KK hands @ 10nl

Villain is very nitty. 11/5 calls raises 5% of the time. 1% 3 bet.

I want to fold this flop. Raising is out of the question he wont stack of with anything but sets.

His range is exclusively JJ,QQ,55,44,TT and I think the JJ and QQ are very unlikely. I want to say he is only donking sets into 3 opponents.

If I include QQ and JJ, snap call. If I don't snap fold.

Though I have 300 hands, very few go to show down due to tightness.

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG MatadorKan ($10.15)
UTG+1 luobin005 ($10)
MP Hero ($11.18)
CO timohinpoker ($10.90)
BTN navydude ($7.69)
SB Nicover4 ($10)
BB spencejo12 ($8.41)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 7 players) Hero is MP
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, navydude calls $0.40, 1 fold, spencejo12 calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25, 3 players)
spencejo12 bets $1, $1 to Hero ($10.78)?

Nice fold.

I'm just trying to learn about ranges so I have some questions on this. I apologize if my points are all wrong.
5% of hands includes TT so would he not have raised preflop? On the other hand, since he is in the BB and facing a raise and call before him that would tighten the range a fair bit.
The 11% of hands is really about 77+ and again, because of his position is 44 or 55 likely?
On the other hand the flop didn't hit any broadway cards so maybe he really is holding JJ or QQ and thinks that he has top pair and he didn't raise preflop because of position?

Why can't he have a couple combos of NFDs and shit? just wondering if u've seen him play draws passively etc

No I do not have specific reads Ican, but I tend to find that 11/5 with tiny 3b 1% are passive. They play there hands very face up, though he has AQdd and AKdd in his range. I could be wrong but I rarely(never?) see them bet out there.

In other words he has zero semi bluffs, the only question does he think JJ and QQ are good enough to bet.

Originally Posted by Tasha

I'm just trying to learn about ranges so I have some questions on this. I apologize if my points are all wrong.
5% of hands includes TT so would he not have raised preflop? On the other hand, since he is in the BB and facing a raise and call before him that would tighten the range a fair bit.
The 11% of hands is really about 77+ and again, because of his position is 44 or 55 likely?
On the other hand the flop didn't hit any broadway cards so maybe he really is holding JJ or QQ and thinks that he has top pair and he didn't raise preflop because of position?

He would raise TT pre but he was in BB facing a bet so therefore if he raises that would be considered a 3 bet. Also his open limp range is different than call a raise range.

His calling range is QQ-55,AKs,AKo (maybe AQs or maybe 22-55)


Your last question is most relevant and one if I had a better understand the hand would play itself.

Originally Posted by Tasha

11% of hands is really about 77+ and again, because of his position is 44 or 55 likely?

Because the villain is last to act preflop with two others in the pot i think we can easily include 22+ in his range.

Originally Posted by Tasha

11/5 with tiny 3b 1% are passive. They play there hands very face up, though he has AQdd and AKdd in his range. I could be wrong but I rarely(never?) see them bet out there.

You have seen +100 hands against villain so i would look at his AF to better weight how passive he is post flop. If he is >=2 i wouldn't fold here.

With a range of TT+, AhKh, AhQh you have 46% equity, enough to call.

An AF around 1 and i think you made a good fold.

It was one those in game moments where, it was meh call and I knew it. Lucky for me turn was an A he cbets again. i snap fold.

Originally Posted by !Luck

It was one those in game moments where, it was meh call and I knew it. Lucky for me turn was an A he cbets again. i snap fold.

Grats btw on your progression! It was only a couple of months ago you were playing 2NL. Keep it up bro!

Originally Posted by !Luck

It was one those in game moments where, it was meh call and I knew it. Lucky for me turn was an A he cbets again. i snap fold.

Even though you gave him 3 pocket pairs that beat you and 2 that you beat, theres 12 combos of two you beat and only 9 combos of the three that beat you. So you're actually over 50% equity here. one more reason to justify why you're never folding here.

He may stop betting if a heart falls on the turn so you may end up getting a cheap showdown. There's a tiny chance you're making a bigger set and stacking him, at least when he doesn't have JJ, QQ anyways.

nh sir.

lol just played a hand that reminded me of this.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($14.52)
Hero (Button) ($10.10)
SB ($26.60)
BB ($19.30)
UTG ($21.10)
MP ($13.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
3 folds, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) 6, 6, Q (2 players)
SB bets $0.70, Hero folds

Total pot: $0.70 | Rake: $0.04


his stats are 26/0/0.6 over 100 hands, 11% aggression frequency on flop, obviously no cbet stat.. lol

his range here is like quads or queens full.

Because the villain is last to act preflop with two others in the pot i think we can easily include 22+ in his range.

Is this because he might be set mining after seeing so much go into the pot preflop?

Even though you gave him 3 pocket pairs that beat you and 2 that you beat, theres 12 combos of two you beat and only 9 combos of the three that beat you. So you're actually over 50% equity here. one more reason to justify why you're never folding here.

This is one of those things I am still very unsure about and probably the subject for another thread. But anyway, can we really use combos as a way to estimate equity? Or is it not so much the equity we are getting but rather the chances that our equity is greater than his?

Tasha,

Yes we can use combos. Also remember if villain ever shows up with something weird like T5o then next time we adjust our analysis.

Originally Posted by !Luck

Tasha,

Yes we can use combos.

I would mitigate this. In this case, you can easily use combos because the equity of his winning combos on this flop is about 90% and the equity of your winning combos is also about 90%. So just counting winning and loosing combos does it to estimate whether you equity is > 50%.

This is not always the case though. To take a simple example for Tasha, let's imagine opp could have only one of three hands: 5c5s, which is a 89% favorite, or 8h7h (45% favorite) or 9h8h (37% favorite). So even though you beat 2 of his 3 possible combos, you are not a favorite: (0.89+0.45+0.37)/3=0.57=57% equity for opp's range.

edit (and hijack?): this example just made me think of something. Opp is indeed a favorite in an all in situation when the hand goes to showdown, but with this range, he is not a favorite to win on the next card. So should you bet to make him pay for his draws, and if he just calls and you think his range is still the same, bet again on a turn that does not complete any of his draws? Or does the rule "if your showdown equity is less than 50%, don't bet" still apply? Spoon, over, to you...

Okay, things are beginning to fall into place now.
So the stronger each combo is the better an indication of your overall equity it is. Which is sort of obvious now that I think about it.
Thanks guys, this has really helped put some things into perspective. (I think).

Originally Posted by tyrn

lol just played a hand that reminded me of this.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($14.52)
Hero (Button) ($10.10)
SB ($26.60)
BB ($19.30)
UTG ($21.10)
MP ($13.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
3 folds, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) 6, 6, Q (2 players)
SB bets $0.70, Hero folds

Total pot: $0.70 | Rake: $0.04


his stats are 26/0/0.6 over 100 hands, 11% aggression frequency on flop, obviously no cbet stat.. lol

his range here is like quads or queens full.

Really? Why on earth would quads or full house pot the flop? I'd be more inclined to put him on a six, and fold.