Line Check pls (3bet pot, flop action)

Opponent has been at table less than 20 hands and seems taggish. In that time I have once 3bet (a different opponent with some history) light with J9s and stacked off with a flush vs fh.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($10.25)
Hero (SB) ($14.33)
BB ($10.15)
UTG ($14.28)
MP ($19.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
UTG bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises $1.35, 1 fold, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.90) 4, 2, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.38, UTG raises $3, Hero calls $1.62

Turn: ($8.90) K (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($8.90) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, 1 fold

Total pot: $8.90

After the hand the opponent talked to me saying:
1) I was lucky to hit the K on the turn (he put me on AK)
2) When I told him the K didn't hit me he said that I was stupid to play QQ/JJ on the flop that way.
3) He clarified and said that I was stupid not to 3bet all-in on the flop with QQ/JJ (and that he had put me on QQ/JJ/AK)

When I was playing the flop I thought if I 3bet I'd only be called by hands that beat me - that any JJ/TT/AK/AQ type hands would fold.

I would expect him to mainly call flop with AA-QQ type hands and mainly be raising with AK/AQ/JJ/TT type hands. When the turn came I decided I was probably reluctantly committed. As in, if he bet into me I'd go reluctantly all-in, but that I would be more profitable on average if the pot was kept smaller.

When he checked the turn I did worry fleetingly that he could have taken my check to say I don't have a K and for his check to be the natural trappy play with a K to make sure I got all-in on the river. I thought he might still call JJ/TT type hands on the river but maybe check/calling would be better EV?

Anyway, high probability this hand was poorly played by me. I'll take comments and look at it in more detail when I get off the tables.

i love table professors.

Originally Posted by littleogre

i love table professors.

Especially the ones that want to teach you how not to take their money.

well preflop unless his utg raising range is uber tight your raise is fine. Set hunting is fine also but i personally don't like to set hunt with a premium pair.

When I was playing the flop I thought if I 3bet I'd only be called by hands that beat me... I would expect him to mainly call flop with AA-QQ type hands and mainly be raising with AK/AQ/JJ/TT type hands.

I'd just like to point out that if you assume this is true, it's still possible that 3-betting the flop is the right play. The idea is that the pot is big and you're making a mistake by letting him draw to a free card, and this mistake can be a larger mistake than 3-betting into a range that only calls you when you are beaten. In a more general context, the notion that "value betting when you are only called by better is not as good as calling/checking" is not strictly true. Consult your hymnal (a.k.a. Theory of Poker) for more information.

P.S. If you don't have a hymnal I can assist you if you e-mail me at jesseeddleman gmail.com. I'll need you to e-mail me instead of message me on the forums here as per forum rule #9.

why bet so small on flop? dry board, but air folds to a 1/2 pot bet anyway and 99+ stacks off with weaker hands like 77 potentially calling down considering the table knows you 3b J9s before.

turn, i like c/c too. he probably bets again with TT or JJ though gaybets it cuz an over card came. if he pots it might be a fold because i dont expect anything but sets to lead turn strongly.

river, i like it. JJ-TT find a call 99 might too but theyd probably all check behind or bet smaller than you did on the river.

Btw, the flop bet was 1/2 pot - rake had been deducted.

Thanks for the comments. I'll spend some more time on this situation and run some EV calculations to figure out what the situation is regarding getting the money in on the flop. Incidentally I think shoving would be a bit of an overbet and I'm not sure that would be appropriate.

I'll also check ToP and see if I can find a section that applies.

Playing around with StoxEV a bit.
Always assuming 25% weight on AA/KK because they would likely have 4bet pre. (Also 25% weight on KQs, AK due to action not fitting, 50% weight on AQ)

Scenario 1: Flop 3bet all-in. Only called by better. Immensely profitable because not many hand combos beat me - lots fold.
EV 5.12 of flop decision

Scenario 2:
Called flop.
Me: Bet turn $4 if QQ is still an overpair - ends up all-in. Check if not
V: Bet $4 if any pair QQ+ (including if Ax, Kx hit A or K on turn) - ends up all-in. Check if not.
Me (river, if checked): Bet $5
V: Raise all-in if any pair QQ+ (like Ax,Kx hitting A or K on river). Me calling.
EV: 6.76 of turn decision

Numbers not comparable because I haven't paid for StoxEV and can't do a whole tree in one go - I have to do either a flop or a turn decision. Will try to redo in Pokerazor where the trial version doesn't have that restriction and see the numbers there.

Ok, more useful info. Pokerazor tells me that shoving the flop is better EV than calling, as long as I remain unconditionally committed (as in I'll stack off if my opponent puts me all in. Now I'll investigate what happens if I am conditionally committed.

(Btw, used a feature of Pokerazor where the opponent only puts money in on certain decision points if he beats my exact hand, so not exactly favouring more decisions)

Even when I am conditionally committed shoving the flop is better EV. But I still have an opponent who plays almost perfectly against me (not quite, as I let him stack off on the river if I improve to a set)

Going to play a bit more with conditions to try to see how it works if he instead thinks I have JJ and plays optimally against that.

ship it in on the flop, we only lose to slowplayed KK+ and lolwat sets
if he raises you with JJ/TT he's probably calling it off on the flop because otherwise if he didn't think his hand was good enough to felt he would have flat called your flop bet