Quote Originally Posted by ZowieZ
With AK and money int he pot already, it would have been correct to cal against any random hand. But poker decisions should not be made simply on the math.
Not to beat a dead horse, but I just want to stress that the decision to call here is not one based only on math, but that doesn't mean that math should be ignored. And this particular decision happens to be a more math-oriented one, because the EV calculations are easier than a normal decision. You can either call or fold, and either decision will be the last one that either player makes. This makes the calculations pretty easy. If you fold, the final EV of the decision is zero. So you just calculate the EV of calling and call if it's greater than zero.

Quote Originally Posted by ZowieZ
The OP stated he felt he had a solid read on the player. He included his read in his decision making. And, as it turned out, his read was correct.
Right, and the read can be expressed in mathematical terms. When the OP says he's pretty sure that the opponent has a pocket pair, he is stating his expected range of the opponent. This range can be plugged into pokerstove (or any other poker odds calculator) and it will return the chance the a given range will win (after all cards are out) vs. another range. We know our range (AKo), and villians range (any pocket pair, which is expressed as 22+), so the results are:

Code:
           equity     win       tie
Hand 0:    42.743%    42.49%    00.25%    { AKo }
Hand 1:    57.257%    57.01%    00.25%    { 22+ }
So if OP calls, AKo will win 42.7% of the time, and it will lose 57.3% of the time. These numbers can be used in calculating the EV of calling . It's just the chance of winning times the amount you win when you call minus the chance of losing times the amount you lose when you call. And remember, the amount in the pot belongs to nobody anymore, so that amount is not included as part of the amount lost when you call, but it is included in the amount you win (aka dead money). In this case there is already $46 in the pot when your decision happens ($12+$17+$17).

You have to put in $78 to call. So when you lose, you lose $78 (the $78 you just put in). When you win, you win $124 (you get the $78 you just put in back, plus the $78 the opponent put in, plus the $46 already in the pot). So the calcualtion becomes:

EVcall = .427 * $124 + .573 * -$78 = $8.25

So calling is worth $8.25 on average and folding is worth $0.

So taking everything into account (both the reads and the math), a call is the right decision. The math can't be wrong, so as long is the read is solid, a call is definitely right.

In practice, the method that zook used above of comparing winning odds to pot odds makes it a little easier to calculate and much more succinct to show, but I wanted to go through the actual EV method for demonstration purposes.

Quote Originally Posted by ZowieZ
I don't think the OP was playing with "scared money," as one responder concluded. The OP decided to lay down a coin flip hand in a cash game.
In a cash game, your goal is to make the most cash, and $8.25 > $0. The statement you made fails to take into account that there is already a significant amount of money in the pot (and also the hand isn't as close to a coinflip as overcards vs. underpair, because AA and KK are both included in the range).

Quote Originally Posted by ZowieZ
Nothing wrong with that decision, IMO.
A decision to fold here is either a result of a misunderstanding of the EV calculations, or a result of scared money (i.e. you understand a call is +EV but fold anyway because calling is a high-variance play). Either way, there is something wrong with a decision to fold.