The 4899:1 odds are correct. Here is why.

I'm only calculating the probability of flopping a straight flush with suited connectors with at least 3 cards on both sides that can be used. (ie, JQ will not work since you only have AK above that). To do this, you need to consider all straight flushes possible. For 98s, these cards must be considered:



Looking at the diagram above, you can see that we can make 4 different straight flushes here. Let's narrow down to a single straight flush, say:



The odds of flopping this flush if you hold the 8 and 9 is:

Odds = 3/50*2/49*1/48 = 1/14700 = 0.0068%
(incidently, this is the odds of flopping a royal flush if you hold 2 suited cards T or higher)

Explained quickly, there are 3 cards that can come up on the first flopped card, 2 on the second, and one on the third. Now, going back to before... since there are 4 different straight flushes we can get with 98s, the odds of flopping a flush are the above multiplied by 4. This is:

Odds = 4(3/50*2/49*1/48) = 1/4900 = 0.02%



Good to know that after 4900 hands you might flop a straight flush. Sucks that you probably got it in EP and folded it.



Darkwing