I've seen some threads in the BC lately that have me concerned. Someone will post a HH with villain's stats something like 50/30 over 30 hands but will discount that - could be just a TAGG on heater.

Not very likely. Using the binomial theorem, we can calculate the probability that a TAGG with 25/15 stats raises 30% of the time (or more) over 30 hands: about 2.75%. Over 50 hands, there's about 0.5% chance an actual 25/15 guy will raise 15 times.

My point is that when you see a couple dozen hands from a guy who's seein' the flop half the time, and raising a good bit, you don't need 1k HH's to assume he's pretty loose. It's time to mix up with him a bit before he donates his stack to someone else.

If anyone's interested in the math, I'll post something more detailed tomorrow.