Folding nut flush at the river

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from Hero (MP) ($67.93)
Button ($58.67)
SB ($48.61)
BB ($50.75)
UTG ($8.93)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, 3
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 10, 4, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.25) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

River: ($22.25) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB raises to $39.75 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $50.25 | Rake: $2.26


Sigh.... Anyone looking him up here? He's like 35/25 over 75 hands, high 3bet, high river aggression, but too early to rely on most of these, so basically I'd treat him largely as an unknown since I haven't seen or noted a big river bluff from him yet.

Another thought on this - I _really_ wanted to check behind the river, but I was 99.9% sure that would be giving up value, so alternatively does anyone check behind the turn for pot control then call or bet-call reasonable river bets/raises?

I do have a question in my mind over whether we give up a fair bit of value here to the T3cc bridage who slowplayed their monster to jam the river, and end up folding the best hand enough for this to be a bad fold.

I really don't put it past a lot of players at these limits to jam a worse flush on the river here after slowplaying from the flop, but I guess it's hard for him to have clubs too and for there to be 3 on the flop. We get a really good price on the river for him to have some kind of slowplayed junk clubs, but I still stand by the fold unless/until corrected.

b/f river

Originally Posted by bikes

b/f river

Yeah, I figured. Hopefully I played it OK, but it's just such a sick spot on the river - I knew I had to bet-fold it, but I sized the river bet a little smaller than usual because I expected to fold it, probably a mistake there.

Would you ever consider checking the turn so we could look the river up on the cheap, since a lot of worse flushes can think they are good here, especially at these limits? I guess we give up a ton of value there, but we also get some information on what he'd think was good.

One more thought on this hand - if we had only a pot-sized shove left on the river here, do you shove for value, or check behind?

I'm calling the river shove. I hate that the board paired, though. Who calls every street and then check/shoves the river? What is that?

TT would have 3-bet pre-flop. Villain has to raise the turn with 55 or 44 for value, probably 5x hands, too. Pocket 33 is the only thing left that has Hero beat. A2 and 76s are all there, too, but Hero beats them.

It makes more sense that Villain has KcTd, something like a pair and a draw, and they think you missed your draw and bluffed the river.

I can't put Villain on a range that makes sense that beats Hero, so I'm still tempted to call.

Yeah MMM, I get you. I still think it's a b/f, but it's such a tempting spot to look him up.

I totally get the "what is that" thought - but you must have fish do that to you with a set pretty often, in the most bizarre spots, like they c/c the flop, check the turn (even check it behind) then minraise the river and get their extra 8bb of value in a nothing pot.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

who calls every street and then check/shoves the river? What is that?

45 is there too.

Just a quick thought on the maths of this, if we can discount A2/67 and 33 from his river shoving range, which I think is reasonable, then he can have 13 boat combos that beat us, and 36 flush combos that we beat. Given that he doesn't check-shove his really weak flush combos very often (even if he's a complete fish) we can probably halve that and say he has about the same number of combos that we beat as he has combos which beat us.

So on that basis, we could call given the price we get, but I still don't think we can call, since I think he probably doesn't check-shove the river with a lot of the medium-strength flushes.

On the flip side of this coin, does he really check the river with his full houses that often, and risk us checking behind? I guess if he's the slowplay-everything fish sort, perhaps he does.

Mathematically, what price _would_ you want to look him up here? Would you do it for 4:1, 5:1?

Not folding.

Why are we folding to a 35/25 here?

if

People don't slow play non nut flushes. Ima fold!

Originally Posted by bikes

b/f river

Originally Posted by kickass

People don't slow play non nut flushes. Ima fold!

/thread

Originally Posted by kickass

People don't slow play non nut flushes

yes they do, I'm calling this.

Villain c/jam K flush at river after calling twice? I doubt it. Bluff maybe.

I missed the read saying high river aggression. Maybe I call this after all. Maybe he bricked his Kc.

never, ever giving anyone credit here unless I have a read they will call twice with set or 54s without raising flop or turn. Could even have worse flushes if he's gonna play boats like this, so I call. Also I think turning hands into bluffshoves on river has trickled down to about 50nl due to videos i.e. 7c7x that called twice, at something like 10 though ur prolly beat 95%.

Never folding against this guy.