Quote Originally Posted by djbruxism
i'm sorry, but i have to reply guys.

I don't believe in luck/rushes/rabbits feet/whatever.

But i do believe that there might be some mathematical reasoning to make this fold +EV. I know, it's crazy, but hear me out.

Ok, lets say, i have some more knowledge on villian. I know he will be here for the next 5 to 6 hours. I know he has very deep pockets. I know i'm better than him.

But i also know i've played badly/got sucked out on today. I only brought 5 buyins to the casino, and i'm down to my last one.

If i take this coinflip, which, as discussed is +EV, and lose, my day is over. That villian will sit at that table for the next 5 hours and just leak chips to everyone at that table. Unfortunately, i won't be one of them.

If i pass up a + EV decision now, for the sole purpose of enabling myself to make a +++EV decision later, i think i'm putting myself in a better position.

It can also work in reverse. end of a sit and go, and I'm clearly outclassed. Let's say Phil Ivey is sitting opposite me. I've got 2 choices. Slowly but surely bleed all of my chips to a better player than me. Or (and this is the move i would make) All In on every single hand, without looking at my cards. Phil's gotta call sooner or later, and unless i get really unlucky and he gets dealt pockets aces, he's probably got to call with anything decent (low pockets, Ax broadways etc) Against a random hand like that, i'm probably 30% to win.

Sure this is -EV, but in my opinion, if i was to try to beat phil any other way, it would ---EV.

just my two cents.
None of this was in the OP's post. He posted a hand, nothing more. he asked for advice on a hand, nothing more.

Every person here who mentioned luck as a factor to fold, raise, or drink another redbull that plays above $25NL raise your hand. That's what I thought. If you look at this thread, there are players here with $5K, $10K and $25K bankrolls, and there are players talking about luck. neither are the same people and never will be.