How do I improve this spot? (unable to price out a draw)

SB ($9.71)
BB ($10.32)
UTG ($33.23)
Hero (MP) ($31.95)
CO ($76.11)
Button ($25.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K
UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.35) 5, 6, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.57, UTG raises to $11.50, Hero raises to $29.45 (All-In), UTG calls $17.95

Turn: ($64.25) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($64.25) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $64.25 | Rake: $2

Results:
UTG had 10, A (flush, Ace high).
Hero mucked K, K (straight, six high).
Outcome: UTG won $62.25

Villain is 23/11 and folds 50% or so to 3bets.

I suspect he is completely unaware of position, hence his UTG range to open is basically the same 11% or so of hands he'll open from anywhere, and if he folds half that range to 3bets he is probably calling 3bets with something like {AK, AQ, KQs, TT+}

His checkraising range at the flop is {QQ+} for 6 combos we crush, 6 we split with mostly and 6 that are crushing us. The stove tells us we have 51% equity against {QQ+} on this flop. Perhaps not a great spot, but if he'll checkraise with JJ too then it's 63% and if he's loose enough to do it against the preflop 3better with TT then we have 70% equity.

What he actually did was far looser, and more aggro than I'd give him credit for, but it was basically just spewy - he checkraised the nut flush draw. Why? Who knows. I doubt he figured I'd fold what I had and was repping.

I would never put ATs in his 3bet calling range, but obviously I should have done, and obviously I have made a note on him so I will know in future that this is in his range if a similar spot were to come up.

Anyway, it does no good to try and reason out the actions of this kind of player, and perhaps I was the bigger fool since I did not expect, until I analysed this hand, for him to have such good equity against me.

With $20.42 in the pot and $19.23 effective behind, when we ship it in we give him 2:1 to call with his flush draw. More than enough, since he also has the ace, for 12 outs and 43% equity.

I guess there's not a lot I can do about that - effective stacks weren't big enough to price a draw out.

Should I have called the flop rather than shipping it in? I know mathematically that might be slightly superior, but once nearly half my stack is in the pot already, my decision is going to be difficult if he ships a club turn - I'd rather ship the flop even if I'd known his exact cards. Of course, there also is nothing wrong with getting it in with 56% equity.

Incidentally, although it doesn't particularly tie up with his fold-to-3bet stats, if we give him a range based on this hand of {AcXc, QQ+} for checkraising the flop, our equity is 51%.

Is there some way I could have played this better?

notsureifsrs.jpg

You got your chips in when you were both ahead and a favorite. This is why we play poker, right? What am I missing here?

You're not necessarily missing anything. I don't feel that pissed with it and the reason I've posted it is because I can't think of anything I could have done better, but that doesn't mean someone else won't be able to. I think it's an interesting hand, because it's not really a suckout as such - he has a fuckload of equity.

Perhaps, and of course we need to see a play like this from him first, we could 3bet him bigger to narrow his range, but I suspect he'd have called almost any size 3bet once he'd decided to call, as evidenced by my other thread here tonight about an oversized 3bet and a set of 3s.

If that's the case, then the right adaptation is instead to realise that if he's willing to open a hand, he's willing to stack off with it, so if we know his opening range reasonably accurately we could open shove the top half of it behind him, or at least open 3bet big enough to pot commit him, since he's likely to continue with anything he's opened no matter how big we raise.

Just like the set of 3s hand, if our donkey is calling with a wide range here, and is usually passive, perhaps when he wakes up on the flop we smell a set here and fold, but that's a tough fold, and of course if he might to raise a draw that's behind we can out-think ourselves.

I guess you've just got to know your moron.

i'm confused.

this hand is absurdly std from both sides

Originally Posted by bikes

i'm confused.

this hand is absurdly std from both sides

You'd open UTG then call a 3bet with suited ace-rag?

when you make a 2.5x3bet yes i would. i would probably flat your 3bet w/ any PP, Axs and any SC i opened that moment.

your 3bet should be at least 3$ , maybe more knowing he calls 3bets 50% of times

Bigger 3bet pre since you're 130BB deep, $3 or so is fine.

What he actually did was far looser, and more aggro than I'd give him credit for, but it was basically just spewy - he checkraised the nut flush draw. Why? Who knows. I doubt he figured I'd fold what I had and was repping.

It helps to be able to not get frustrated that people don't play the way you think they should. He'll play his way and you'll play yours.

Anyway you seem to be annoyed that you lost the hand, would you have posted it if you won what is essentially a flip?

Take a note on his play and move on.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Bigger 3bet pre since you're 130BB deep, $3 or so is fine.


It helps to be able to not get frustrated that people don't play the way you think they should. He'll play his way and you'll play yours.

Anyway you seem to be annoyed that you lost the hand, would you have posted it if you won what is essentially a flip?

Take a note on his play and move on.

Good reply, thanks. Puts some perspective on it. I agree, I probably wouldn't have found it particularly postworthy if I hadn't lost the hand.

I didn't expect to the flipping, and thought perhaps there was something I might have done differently and I guess a bigger 3bet is the only thing I might have changed.

I'm not sure 3betting $3 makes much difference, he still has decent implied odds to make the call (which of course you want), and if you 3bet bigger then there is more dead money for him to steal when you b/f AK, semi bluffing becomes even better for him. He's gonna be giving you like QQ+ AQs+ AK and maybe some random Axs >0% of the time, idk what your stats are but it sounds reasonable. So he has great equity against your QQ+ with fold equity against your whiffed Ax hands and plenty of dead money to steal.

Bikes nailed it, standard from both sides. Not really that noteworthy either, I guess you can note he r/c ATs utg 130bb+ deep, then c/r nfd and calls off stack, but you should probably assume a 23/11 is capable of taking such a line without notes.

3b more pre, nice hand, win flips

Ridic standard.

If you flat the flop, then you need to be confident enough in your read of his range to fold a turned club for pot.

his raise pre is redic std.

his call is good as you're deep and you made it small for some reason.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

...if you 3bet bigger then there is more dead money for him to steal when you b/f AK, semi bluffing becomes even better for him.

Is there any truth to this, or is this stupid ongbonga logic?