ok if i do a basic shove equation to get my ev of when he folds or calls and checks the river. ten a separate eq for when he raises and i fold then subtract the money l loose from folding from the money i win from him folding / me calling and winning will that work? Example lets say i just raised 5 into a 5 pot and have determined that this move wins 3 dollars from him folding/ calling and me winning. I've also determined that he will raise 20 percent of the time so i lose 1 buck from when he raises .20(5)=1
so my over all ev of bluffing is 2 bucks. This can never be exact though because it doesn't account for the times that i improve my hand and get his entire stack or when i improve and he gets my entire stack. I think the shove formula is likely good for deciding whether or not to bluff shove the turn or river. The more i think about it the more i think it becomes to complicated when money is left behind. Atleast for me it does. You would need a formula that thinks about all the following
pot size after vills bet
pot size after our raise
our raise size
vills call%
vills fold%
how often dos he check the river after calling a turn raise
how often does he shove the river after calling a turn raise
how often does he call a river shove from us .