It is bad for ones poker money to play guessing games. It is even worse to give up an edge because the other guy has been geting lucky. I believe that some people are not wired to play poker. They have the i got burnt the last 3 times i touched the stove so i ain't touching the stove anymore mentality. The op seems to imply that the fact that his opponent had been geting lucky factored in to his decesion. That is bad thinking as frankly you never know when it is the others guys turn to be lucky.