thanks for responding. as for your statement regarding his stack-off frequency with AK, we never have enough equity to 3b KK with intentions of stacking off against KK+,AKs,AKo, as we only have
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
47% equity. of course this is based on two assumptions, namely:
- that we never want to 3b a hand that won't have >50% equity vs his stacking off range
- that he doesn't 4b QQ (which seems reasonable for such a nit, and a very low 4b frequency)
the first of those two points was one of the stumbling blocks i encountered in making the original post, so it could well be wrong. if you're interested, the main reason i held that assumption can be found in the first post in this thread:
Some Pre-Flop 3-Betting Concerns
which basically states exactly what i said (unless i misinterpreted)
as for your analogy with rock/paper/scissors, i don't think this is accurate/applicable. i know that, due to his fold frequency, i can literally 3bet ANY two cards and have it be +EV in a vacuum. but the idea of forming our whole range isn't concerned with what plays are +EV in a vacuum, i don't think, but instead how to form or range to maximise the EV of the whole range versus his range in these situations. i base this comment around two sections of your post:
"he can't immediately exploit your wider 3betting range."
and
"I'm not saying your longterm strategy should be to throw rock in this type of spot 100% of the time, but he can't adjust before you do it, so go for it."
in this case, i am very definitely trying to determine my long-term strategy, because, as i mentioned, if this hand was played in a complete vacuum, i could 3bet any two as a bluff and be +EV. and thus i'd probably keep the "3bet for value", and "flat-call" ranges as they are, and turn ALL the rest of my possible holdings into my 3b bluff range (because every single hand i could hold has a positive expectation if i 3bet it here). but the thing is, i'm not considering this in a vacuum. and i obviously can't 3bet 70% of hands in these spots. because he will wake up.
again, i'm a fish. i know that there is every chance i am wrong here. but these are my thoughts in response to your post.
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