don't think he has a 9 here 75% of the time or more.

[Viscaro]

It's a tough spot. I think either player could have AK (AKs in spades esp) here given the action and I suspect utg could have 99 in his range, but other 9x hands are unlikely. As well as this, utg has bet into 2 players which shows alot of strength, and it seems unlikely worse hands would bet here.
On the other hand, you are given great pot odds and its conceivable he is spazz bluffing the scare scard/betting tt/88 for value (less likely than bluff i think)
Overall in this spot I'd trust my stats/reads as to what to do but if I don't have them I'm leaning toward a call.

[rowhousepd]

FYI, I checked the flop bc there were overcards and it was multiway on a drawy board. I was mostly afraid of the UTG who easily could have had a Q (poss AQ or KQ, or maybe KK). But when everyone checked on the F and then UTG checked again on the turn, I had to put in a good sized bet for value and to thin the herd. I wasn't worried about OESD's as I didn't think he'd PFR & call a 3bet w/ like KJ or J9, so I thought I was still ahead even on the turn since flush draws were now my biggest concern.

Am I ok in this line of thinking?

[Viscaro]

FYI, I checked the flop bc there were overcards and it was multiway on a drawy board. I was mostly afraid of the UTG who easily could have had a Q (poss AQ or KQ, or maybe KK). But when everyone checked on the F and then UTG checked again on the turn, I had to put in a good sized bet for value and to thin the herd. I wasn't worried about OESD's as I didn't think he'd PFR & call a 3bet w/ like KJ or J9, so I thought I was still ahead even on the turn since flush draws were now my biggest concern.

Am I ok in this line of thinking?

Even if he had an OESD your still ahead by a good bit. You're probably right about them rarely having it pre. The main reasons to bet here are protection from A/K rivers and value betting vs draws and Tx. I think your bet sizing is perfect.

[rowhousepd]

Also, I didn't think UTG had QQ, flopped a set, and then was prepared to check to the river. Ditto w/ a set of tens. And probably ditto w/ an AA or KK overpair. These plus AKs/o are definitely w/in their range -- suited was a possibility but definitely not off-suit as that would have just been an inside straight draw w/ overcards. But still I think a 75% pot bet on the turn would make it a mistake to call w/ anything that was only drawing ... I think.

Does that sound reasonable?

You need to put them on ranges and figure out your equity. If I'm not mistaken you only need like 28% equity to make this a call I think since you're being asked to call $2.15 in order to win $7.77 (.2767)

Uggg. (Ok, here's my newbie-ness showing.) How does this work exactly? I put this through PokerStove vs. 2 villains each a ~6% range. (That might be conservative, but it's probably not waaay off.) My equity is almost exactly 25%. Still a bit confused though.

3bet pre is interesting. Reasoning?
reads on button are important, absent reads and bet-fold flop all day, about $0.75 should get it done.

Would you have just called PFR from UTG w/ JJ? Didn't have any great reads on them except their stats -- both were pretty sane.

[HarleyGuy13]

You need to put them on ranges and figure out your equity. If I'm not mistaken you only need like 28% equity to make this a call I think since you're being asked to call $2.15 in order to win $7.77 (.2767)

[daven]

3bet pre is interesting. Reasoning?
reads on button are important, absent reads and bet-fold flop all day, about $0.75 should get it done.

[Icanhastreebet]

fold, flat pre.

[rowhousepd]

fold, flat pre.

I've been looking at a bunch of players' 3bet stats in 5NL micros and it looks like while calling a 3bet cold isn't something people do very often (probably something like ~5%), calling a 3bet after they put in the preflop raise is a lot higher. I don't know if HEM has a specific stat for that, but my hunch is that people will tend to call a 3bet because they think since the pot is bigger, their strong hand has more value. Does anyone have a take on this?

[couriermike]

I've been looking at a bunch of players' 3bet stats in 5NL micros and it looks like while calling a 3bet cold isn't something people do very often (probably something like ~5%), calling a 3bet after they put in the preflop raise is a lot higher. I don't know if HEM has a specific stat for that, but my hunch is that people will tend to call a 3bet because they think since the pot is bigger, their strong hand has more value. Does anyone have a take on this?

Some people probably do call lighter after their pfr is 3-bet because of preflop pot odds, but that's a mistake since their implied odds have been cut dramatically once the price of poker goes up.

I agree with treebet now about folding. The river gives us a set but it also completes alot of draws and you're not closing the action.

[rowhousepd]

Some people probably do call lighter after their pfr is 3-bet because of preflop pot odds, but that's a mistake since their implied odds have been cut dramatically once the price of poker goes up.

Follow up: Just did a little research (my database + pokertableratings.com.) At the micros, the average PRF is roughly ~10%. In HEM (& PT too, I believe) the vs. 3bet Call % refers to calling a 3bet after you already put in a PFR. The average for that is ~30% (which really is about the top 3% of a player's range).

So in the example above, that's about ~4-5%; he was probably hold TT+, AQs+, AKo ... and not surprisingly, that's spot on for this hand.