I feel like such a station here.

Villain is 26/23/inf 41% ATS, 100% c-bet over 80 hands. I've not really been involved with him post flop yet. This is the first time I've played a pot with him without having the lead preflop. I think he probably bets flop and turn with all his top pair+ and air hands. River bet just seems like he has a king like always and I'm not ever good. Retarded aggro players at 25NL will sometimes show up with a bluff here , but he seems at least semi competent from stats if not a little thoughtlessly aggro. Does anyone like folding river depsite the awesome pot odds? His bet size just seems so unbluffy. I kind of feel like his range is weighted heavily towards kings and maybe sometimes air since I'd expect him bet more with a flush, boat or AA.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($29.80)
SB ($26.80)
Hero (BB) ($25.40)
UTG ($35.75)
MP ($26.10)
CO ($8.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) K, 6, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.10) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($8.60) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3, Hero calls $3

Total pot: $14.60

if turn is a bluff, then it's a sweet application of ISF theorem (you're not usually going to flat KK, AK or 33 pre, and he has every nut hand there is in his range). but realistically, i don't think this is a double barrelling spot at 25nl, so i'd fold.

river sucks, because this is a terrible spot for villain to post oak (since all the draws completed, so you don't often have air), so like you said, if he's competent, this isn't a bluff either. you feel liek hangin' yourself for folding here given the pot odds, but i just can't imagine how often you're ahead.

but def fold turn

ps: i added this hand to the ISF theorem thread, except i made villain the hero

the sick part is you're never good on the river but you almost have to call because retardation is often the reasoning for a small bet
and if you're folding turn I don't mind folding flop

Just look him up here and be sure to take a note. You're getting decent pot odds and your stationyness in the hand will add to meta a bit and probably keep him playing really straightforward vs you for the rest of the session (i.e. his bluffing frequency is going to be no where near optimal), and thus making a decision that's slightly -ev now in a vacuum will potentially allow you to extract more value to make up for it later. So then use the image the showdown will give you to your advantage.

Does that make sense?

Edit: like, the decision is definately close (I guess fuck I duno), and we're dealing with some imperfect information here, so in other words I'm basically saying 'lolpotoddscall'.

I would never call turn and fold river against someone who likes betting. I dont mind this tbh, although its better with a read that he's the type to just keep betting.

why not jam river, he never has a callable hand w/ his bet sizing and we can obviously rep some cool hands like slowplayed sets and bd flooshes.

I considered that, but it relies on finding someone at 25nl who can bet 3 streets for value then find his fold button. He does look a lot like a weak/medium K but depends how often we think he'll fold.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

I considered that, but it relies on finding someone at 25nl who can bet 3 streets for value then find his fold button. He does look a lot like a weak/medium K but depends how often we think he'll fold.

Yeah this. I really wnated to jam river, but withou better reads that he's competent (bet sizing sort of suggests otherwise I feel) I just feel like I own myself too often this being 25NL.

M2M, yeah I agree we have a good bonus of villain playing his range pretty strightforward in future.

I don't see the point in calling the flop if I'm going to fold the turn vs this guy because he has been constantly aggro and I do expect a turn bet with his air a good amount of the time.

One more question. In irc a couple of people recomended 3-betting preflop. I don't really see the merit of this when we're doing well vs his opening range and he doesn't really call with worse often at all. Thoughts on that?

3b vs. CO/BU with the intention of shipping it in over a 4b for value when you've been reg warring, but vs. MP I doubt you have a huge 3b/4b dynamic because you're so far apart on the table
also vs. people who you think call too many 3bs just 3b for value

but he calls with worse a lot, most people flat 66-99 to a 3b or with SCs like 78s