forming ranges around exploitive play.

thanks for responding. as for your statement regarding his stack-off frequency with AK, we never have enough equity to 3b KK with intentions of stacking off against KK+,AKs,AKo, as we only have


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

47% equity. of course this is based on two assumptions, namely:
- that we never want to 3b a hand that won't have >50% equity vs his stacking off range
- that he doesn't 4b QQ (which seems reasonable for such a nit, and a very low 4b frequency)

the first of those two points was one of the stumbling blocks i encountered in making the original post, so it could well be wrong. if you're interested, the main reason i held that assumption can be found in the first post in this thread:
Some Pre-Flop 3-Betting Concerns

which basically states exactly what i said (unless i misinterpreted)

as for your analogy with rock/paper/scissors, i don't think this is accurate/applicable. i know that, due to his fold frequency, i can literally 3bet ANY two cards and have it be +EV in a vacuum. but the idea of forming our whole range isn't concerned with what plays are +EV in a vacuum, i don't think, but instead how to form or range to maximise the EV of the whole range versus his range in these situations. i base this comment around two sections of your post:

"he can't immediately exploit your wider 3betting range."

and

"I'm not saying your longterm strategy should be to throw rock in this type of spot 100% of the time, but he can't adjust before you do it, so go for it."

in this case, i am very definitely trying to determine my long-term strategy, because, as i mentioned, if this hand was played in a complete vacuum, i could 3bet any two as a bluff and be +EV. and thus i'd probably keep the "3bet for value", and "flat-call" ranges as they are, and turn ALL the rest of my possible holdings into my 3b bluff range (because every single hand i could hold has a positive expectation if i 3bet it here). but the thing is, i'm not considering this in a vacuum. and i obviously can't 3bet 70% of hands in these spots. because he will wake up.

again, i'm a fish. i know that there is every chance i am wrong here. but these are my thoughts in response to your post.

Two things @ RPM

1. Whatever that article says, when you add in the equity of his, "4b/fold range: 4 combos (20% of 4betting range)" 3 betting KK will become +ev.

2. Its true you could probably 3bet bluff atc profitably here, but that doesn't mean you should, or that I'm advocating that strategy. The reason we don't though is for a very specific reason. Any time we exploit a player who is paying attention, we lose some future equity because that same play becomes less profitable In the immediate future.

Also, when we choose widen our 3bet bluffing range, we may be adding hands that are less profitable. That's why 3betting something like 8To here would be a mistake. That hand uses up our profitable spot, but the play is much closer to marginal than If we had waited around for a decent hand.

The thing is I doubt you can give me a good reason why you would 3bet bluff A9o, but not ATo or A7o.

@ Chatzilla I think 3 betting small PPs is shit terrible in this spot. When we 3bet a small PP we hit some kind of equity sooooo infrequently. The only times I would advocate 3betting small PPs are potentially deep IP (not sure at all about this, Id probably still rather have 78s), or if we have enough of a 4betting dynamic with a villain, and felt 3betting with the intension of 5 bet jam/bluffing would be profitable. In that situations small PPs are great because their equity is so much better against somewhat light stack off ranges than a SC or something or other hands we might end up stacking off with.

To ilustrate that point:
Hand 0: 39.044% 38.83% 00.22% 223374456 1256664.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 60.956% 60.74% 00.22% 349446360 1256664.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 0: 33.065% 21.17% 11.89% 169669740 95303310.00 { AQo}
Hand 1: 66.935% 55.04% 11.89% 441081912 95303310.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 0: 31.727% 31.46% 00.27% 114203284 968370.00 { JTs }
Hand 1: 68.273% 68.01% 00.27% 246868424 968370.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

That being said, I feel like this definitely isn't one of thoes spots, and small PPs just arent going to play as well. When we 3bet a hand IP, our position and initiative Is going to put us in a ton of spots where we are able to utilize every bit of equity we pick up, and for this reason I feel SC etc play much better in this spot. Then again, I have no problem with 3 betting primarily hands that block our opponents continuing range.

Btw, this a standard flat with AXs for everyone?

Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

Two things @ RPM

1. Whatever that article says, when you add in the equity of his, "4b/fold range: 4 combos (20% of 4betting range)" 3 betting KK will become +ev.

sounds like you haven't bothered to read it? first, let's be clear: no-one is saying that 3betting KK isn't +EV. it has already been established that 3betting 72o is +EV. that's a fact. maths tells us so. also, our equity versus his 4b/fold range (when we plan to 5b shove) is irrelevant because we put the money in against his 4b/call range.

Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

The thing is I doubt you can give me a good reason why you would 3bet bluff A9o, but not ATo or A7o.

i already gave my exact reasoning for this. i flat ATo here because i think that ATo is profitable to flat against his opening range due to it containing so many Ax hands, and the fact that he will probably Cbet a lot of A high flops (so he often value bets for us when we flop top pair).

as for A9o, i decided (you can disagree, that's fine) that i didn't think it was profitable enough to flat, however it is somewhere near the "top" of my "folding range", plus it increases my fold equity against his range, and has decent equity versus his 3bet flatting range. as for A7o, i could see myself 3bet bluffing this hand for sure. for the same reasons i would consider A9o a good candidate for 3bet bluffing versus this guy.

that's as close as my poker knowledge allows me to get to a "good reason" to flat a certain hand versus a range, or to 3bet it as a bluff. what was your point in saying that anyway? do you know of more important factors to take into consideration in determining what hands to flat/3b bluff?

First off i apologize, I always come off as an asshole on these forums. Not intending to be harsh towards anyone, especially you as you post on my hands/analysis alot which I appreciate as you're way more expeirenced than me.

I was confused by "flat: 22-QQ,A2s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s" Didn't realise ATo was supposed to be in there.

The biggest point I'm trying to make here, is that there's like no difference between 3betting A7o and A8/A9. I mean if we put together a range now to exploit this player and dont adjust it based on the flow of the game I think its pretty bad.

My point is raising A6o here is very close equity wise to raising A8o. If he raises and you have either one of those hands, I don't understand why you would make the decision to fold. I mean these ranges aren't something we have to stick to.

Like in your situation I'd probably 3bet any Ax and kxs I was folding, then not 3bet him except for value for a few rounds if I thought he was good enough to adjust.

In 3bet bluffing here I feel among those hands the importance of how recently I've 3 bet him is >>> the difference between a3-a8

Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

First off i apologize, I always come off as an asshole on these forums.

no problems. i'm sure i come across in the same way from time to time.

Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

I was confused by "flat: 22-QQ,A2s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s" Didn't realise ATo was supposed to be in there.

i see now where a lot of the confusion was coming from. i fucked up in the first post. if ATo was the worst Axo in my flatting range (and i thought all Axs were profitable enough to flat), A9o would be the first candidate to 3b bluff. if A9o was the worst Axo in my flatting range, A8o would be the first candidate to 3b bluff etc.

edit: and i fucked up in every post thereafter.