How do you bet the river into a missed draw?

Say you see a flop against one opponent, and after the flop you're about 75% sure they're on a flush draw or OESD. (I don't even know if it's possible to be more sure than that without a tell in a live game, so let's say you're about as sure as you ever are online.) You bet the flop and turn, reasonable amounts; let's say half the pot on both - and both are called. The river is a blank card and you are first to act. Do you bet or check here?

Argument for betting: it's a defensive play in case you're wrong about their hand. You might get a cheap showdown, but if they raise big it's very likely they were slowplaying something and not drawing as suspected. The downside is that they almost always fold to this if you're right about their hand. It really won't make you any money.

Argument for checking: it's a trap to lure them into bluffing with a hand that can't win. However, you will occasionally end up calling a big bet here and finding out they slowplayed you. No matter what they bet on the river, you pretty much have to call because you set the hand up that way. That's potentially dangerous.

I suspect that option 2 is more profitable but also swingier... what do you think?

I will modestly bet into them about half pot, because even though you feel they're drawing, technically your information is still incomplete. If you check and they bet strong, now you have a tough decision to make. I refuse to make my living off broken draws bluffing me. If you bet into them and they raise you, then you know it's trouble.

The point is, the only money you can expect to make is from a bluff on their end. You bet because if you have a marginal hand, you get info back, and if you have a strong hand, a worse one might smooth call.

in my opinion you want to bet the river like you have the nuts for two reasons.
1-> you'll get info that will save you money if he reraises.
2-> The image that you will give off to other players when you just check on the river and probably fold to the bluff that the other player puts out. That just shows to the other players that you are scared of taking your hand to the end and gives them the opertunity to try the "smoothcalling to the river" play on you once again.

So in other words, take control of the money that you want to loose(if he is slowplaying you with a monster) in the pot by betting and that way if you fold to his reraise on the river you won't look as weak as if you checked it.
later

Ya, I think it's obvious there are so many more reasons to bet into a broken draw than to check through.

Yes, always bet against a busted draw. Not alot, but enough so that they will either fold their busted draw or raise their slowplayed hand. My typical play, from position:

2-3x PFR (unless its already been raised)
4-5x Continuation
6-7x Turn
3-5x River

Out of position:

2-3x PFR
4-5x Continuation
0-3x Draw Detection on Turn
3-5x River

You'll notice that out of position, I am forced to slow down on the turn bet. It's really the best way I know of figuring out they are on the draw.

Originally Posted by DimitriT

You'll notice that out of position, I am forced to slow down on the turn bet. It's really the best way I know of figuring out they are on the draw.

I think you might be leaving yourself open for large bets you can't call. Against a quality player such as yourself I might explode on a couple pots after you check the turn giving you a very tough decision if I have position on you. That's because I know you might fold, because you're a good player. I prefer to bet exactly what I did on the flop. If they call then you re-evaluate where you stand after the river drops. Betting nothing to very little has the effect of giving a cheap card to a draw and allowing your opponent to represent, especially when an over drops the turn.

This is the way I think of it....

If you feel your hand is best when it is not very strong (TPGK, or two small pair) after the flop, a good player with position on you is going to raise a good hand for information on the flop. They are going to raise a set on the turn when a board starts coordinating most days (If you don't bet and get raised, how will you know this?). The only thing they will smooth call a flop with is a very powerful hand or a draw. We all know monsters after the flop are somewhat rare. The only conclusion you can make against a good player who isn't tight passive is that they are usually DRAWING when they just call. If they have a great hand they will raise most of the time when you bet the turn. That's because turns will scare vulnerability. But you HAVE to bet well to figure it out. Else you're getting bet into and not knowing whether they have a hand, or just percieve you to be weak.

So what that leaves is playing against a sub par or bad player. That's easy. They could have anything when they call. If your hand is good enough, it's going to have +EV against this type of player to bet the turn like the flop because often enough this player is calling you with a worse hand anyway. Take your beats, and win the majority.

Ron, good points regarding the turn bet. Against an aggressive plr or lack of a read a bet is definitely necessary or you risk getting hit with a large bet yourself (its always harder to raise than to bet). I like the repeat of the flop bet.