Getting value from TPGK OOP

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I think you should be betting around 60% on the river and he won't fold out much of his range that he'd call your bet with and he'd probably be less inclined to try and bluff at it.

That makes sense, and I often bet these type of hands for 60-80% pot. However, to be honest, I am not very good at judging a villain's threshold to call the river. If I bet pot, I doubt he'd call with less than TP-decent kicker, but I'm not sure at what betting amount he would fold, say, A9 or A4 or TT.

And is bet / check/call / bet the best line here? How would you play the hand?

Originally Posted by Malbrack

And is bet / check/call / bet the best line here? How would you play the hand?

vs passive/weak players this is a bet/bet/bet. c/c on the turn is a disaster vs passive players because you miss so much value, and there aren't many worse hands they'll be betting. A lot of weak/passive players will either check an Ax or bet tiny.

Originally Posted by d0zer

vs passive/weak players this is a bet/bet/bet. c/c on the turn is a disaster vs passive players because you miss so much value, and there aren't many worse hands they'll be betting. A lot of weak/passive players will either check an Ax or bet tiny.

If the villain will station down with like A8-AJ or worse in his range, then I see how bet/bet/bet is great. But what about a villain who calls your third bet with a range that you only have 34% equity against? Or do you think I am over-emphasizing how much a third bet narrows a villain's range?

Originally Posted by Malbrack

If the villain will station down with like A8-AJ or worse in his range, then I see how bet/bet/bet is great. But what about a villain who calls your third bet with a range that you only have 34% equity against? Or do you think I am over-emphasizing how much a third bet narrows a villain's range?

If this was a reg who won't pay off 3 streets then you'll only get 1-2, but then I'd still bet turn and maybe c/f river depending on stuff. It's hard to know with your reads, it doesn't sound like you actually know very much about this villain.

Here's some info about this villain that I'd use if I had no HUD and had been paying attention. If he's not open limping, are his bet sizes reasonable on all streets? Is he opening more from BU/CO than EP? rough cold call preflop frequency etc.

There's really not that much that beats you, there is an OESD on board so just bet turn.