Help with Equity

Hi all,

I asked this question in another thread - but it was a bit of a hijack on my part, and never got answered - so will start a new thread hoping a few people can advise...
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Quote:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.790% 31.42% 00.37% 103283904 1229808.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 68.210% 67.84% 00.37% 223018848 1229808.00 { QQ+ }

Above is worst case scenario for our AK pre flop - we could add AKs, AKo to villians range also - but lets go with QQ+ and 31% equity for our big slick.

Can someone help me here with translating the above into BB's...

In this pot hero 3-bet, and villian shoved. Therefore we assume pre-flop action went villian 4x, her0 12x, villian all in with 100BB

Therefore hero has 88BB to call to win 200BB.

This is where I need help to understand the threshold. 31% of 200 is 62BB - which is why we should fold instead of calling 88BB? (Assuming our read / range for villian / is correct)

Now if villian only had 50BB and hero had 38BB to call to win 100BB its closer but still a fold.

Is my logic and understanding of equity application correct here? If not - can someone correct me please??

Thanks!

Seems ok. One thing that you need to remember about AK is a lot of it's equity comes from FE when shoving. Calling usually leaves you far behind, as you see by your EV calc's you've done here. Most times your either flipping or chopping when calling if your against the lowest end of a 4 bet shover's range.

The only problem I see is with the math. I think you have the right idea, but if you calculate wrong you'll still make mistakes.

In your example, it looks like you both have 100bb.
He raises to 4xbb, you raised to 12xx, he pushed. At this point, to call, you are putting in 88bb to win 112bb (his 100 + the 12 you put in), not 200bb.

Of course I hope someone will tell me I'm an idiot if I'm wrong on that.

Thanks Hawk for the post - you are saying we need to divide 88/112 -(and presumably dividing that by 2 again) to get a position of 39%. As opposed to 88/200 which is 44%. Is that right?

If so - then I would like others (given Hawk's less than confident closing remark) to confirm whether it is 39% or 44% and whether we can judge the 39 or 44 number against our pokerstove derived pot equity - to give a judgement on call or not.

Please allow me to re-state the original question for clarity...

My question related to calculating the call amount vs final pot & comparing to our calculated 'worst case' pot equity of 31%
I am hoping to learn the relationship between those two and understand if which math is right... That way we can see where the tipping point is for a call when other hands are added to villians range (eg AQ, JJ) which would boost our pot equity to 50%.

I suggested we can divide the amount we need to call by the final pot - and come up with a percentage - Hawk calculates a bit differently.
I am then wondering if this percentage relates directly to pot equity and that point and can help guide our decision.

TJ (ty also for the reply) said it 'seems ok' - which was also a little disconcerting as I would think this is an known science and we can say definitively yes or no. His points about AK play are appreciated and accepted but this question is just for example and not really about playing AK.

BTW - yes, 100BB stacks for both to keep it simple...

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